Mataf صافي - الفوركس تداول الارتباط جدول المثلث

ماتافنفوركسترادينغكوريلاتيونابل نيا زاليزني أود تيغو كزي بلدي مامي راسي سيزي بيبي تي زروبيلز زل وزي تيلكو 50 أوكريسو بود أوواغ، ردز زروبي إلى سامو دو 150 200 250 500 1000 زا كادم رازيم بدزيزز ميا إن وارتوسي. بيتاني جاكي أودبويدني أوكريس بادا بانوي، نيا ميلمي بوج. W تيم تيماسي نيا تشودزي o الثلاثي التحكيم تسي كتو تو ويدزي جاك ترزيسي والوت. تيلكو أودبويدزيام نا تو بيس بيززا ترزيسنتي ترزيسنتي بيز: 1. GBPusd8 EURusd5 زاتم ورغب 0.625 (w غور بوسزيدل) ناتومياست spread8-53 (مام زيسك) 2. GBPusd8 EURusd3 زاتم ورغب 0،375 (سبادل) ناتومياست spread8-35 (زيسك) a إلى جيست زديج مي سي الثلاثي التحكيم ماجيكترادر ​​بيز: بدزي إلى مويا جاكي 80-90، إيل إلى نيا سامو A بوترافيتز إلى جاكو أودودني. تويردزك e 80-90 تيم ساميم تويردزيس e روناني أب بك كا جيست نيا بوبراون i e كروس i تاك إدزي سوج دروغ. سيتات غرينا green7 بيز: وينيكيم دزياانيا: أب بك كا جيست زاوز 1. I زا كولر نيا تشس بي إيناكزج - جيلي كي نيا ويرزي نيتش بودستاوي بود أبك دوولن وارتوسي أنا سبراودزي مو سي سي مايل سيغل تروم w أوبارتيم e تاك نيا جيست إيل جاكو فاكتي دو موني باردزيج بتو موس بواسطة جاكي زرزوتي z دروفيج ستروني، وتيدي تومات باردزيج سي روزويني 04 سي 2008، 22:16 جنسك: ماجيك زاكزينام تريبي o كو تشودزي بوبراو مني جيلي سي ميل زارابيامي نا رنيكاش ميدزي سكادانيم ورغب z إدكا أنا كابلا a كيستيم ورغب ناجبروسيج وزيستكو أوجموجك: زارابيامي نا تيم، e جيدنا بارا رادزي سوبي غورزيج، a دروغنا ليبيج. كوبوجيمي t كترا رادزي سوبي غورزيج، a سبرزداجيمي t كترا رادزي سوبي ليبيج. W ميل، e باري s زي سكورلوين i زا جاكي تشاس تا كترا رادزيا سوبي غورزيج بدزي رادزي سوبي ليبيج i أودوروتني. جيدناك نيا جيست دو كوكا تاك، e أوسيغامي زيسك تيلكو وتدي، غدي كورس كروسا زيجدزي بونيج سيني z تشاسو أوتوارسيا بوهيسجي نا يو i غو. كو ويدا سكرين بونيج، كتري بي جو ورزوكاني. بونكت نازيغو زيسكو برزي ديلسي ليكزونيج أود كونكريتنيج داتي (سيزيلي بيز موليوسي ريبينتو) سيغل برزيسوا سي بو ويكريزي إغ. غديبي مياوبي بي تاك، e ناس زيسك زالي تيلكو i ويزني أود بوينيا إغ تو ليني ناسيغو زيسكو بوينا بي لينيا بروستا أود كورسو z كتريغو زوستا ناليزانا دلتا دلا إغ. بوزا تيم سبرياد ميدزي يو i غو بوينيان من قبل وتيدي روني إغ، وهو جاك ويدا نيا جيست. زالوغوج سي (لوب زاريجيستروج)، أبي زوباكزي بليكى زاكزون دو تيغو بوستو. كلمة المرور التعليمات قائمة الأعضاء المجموعات الإجتماعية التقويم اجعل كافة الأقسام مقروءة المواضيع ذات الصلة. ستايل وونيفرزال ستورزوني برزيز ويب. أوسترزيني O ريزيكو. ترانزاكجي فوريكس أوراز كفد أوبارت نا دويغني فينانزويج s ويسوس ريزيكون دلا توجيغو كابيتاو، بونيوا ستراتي موج برزويسي ديبوزيت. دلاتيغو تي، فوريكس أوراز كونتراكتي كفد موج ناي بي أودبويدني دلا وزيستكيتش إنويستورو. ناي نالي ريزيكوا ويسج، ني جيست سي غوتويم ستراسي. منحنى بودجسيم ديسيزجي o ترانزاكجي أوبونيج سي، e روزوميز زويزان z نيمي ريزيكا أنا جيلي جيست إلى كونيكشن زاسيغنيج نيزالينيج بورادي. مؤشر قوة العملة الرسم البياني يمثل معدل حركة سعر التغيير للعملات الرئيسية الثماني قياسها مع التخصصات الرئيسية الأخرى. يعرض التطبيق معدل التغيير تعزيز وإضعاف فيما يتعلق الأخرى (ق) كما اختارها المستخدم. العديد من التجار تطبيق استراتيجيات القائمة على الزخم تفضل مطابقة العملات التي هي 8216Strengthing8217 و 8216 ويكوينينغ 8217 بدلا من 8216Strong8217 و 8216Weak8217. يتم احتساب النسبة المئوية للتغيير من أزواج الفوركس الفردية ومن ثم تجميعها مع مثل النوع. ثم يتم تجميع معدل التغيرات لإحداث تغيير نسبة لكل مجموعة من المجموعات الثماني. ثم يتم رسم هذه التجميعات الثمانية للتغير في الرسم البياني معا مما يسمح بإجراء مقارنات سريعة وتحليل متعمق للعملات الأساسية. مستوى الدخول هذه الصفحة وتطبيق مستوى الدخول هنا المقصود فقط كمقدمة في قياس وتحليل نقاط قوة العملة. الغرض منه هو وسيلة سريعة جدا، لا مشاحنات لرؤية ما يحدث في إجمالي سوق الفوركس الكبرى. على سبيل المثال في لندن مفتوحة أو نيويورك مفتوحة أو نيويورك الأسهم مفتوحة في الجزء السفلي من الساعة الثانية. أو في كثير من الأحيان للعودة المستخدمين على مر السنين، على الإفراج الاقتصادي تأثير كبير مثل الوظائف غير الزراعية للحصول على فكرة عامة عن التدفقات. لذلك، فإن مخطط القوة أعلاه يهدف إلى تقديم فكرة عامة عن التدفقات العامة أو تغيرات المشاعر الجذرية. (نوقشت أدناه تحت قسم المنحدر) ولكن أساسا، ويهدف أكثر لنهاية اليوم وعطلة نهاية الأسبوع التفكير والبحث. وليس المقصود حقا هذا التطبيق ليتم تحليلها على أساس كل دقيقة على حدة لاتخاذ القرارات على المدى القصير. كما لوحظ إذا كان هذا هو في الواقع نيتكم، يرجى الحصول على الأدوات المهنية الفعلية التي تستخدم تدفق البيانات. هذا هو بالطبع، إذا كنت تخطط على جعل مهنة من هذا الشيء التجاري. النسبة المئوية التبسيطية لطريقة التغيير لتحليل قوة الأزواج الفردية تختلف عن سلائف صيغة قوة العملة القياسية التي يتم استخدامها داخل 5NITRO ميتاتريدر الجديدة 4 أمتار. في حين أن هذه الصيغة نسبة التغيير المستخدمة هنا قد تعتبر أقل شأنا من الصيغة المستخدمة في 5N التي تم إنشاؤها أصلا من قبل توماس يومانز من نوفا سكوتيا خلال منتصف 2000s، ويكفي لأغراض التحليل العام هنا. عرض مزيد من المعلومات بالتفصيل صيغة كسم القياسية وتكامل السلائف في جميع إصدارات متر نيترو نحصل عليه. أنت في مرحلة بحثية تمهيدية. أنت غير متأكد ما إذا كان استخدام 8216currency نقاط القوة 8217 داخل التداول الخاص بك قد أو قد لا تكون قابلة للحياة. حتى يتم اعتبار أداة أو طريقة قابلة للحياة أو على الأقل يمكن أن تكون قابلة للحياة، فمن المنطقي للحفاظ على مسح الإنترنت محاولة الخروج التكرار الحرة. ولكن، يفترض البحث التجار أن تجد هذا النوع من أداة ونوع التحليل مفيد من شأنه أن يسعى بالتأكيد إلى التخرج إلى أكثر قوة، وتطبيق متميز كامل. على هذا النحو، عندما نجار المتدرب في النهاية يخلص إلى أن المطرقة أو المنشار في الواقع على حد سواء مفيدة للغاية في مهنة النجارة وسوف يكون دائما، وقال انه أو انها تلتزم أخيرا لشراء أدواتهم الخاصة جدا لصندوق الأدوات. يتم اتخاذ هذا القرار الاستثماري طويل الأجل بدلا من الاستمرار في اقتراض الآخرين 8217 أدوات على أساس يومي للسنوات الأربعين المقبلة بعض السنوات الفردية. أو على عكس مشكوك فيه آخر، والإصرار الغريب أن جميع الأدوات يجب أن يكون دائما مجانا توم Yeomans8217 الرائد تقديم اسمه أكوستيرثينغ هو حاليا أفضل ما هو متاح. بالتأكيد، هناك إعادة تجميع من القديم زميتر وجدت على الفضيحة MT4 التطبيق السوق من الباعة احتيال هناك. ولكن حتى Yeomans8217 مستوى الدخول فوركسسناب (على شبكة الإنترنت) أو الإصدارات القديمة FX4Caster وفوركس غرايل كل ما يفوق قوة الرسم البياني التطبيق على هذه الصفحة أو المؤشرات المتاحة في أي مكان من حيث الاستخدام اليومي للتاجر الوظيفي. تبسيط تنظيم فرص بأغلبية ساحقة ضد كنت قادرة على قفل أسفل أن بعيد المنال، والكمال، والخيال، 8216intraday نظام سلخ فروة الرأس 8217 باستخدام أي إصدار قوة متر (أو أي مؤشر في العالم لهذه المسألة) والتي يمكن استخدامها بعد ذلك إلى بلا حدود - كرر طريقك إلى قائمة فوربس بيليونير ولكن مع العلم بالضبط ما يحدث في سوق الفوركس بأكمله مع مجرد لمحة سريعة يجب أن توفر أرباح واقعية لانهائية قيمة هذا تبسيط السوق الكلي من الصعب قياس في البداية أو المشروع، ولكن يبدو الحصول على الأدوات التي قد تفعل ذلك يكون الاستثمار المنطقي الثاني عند بدء مهنة التداول. ويبدو أن أول استثمار منطقي هو آلة أو آلات مناسبة تقدم خيارات عرض كافية مع مساحة عمل لوتسا لجميع المعلومات الإضافية المرتبطة. مؤشرات قوة العملة جنبا إلى جنب مع تكوينات 5NITRO هيتماب التي تم إنشاؤها حديثا جنبا إلى جنب مع الاجهزة غير مكلفة متعددة رصد بشكل لا يصدق جنبا إلى جنب مع ذاكرة الوصول العشوائي بالجملة غير مكلفة بشكل مثير للدهشة جنبا إلى جنب مع أجهزة وحدة المعالجة المركزية متعددة النوى كل تضيف ما يصل إلى صورة السوق الكامل. هذه الأدوات الأساسية مجتمعة إدخال القدرة على التداول الآن وإدارة العديد من أزواج فكس، بيتسوانز، العقود مقابل الفروقات، السلع والمؤشرات، والعقود الآجلة، والسندات، والبوند، وخيارات الفوركس التقليدية. إن التنويع، والتباين، والحد من المخاطر التي تسمح بها هذه الأدوات يجب أن توفر حقا توزيعات واقعية لا حصر لها طوال مهنة كاملة. خذ بعض الربح قوة الرسم البياني أيضا يمكن أن توفر منظور طول الاتجاه وتشبع ذروة البيع النسبية. أوبوس على الأطر الزمنية أقل في كثير من الأحيان عموما محفوفة بالمخاطر جدا كنقاط الدخول الاتجاه المعاكس، أو بدلا من ذلك وقف والعكس مشغلات. أوبوس على أطر زمنية أقل هو عموما أفضل في خدمة مجالات لبدء التفكير في أخذ بعض الأرباح في نسبة مئوية من الوحدات. متوسط ​​الانعكاس هذا الطول الزائد للنطاقات الزائدة النسبية ومناطق أوبوس على أطر زمنية أعلى بمثابة مؤشرات محتملة لاستراتيجيات الانعكاس المتوسطة أو للتحوط من المخاطر. ويرد في القسم الأخير أدناه ملاحظات عميقة لمتوسط ​​العائد على الإطار الزمني الأسبوعي. لا يمكن أن يتم إنشاؤها ولا تدميرها القوة والضعف يمكن أن 8230 فقط تحويل الرسم البياني مؤشر القوة بدوره يعطينا تدفق المال إلى أو من العملة الرئيسية واحد فيما يتعلق السبعة الآخرين. هناك علاقة عكسية عالية بشكل كبير. هذا الارتباط هو 100 المطلق في الرسم البياني القوة أعلاه لأن الصيغة تتألف من 100 من ثمانية وثلاثين أزواج العملات الرئيسية. وينطبق الشيء نفسه على معظم كسم الأخرى. ولكن كما نعلم، فإن العالم وسوق الفوركس يتكون من أكثر من مجرد ثمانية مناطق رئيسية والعملات بالطبع. هذه الصيغة ومعظم صيغ كسم الأخرى لا تشمل مثل أزواج مثل ورهكد، أوسدروب، أوسني، أو غبغد كأمثلة. ولذلك، فإن هذا الارتباط العكسي المثالي وخاصية مجموع الصفر لا ينطبق في الواقع خارج هذه التطبيقات. ولكن في جزء كبير منها يقاس في حجم فكس السنوي الإجمالي، يتم استخدام العائدات المستلمة من بيع عملة رئيسية ثماني رئيسية على الفور لشراء أي مزيج من سبع عملات رئيسية أخرى 8230. في وقت واحد. بسبب 8216Zero Sum8217 المنطق النظري، وهذا النوع من القدرة على التحليل التي يقدمها متر قوة العملة هي فريدة من نوعها لسوق الفوركس. مثال على العكس من ذلك: عندما يتدفق المال من أسهم أسهم معينة كمثال على ذلك، وهذا لا يعني بالضرورة أن نفس الأموال سوف تستخدم على الفور لشراء إضافية، على حدة قياس الأسهم 8230. في وقت واحد. المتتبع القائد في حين أن معظم البحوث قائد المتابع على مر السنين قد خصص لأزواج الفوركس، إضافة مخطط قوة العملة يمكن أن تحسن بشكل كبير الاستراتيجيات القائمة على هذه النظريات. لمزيد من المعلومات في العمق والتحليل مخصصة لاتباع قائد، والبحث عن البحث فوركس الآلي. يعتمد متابع القائد بشكل كبير على الأطر الزمنية أو الفترة الزمنية التي يتم فيها قياس الأزواج، على غرار تقلب الارتباطات. كما توسع الفوركس الآلي على مؤشر قوة ارتباط سعر الصرف 8216Currency8217 الجديد. سيرسي هو قياس جديد تماما توفير صفر-لاغ قوة الارتباط. الإطار الزمني الزخم أفكار الزخم المنحدر والفضاء يبدو أنه بالنسبة لمتوسط ​​الزخم أو سوينغ ترادر، فإن الزاوية أو المنحدر بالاقتران مع الغرفة المتاحة للتحرك قد يمثلان أقل المخاطر وأكثر فرص مثالية على مدى فترة طويلة من الزمن وكبيرة بما يكفي من حجم العينة . معنى، وليس أي تجارة واحدة معينة. ولكن بدلا من ذلك، Let8217s يقول على مدى سنة واحدة و 200 فرصة الفرص. ويبدو أن زاوية حادة متطرفة، ويفضل أن تكون ممتدة للإشارة إلى إدخال تدفق المال الحقيقي من وإلى تلك النقطة. ويستخدم غان غريد الموردة في جميع منصات MT4 عادة لقياس زاوية والنسبية على مؤشرات قوة العملة ميتاتريدر 4 مثل مقياس التدفق القديم لدينا. تاريخيا، استمرار احتمال كبير عندما تظهر هذه المنحدرات الحادة. ويزيد هذا الاحتمال مع زيادة الإطار الزمني بافتراض أن التفاح لمقارنات التفاح مع زاوية وطول المنحدر الحاد الأولي متساويان من الناحية النسبية. بسبب هذا الاحتمال التاريخي العالي، جدولة جزء من الإدخالات المقصود باستخدام أوامر الحد على ما غالبا ما يكون مرات لا مفر منه 61.8 الارتداد يمكن أن تساعد في كثير من الأحيان للحد من مخاطر الدخول للجزء الأولي الموقف في حين 8216chasin نقطة 8217 في تدفق قوي. أو، باستخدام أطروحات تصحيحات مشتركة لإعادة إدخال عن طريق استبدال بعض الوحدات التي قد يكون لها أخذ الأرباح أخذت بسرعة. زوايا المنحدر 8230 تعني شيئا زوايا حادة تتسرب من التوطيد الموسعة غالبا ما تعني شيئا أكبر. نسبة زاوية المنحدر تفوق عدم متابعة من خلال الفضاء على المخططات قوة مثل هذا. المنحدر حاد هو في الواقع ممثل شيء 8211 تدفق المال الحقيقي. وهو ما يعني، في الواقع يعني شيئا لمعظم المهنيين العالميين. معبر العملة خطوط 8230 يعني أي شيء الباعة كسم وأعضاء النخبة في منتديات النقاش فكس يبدو أن كل لا ينجذب نحو إعطاء المشورة للمستخدمين 8220Take العمل عند خطوط العملة Cross8221. هذه الخطوط العبور، بغض النظر عن زوايا درجة الفعلية التي تشكل، ويجري الترويج باعتبارها نوعا من الظواهر السحرية. العديد من بائعي البرامج كسم و فكس المنتدى النخبة الأعضاء يوصي باستخدام هذه المطالبات عبور الخط كاستراتيجية رئيسية أو فقط. ويفترض أن تتكرر إلى أجل غير مسمى باستخدام نفس العبور عبور كل يوم. ماذا في العالم لا خطوط عبور على مؤشر كسم غامض الذي يستخدم خوارزمية قوة فريدة من نوعها مع إعدادات الصيغة التي يمكن تعديلها و تويكد من قبل كل مستخدم 8230. حتى تشير إلى لا شيء. انها فرصة يحدث ممثل لا شيء، بشكل عام. بالتأكيد، يمكن أن تمثل في بعض الأحيان تدفق الأموال الضخمة والفرص في واحد أو كليهما. ولكن إذا كان التدفق الوافد أو الخارج الضخم هو معلمة الإدخال، ثم جعل هذه المعلمة. كيف من خلال قياس الزوايا، لا يعبر. الصلبان التي سوف تشمل أيضا افتراضيا العديد من 8216sobtle crosses8217. بيناري سيلز ثم لماذا الكثير من البائعين والكثير من التسويق عبر الإنترنت الإعلان عن إشارات بيع شراء خلال اليوم فقط على بعض الانتاج الناتج رسومية بسيطة لبعض أداة الملكية أو تعديل الملكية مثل، على سبيل المثال، عبور خطوط قوة العملة متعرج في أي مكان داخل إطارها في أي المنحدر لأنه، تماما مثلنا، هؤلاء البائعين ربما تتلقى رسائل البريد الإلكتروني من قبل مئات من العملاء والمشترين المحتملين تسعى بلا نهاية لحل ثنائي سهل. كما لو كان هذا موجود بالفعل أو هو في الواقع ممكن 8230 على المدى الطويل. ويعتقد تجار التجزئة الجديدة على المدى القصير، لحظيا، التقنية، للتكرار، طريقة الثنائية موجود لأن البائعين عبر الإنترنت عن الإعلان، وقد أعلنت دائما أنه موجود. تقريبا كل منهم. تقريبا كل موقع تجاري أو قائمة تجارية لدينا جميعا تعثر على مر السنين الإعلان عن شكل من أشكال الضوء الأخضر بسيط، نظام الضوء الأحمر. كل واحد من هذه المؤشرات التجارية السحرية أو مناطق العد قادرة على استغلال بعض الخلل الفني سرية، تجاهلها في أي سوق لإنتاج إشارة ثنائية من شراء أو بيع في أي وقت خلال النهار. خلال أي جلسة. في أي زوج. بغض النظر عن أي أساسيات. ويفترض على مدى عقود، أيهما كان الإعلان عن الزناد التقني بشكل خاص قد تدفق تماما تحت جميع المؤسسات 8217 الرادارات (مثل جولدمان أو فيرتو). ولا حتى المؤسسات 8217 20،000،000،000.00 قيمتها من نفقات تكنولوجيا المعلومات السنوية جنبا إلى جنب والقوى العاملة على الصعيد العالمي على الصعيد العالمي 8230 تمكنوا من تسخير ناهيك عن حتى بقعة هذا بسيط بلا حدود - ثروة مولد للتكرار. متاح للجميع لنا ل 97. إضافة إلى ذلك، هذه الآلاف من التطبيقات الفريدة كلها تقريبا مختلفة مع أساليب عملها. ولكن بعد، بطريقة أو بأخرى سحرية كل استغلال الاكتشاف الفريد الخاص بها من خلل في السوق لإنتاج الأرباح غير المتوقعة لجميع الذين تثبيت. طلب ثنائي طلب العملاء هذه الإشارات الثنائية قصيرة بالضبط. وذلك كوسيلة لبيع المزيد من البرمجيات من خلال ارضاء الجميع وتظهر بسيطة للاستخدام، والباعة خلق هذه الإشارات 8216crossing خط 8217 وهمية من الهواء الرقيق. مبيعات التسويق مع شراء الملونة بيع السهام يبدو أن معنى للمشتري المحتمل عند عرض صفحة البداية. والأهم من ذلك، تظهر بسيطة لتطبيق. بغض النظر عما إذا كان أو لم يكن أي متصفحي الإنترنت شراء في الواقع أو تنجح مع أي من هذه الأدوات والتخادع التسويق من أوهام قطة، وقد عملت التجربة لزيادة الدعاية الخيال إلى جديد، والبحث تجار التجزئة 8217 العقول. أدمغتنا دون وعي جماعي كل من هذا احتيال التسويق إلى واقع واقعي على قدم المساواة. أو على الأقل أن يساوي واقع 8216possible 8217. يختفي دماغي من مجموع تصفح الإنترنت مركب أن 8220 يجب أن يكون من الممكن الحصول على فيراري الأصفر باستخدام مخرجات إشارة فقط من المؤشرات الفنية لأنني رأيت نقاط البيانات التي لا نهاية لها من هذا بالضبط مع عيني، في كل مكان لقد نظرت على شبكة الإنترنت على العديد من سنوات 8221 ثم بعد ذلك، قل لي بالضبط متى لشراء. قل لي بالضبط متى بيع. أريد الاستعانة بمصادر خارجية لقراراتي. أريد الاستعانة بمصادر خارجية تفكيري تماما. يجب أن لا نقلل من قوة وموثوقية 8216Self-فولفيلينغ عامل 8217 داخل منطقتنا اتخاذ القرار الداخلي خوارزمية. عندما نحاول استخدام نقاط الزناد الفنية من أدوات الملكية مع الصيغ مربع أسود والإعدادات، ونحن إزالة تماما يمكن القول إن عامل المعادلة الأكثر أهمية. مثل عند محاولة الاعتماد على النقاط التقنية التي هي محددة جدا لأداة محددة مثل 8216Crossing لينس 8217. بعض لا شك في مناقشة هذا مع 8220Well ماذا عن 5NITRO 6NITRO هم من الواضح الملكية و مربع أسود إلى حد ما. 8221 بالتأكيد، ولكن 5N6N عموما إخراج 8216Momentum Aggregate8217، وتهدف إلى تأكيد الحالية فرص الجمود الحالية. الجمود هو أعظم تحقيق الذات من كل منهم 8230. العودة 2200 سنة. عبور خفية من خطوط العملة أو ستوشاستيك 8230. ليست كذلك. أفكار الإطار الزمني العالي عند تحليل أعلى إطار زمني الرسوم البيانية القياسية من المهنيين، it8217s حقا عن محاولة التعرف على الموازاة الحقيقية المواقف الحقيقية. ومثل لاحظ في 5NITRO تجارة الصفحات. it8217s حول محاولة التعرف على وفك ما خوارزميات المؤسسات 8217 والبحوث الأساسية تشير لهم. نظرة على الرسم البياني زيادة عتبة المخاطر لكل زوج وزيادة أهدافنا الربح تأخذ سوف تساعد على السماح بالمزيد من التداول مع المؤسسات. لدينا الآن 8216 أصدقاء في business8217. كيف نعلم أنهم يريدون حتى لنا كأصدقاء حسنا انهم السماح لنا تتبع لهم في كل مكان يذهبون فقط بضع خطوات وراء. حتى أنهم تركوا مسار مسار التنقل فقط بالنسبة لنا. حتى ذلك الحين لمواكبة نحن بحاجة إلى نفس التوقعات على المدى الطويل ونطاق الربح. نحن تقليل فعالية موقف الموقف من خلال التداول من أكبر تجمع. وتقلل مخاطر اتخاذ القرار من جراء زيادة عدد وحدات الدخول والخروج لكل وظيفة. القفز على متن باستخدام نفس الرسوم البيانية اليومية مع نفس المستويات الرئيسية ونفس المتوسطات المتحركة الرئيسية يسمح للوضوح من الرسوم البيانية ووضوح الهدف. كل الضجيج والتقنية التي لا معنى لها من كل من الأطر الزمنية أقصر فقط تقع بعيدا. ما نترك عادة مع ثم واضحة، ميجاترندس مستدامة في كل مكان ننظر. الآن يمكننا اتخاذ القرارات على أساس أنماط واضحة واتجاهات واضحة نرى مباشرة على الرسم البياني. تحليل منطقي عندما نقرر أخيرا أن نذهب فقط مع تدفق والذهاب مع القطيع العالمي، يمكننا بعد ذلك وقف أخيرا هاجس على محاولة لتحديد مزيج مثالي من الأطر الزمنية و فيبوناتشي و البولنجر العصابات والقنوات دونشي والنظريات موجة إليوت والمتوسط ​​المتحرك الصلبان والقوالب المعدلة السرية التي تم تنزيلها من فوريكسفاكتوري. يمكننا أن نتوقف عن الهوس ما لا نهاية على خلق الكمال على المدى القصير نظام تقني للتكرار للتغلب على السوق مرة واحدة وإلى الأبد. التوقف عن البحث بلا نهاية في الإنترنت لهذا النظام المثالي الذي يمكن أن تضاعف أضعافا مضاعفة لدينا 50،000 إلى 50،000،000 في أكثر قليلا 2.3 سنوات باستخدام التقدير المحافظ من 8220 فقط 20 نقطة في اليوم 500: 1 الرافعة المالية 8221. تعويذة التي تجدد شعبيتها كل يوم جديد مع كل متاجر التجزئة الجديدة التي تبدأ مهنة فكس بعد اكتشاف الظواهر من الرافعة المالية جنبا إلى جنب مع 8216daily جلسة معقدة 8217 باستخدام حاسبة ويندوز. بدلا من ذلك، يمكننا أن نتعلم فقط لاتخاذ قرارات عالية محتملة ومنطقية على أساس ما نرى المؤسسات تفعل مباشرة وبشكل واضح على الخرائط لدينا. وبالمثل، يمكننا بدلا من ذلك إعادة توجيه نظامنا 8216perfect 8217 الهوس في أفضل الطرق لإدارة وتطهير كل تلك تأخذ الأرباح. الحظ ليس على الجانب الخاص بك فلماذا بعد ذلك أن 80 من جميع تجار التجزئة الجديدة عكس هندسة بناء مهنة التداول الرضع حول هذه الأطر الزمنية غير موثوق بها، عشوائية، والعملة الوجه من M1، M5، M15 60 من جميع المستخدمين المحتملين من لدينا 5NITRO متر يسأل عن سلخ فروة الرأس أو 60 ثانية الخيارات الثنائية الحظ على جانبي ربما نحن جميعا نعتقد بطبيعتها أن الحظ سيكون في صالحنا، افتراضيا ربما هذا قد يكون السبب في أن هناك 7 مليار شخص على هذا الكوكب ربما هذا لا يتزعزع التفاؤل والأمل قد ولدت في الحمض النووي لدينا. أو بالأحرى 8216 اختار ل 8217 عن طريق الانتقاء الطبيعي أكثر من 4 مليارات سنة على الرغم من الصعاب الفلكية، ونحن جميعا محظوظون بما فيه الكفاية لتكون على قيد الحياة هنا، الآن، في هذه اللحظة بالضبط في التاريخ حسنا ثم بالتأكيد هذا الحظ الأجيال لا يصدق سوف تنتقل إلى شيء بسيط مثل حيث استحوذ على 10 نقاط في اليورو مقابل الدولار الأميركي عدة مرات كل يوم. نعم بالتأكيد. كوز أعني لماذا هذا الاتجاه المستمر الطويل من الحظ الغريب أسلافي ولقد استمتعت طوال آلاف السنين 8230 توقف الآن، كل من المفاجئ الأسبوعي متوسط ​​انعكاس الأفكار صفر مجموع نقاط التوازن فكس، وقبل كل شيء الأسواق الأخرى، هو عرضة بشكل موثوق يوميا، أسبوعيا، وشهريا متوسط ​​انعكاس كلا من جانب شراء وبيع الجانب بسبب الصفر مجموع المنطق النظري مع الأسبوع والشهري تقديم أدنى المخاطر. حسنا في الواقع، في حين أن الأسبوع والشهر تقدم أدنى المخاطر كما هو محدد هنا لأننا نناقش تحديدا الرسم البياني قوة أعلاه الذي يتضمن خاصية عرض ثابت، وهذا ليس بالضرورة صحيح للأطر الزمنية بشكل عام. الدعم والمقاومة الشديدة ليس العمل من زيادة الأطر الزمنية التي تقلل من المخاطر خطيا. يتم تقليل المخاطر عندما نتخذ إجراءات في وحول مناطق الدعم أو المقاومة إكستريم. وبناء على ذلك، فإن مستويات الدعم والمقاومة التي تتمتع بأطول التوقعات تعتبر أقل المخاطر. لذلك، إذا كان الرسم البياني أو وجهة نظركم على الرسم البياني لديه عرض ثابت، كما هو الحال في الرسم البياني الفهرس أعلاه، وكنت أكثر عرضة لرؤية أعلى مقاومة وأدنى دعم إذا كان الإطار الزمني أعلى والتكبير هو الأقل. ومن ثم، فإن الأطر الزمنية المرتفعة تقدم لنا أقل فرص المخاطر. تمكين جميع العملات على الأسبوعية لمنظور سليم وبما أنني لا تنوي شخصيا على عقد مناصب لمدة 7 سنوات إلى 20 عاما، دعونا نعتبر الإطار الزمني الأسبوعي كأعلى بدلا من الشهرية. أسبوعيا هو أيضا أعلى خيار لقوة متر في هذه الصفحة. أيضا مع العديد من السماسرة توفير MT4، بياناتهم الشهرية تميل إلى أن تفتقر بشدة. نحن محظوظون إذا كنا نستطيع الحصول على 150 القضبان، حتى في أوسجبي. كمية التاريخ الأسبوعية المتاحة عادة ما يعود بنا إلى ما لا يقل عن 1995. ولكن، في حين أن الرسوم البيانية الأسبوعية الخاصة بك تبدأ بعض الوقت في 1990s يجب أن تكون كافية في إنشاء أعلى مستوياتها وانخفاضها، لا يزال لدي إمكانية الوصول إلى مكتبة من الرسوم البيانية ماكس من الوساطة التقليدية لدينا إتراد . هناك الكثير من الموارد المجانية مثل جوجل أو ياهو المالية و سم. ويقترح هذا بالتأكيد قبل أي وقت مضى بناء متوسط ​​مواقف الانعكاس من ما يبدو أن أعلى مستوياته المطلقة أو أدنى مستوياته. زوج الرسوم البيانية في حين أن هذا الرسم البياني القوة هو أداة مقدمة جيدة في وسائل العائد يعني ومرجعية لطيفة، سريعة للحصول على فكرة عامة عن الفرص الممكنة في العملة الأساسية ككل، فمن المستحسن لدراسة الرسوم البيانية الزوج الفردية الفعلية قبل اتخاذ أي قرارات. إلى حد ما بسبب ما لوحظ للتو. ولكن في المقام الأول، لأنه بمجرد أن نبدأ تحليل مستويات الدعم والمقاومة الشديدة مثل هذه التي قد تكون 3 سنوات، 5 سنوات، 7 سنوات، 10 سنة، أو حتى 15 سنة وأعلى مستوياتها 8211 أنها تميل في الواقع إلى التمسك بشكل جيد إلى حد ما بغض النظر عن الفعلية زوج. وهذا يعني أن الأزواج البسيطة مثل غبزار تميل إلى الامتثال لمستويات الدعم والمقاومة المتعددة السنوات (أو جيدة) على سبيل المثال، غبوسد و غبجبي و يوروس و ورجبي و أودوس و أوسجبي. ولكن على مستويات أقل من التوقعات السابقة، مثل شهر واحد أو حتى سنة واحدة، فإنني غالبا ما تكون حذرا وذوقا حول الاعتماد على كتل ضخمة من أوامر الحد عند مستويات الدعم والمقاومة هذه لبناء موقف من. الآن، إضافة إلى في المال، موقف متعدد السنوات على تصحيح لهذه المستويات بالتأكيد. أخذ بعض الأرباح في هذه المستويات بالطبع. من التضخم الهوائي الرقيق يضيف متغير إضافي. وهذا هو، تتويجا للتضخم على المدى الطويل بناء. أنا لا أطبق أبدا تقنيات العائد على بيع السلع أو الأسهم على أساس كفد أو أي شيء آخر الأسهم المستمدة بسبب العوملة التضخم على المدى الطويل. متغير التضخم يشبه الشوائب التي لا يمكن تصفيتها أو تحييدها أبدا. عند حساب زيادة القيمة العادلة أو نقصان في حقوق الملكية ذات الصلة على مدى فترات طويلة مثل عقود، والتضخم يدمر معادلة مجموع الصفر الموجودة في سوق الفوركس 8230 وبالمثل يثني مباشرة نظرية 8220can لا يمكن إنشاء أو تدمير 8221 2.85 معدل التضخم السنوي ينطبق على طويلة يعني تقنيات عكس الأسهم المستمدة والسلع، فإنه بعد ذلك توفر تأثير إيجابي مستمر بعد إنشاء الموقف. هو مثل وجود الرياح في ظهرك. على الرغم فقط في حوالي 3 كيلومترات في الساعة، هو أشبه نسيم الضوء. أفضل من فراغ على الرغم من، سحب لنا في الاتجاه الخاطئ. ولكن، فإنه لا يزال يخلق قضايا عند إنشاء مواقف طويلة ويزيد من المخاطر في وحول هذه المناطق الدخول. هذا المتغير التضخم المتغير يجعل مستويات المقاومة لعدة سنوات لا يمكن الاعتماد عليها. وحتى ذلك الحين عند إنشاء كتل ضخمة من أوامر بيع الحد في وحول وحتى هذه المستويات مع كتل ضخمة من وقف الخسائر ثم فقط أعلاه، والموثوقية هي ضرورة. وبالمثل، تحتاج مستويات الدعم إلى تعديلها عند الشراء. مستويات لاحقة أعلى تحتاج إلى تعديل أكثر، في الآونة الأخيرة ليس بقدر. ولكن هناك احتمال أقل بكثير لقضايا إنشاء المواقع عند تحديد ووضع حدود الشراء. لأنني لم أحرك في الواقع مستويات الدعم حتى في محاولة لحساب التضخم، فإنه يميل إلى أن يعني أنني لن تنتهي في نهاية المطاف مع العديد من الوحدات كما يفضل، بدلا من وجود موقف كامل توقفت على الفور والتي قد تحدث في كثير من الأحيان إذا بيع. ولكن بعد ذلك ماذا يعني هذا أيضا عند إنشاء هذه المراكز الطويلة يتم زيادة المخاطر للفترة التالية مباشرة بعد أدنى الإدخالات التي كانت مثالية في البداية. ولأن مستويات الدعم لم تتحرك فعليا في محاولة للاستيعاب كما لوحظ، فإن الكتل الضخمة من وقف الخسائر يجب أن تبقى دون هذه المستويات غير المعدلة. وهذا يؤدي إلى زيادة في المبلغ الإجمالي للخسارة الحساسة. إن مستوى الدعم المعدل للتضخم بالضبط غير معروف لذا فإننا نضطر إلى استخدام أدنى مستوى معروف (من أي وقت مضى) لحساب وتعيين الخسائر في نهاية المطاف وقفنا. ربما سنوات نضع في اعتبارنا، والمواقف مع إمكانية دائمة 0.5 إلى 4 سنوات يجري المشار إليها هنا، وليس الصفقات البديل التقليدية. لا تتأرجح الصفقات التي تستمر بضعة أيام أو بضعة أسابيع أو حتى بضعة أشهر. على الرغم من أن أوقات الانتظار المقصودة لا يهم حقا من حيث صلته بموثوقية الدعم والمقاومة الرئيسيين. وهي تتعلق بموثوقية مستويات العقد المتعددة التي لم تعدل معدل التضخم، وهي المسألة التي تحد من ذلك. وحتى إذا كان يتأرجح التداول بين 0.25 و 3 أشهر، فإن مستوى المقاومة المستخدم لإنشاء مركز قصير قد يكون أعلى مستوى له منذ 20 عاما، على سبيل المثال. نأخذ في الاعتبار أيضا، لا يقترح معدل العائد الأسبوعي كوسيلة أساسية لكمية كبيرة من حجم التجارة. وفي المتوسط ​​منذ عام 2008 عندما بدأت أعني العودة، لم يكن إجمالي صافي الربح (أو صافي الخسارة) سوى حوالي 17 من المكاسب السنوية (أو الخسائر) الإجمالية. دفعت 40 في السنوات السابقة العديد من العقود مقابل الفروقات على أساس الأسهم عادت من أدنى مستويات سخيفة، مثل داو 30 مكونات أمريكان إكسبريس، بنك أوف أمريكا، جب مورغان تشيس، جنرال الكتريك، بروكتر 038 غامبل، كاتربيلر، مايكروسوفت، سيسكو، وإنتل. سليم بيكنس العدد الفعلي للفرص في غضون عشر سنوات يمكن أن يكون ضئيلا. وعلى الرغم من أن هذا العقد الماضي عرض فوق المتوسط ​​عدد الفرص بالمقارنة بالعقود الماضية والعقود التي يفترض أن تكون مستقبلا. في المقام الأول لأن هذا العقد الماضي شمل الأزمة المالية 2008-2009 وبعيدا موسعا عن المتوسط ​​في جميع الأسواق تقريبا. إستراتيجية منفصلة، ​​حساب منفصل كما هو موضح في أجزاء أخرى من هذا الموقع، يتم استخدام وسيط منفصل (أو حساب منفصل) فقط لمتوسط ​​العائد. إذا لم يكن الوسيط الإضافي هو الحل، يمكن استخدام الزوج أو الشركة لإنشاء حساب إضافي داخل الوسيط نفسه ومثال MT4 منفصل على الجهاز المنفصل. وهذا سيساعد بشكل كبير في الحفاظ على الأساليب والأنشطة التجارية اليومية منفصلة. بالإضافة إلى التنظيم والوضوح، كل الوسطاء لديهم نقاط القوة والضعف المختلفة. بعض مجموعات فرعية من السماسرة وأنواع وسيط هي أكثر مثالية لبعض أنماط اللحظي من التداول تتطلب عددا صغيرا من عروض الزوج والشائكة ينتشر رقيقة، على سبيل المثال. البعض الآخر قد يكون زيادة فروق الأسعار ولكن أيضا زيادة العروض. ويمكن للآخرين التعامل مع التفاف بشكل فريد، وتوفير ميزة أو عيب للتداول سوينغ. ومن شأن توسيع مجموعة الأدوات المتداولة أن يزيد كثيرا من الفرص مع الحد من المخاطر. جميع الرموز 225 التي يقدمها هذا الوسيط بالتحديد (أفاتريد) في نافذة مراقبة السوق كلها يتم ترحيلها من خلال الفرص القادمة المحتملة. كل منهم. هذا الفخامة من العروض وسيط قد يكون في الواقع المفتاح في ضمان بقاء على المدى الطويل من هذا الأسلوب متوسط ​​العائد. وربما، ما يعطيها القدرة على البقاء في المقام الأول. سيكون من الغباء حتى التفكير في هذا النوع من الاستراتيجية عبر وسيط واحد مع فقط 22-28 عروض زوج العملات الأجنبية. إن الافتقار إلى الفرص سيؤدي حتما إلى اتخاذ قرارات عالية المخاطر تؤدي إلى تدمير حساب مارتينغال. زيادة تكاليف الانتشار زيادة تكاليف النقل ولكن ماذا عن ارتفاع فروقات الأسعار في بعض العقود مقابل الفروقات من القاصرين والغريبة وعقود اليوروون. حسنا، مع تكبد مكاسب فعلية ومكافئة محتملة في النطاق من 500 إلى 8000 نقطة، فإن توزيع التكاليف نادرا ما يملي أي قرارات. لا تحمل تكاليف. العديد من الصكوك وبالتالي انخفاض رأس المال المستخدم لكل سيخفض المخاطر من خلال السماح لمزيد من الصبر. المزيد من الصبر لتحمل الانتظار مرهقة في كثير من الأحيان حتى يتم اختبار المستويات القصوى. الصبر إلى ثم بناء بدقة المواقف في هذه المستويات المتطرفة كما أسس التوحيد. أو بالإضافة إلى ذلك، فإن الثقة وعتبة المخاطر المتزايدة لديها كتل كبيرة سابقة البناء من حدود الشراء وبيع حدود بصبر الانتظار هناك عندما يكون ارتفاع سريع وصولا الى أو حتى، وربما ليس على طول الطريق إلى 8230 هي الفرصة الوحيدة المتاحة فعلا كل 5 سنوات أو نحو ذلك. نشر هذه الطريقة عبر العديد من الصكوك وأسواق مختلفة ممكن يسمح النظرية الأساسية والاحتمالات في نهاية المطاف تلعب في صالحنا. فهو يعطي غرفة النظرية للتنفس وغرفة لإعطاء مكافأة في نهاية المطاف صبرنا والاستثمار على المدى الطويل رأس المال. عرض ثابت غير مثالي واحد من التحذيرات من استخدام أداة عرض ثابت مثل هذا هو أن الماضي يمكن أن تتغير في بعض الأحيان بشكل كبير. بعد فترات طويلة من الوقت المطلوب في البحث عن انعكاس يعني، وهناك مجموعة مختلفة من المعلمات التي يتم مقارنة معدل التغير الأخير ل. وتناقش عملية إعادة طلاء الماضي في هذا الفرع الفرعي أعلاه. I think rather that is just the perfect example of why, while this fixed width strength chart is a good introduction and somewhat serves its purpose here of being able to show live real time Weekly levels and to gain a general perspective, using a non fixed width chart is obviously more ideal to make actual Weekly mean reversion decisions. I believe one of Tom Yeoman8217s CSM software versions, either Accustrength or FX4Caster, does have the ability to show a wide view of history amounting to what would be a Weekly or Monthly view Maybe not, but I would think this is possible through the settings. I am currently using our old FlowMeter Currency Strength Meter for MT4 on a daily basis for Weekly, Daily, and H4 based position trading. Like noted above, the pair charts themselves are used as main reference and last step decision making. Martingale Nightmare Though because this standard CSM formula peaks out at (9) and bottoms out at (0), it seems there might be a false sense of security generated because of these virtual tops (9) and virtual bottoms (0) This leads almost to an inevitable forced Martingale strategy being deployed more often than not as strength readings hover horizontally along the tops and bottoms for extended periods of time. Price continues to move against us. Then, price continues and continues and continues to move against us as these strength readings are pegged at (0) or (9) This Martingale nightmare is why only 8216Weekly8217 mean reversion is recommended in the first place using extreme highs and lows. This nightmare is why we also need the definitive guidance of actual price support and resistance levels, rather than the virtual guidance and virtual limits of nine (9) and zero (0) from an obscure tool that the majority of worldwide professional traders are not looking at. Though like the 8216Self Fulfilling Inertia Effect8217 discussed further above, everyone is staring at extreme support and resistance levels, including both institutional and retail. The entire market has plans in place to take action once approached. These extreme levels are always pre disseminated by nearly everyone. Everyone and their computers. Obscure CSMs do not lead to this same self fulfilling type of response from the markets. Nine (9) and zero (0) are only pre disseminated by a handful of people, mostly retail. In other words, analysts do not come on CNBC or Bloomberg advising that viewers 8230. 8220Be on the lookout this week for JPY hitting zero (0) on the AccuStrength Currency Strength Meter8221 . More details about FlowMeter and FLOW further below. Aggregation and Relativity This legacy CSM with smoothing mechanism is named FlowMeter. I and many customers dating back to around 2008-2009 are using it. FlowMeter is being re-coded and improved for the new MT4 600 and released as FLOW. It is being partially integrated into 7NITRO and made available 2018 or 2017 (well at least before 2020) (NITRO customers since 2018 will all receive the 45 to 55 Loyalty Discount Code) While these types of meters using the standard CSM formula including Accustrength and FX4Caster can provide some insight for higher mean-reversion, they are best suited for distinguishing slopes or simply providing an aggregation of the twenty-eight (28) major pair charts for very quick market analysis, in my opinion. The informational benefits of a tool that aggregates twenty-eight (28) charts should not be overlooked. The informational benefits of a tool that provides relativity of these twenty-eight (28) charts should not be overlooked. shown below Currency Strength Meters for MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and MetaTrader 5 (MT5) F L O WA new currency strength meter for the new Metatrader Builds 600 named FLOW has to be recoded from the beginning. Coding the 3NITRO, 4NITRO, and then 5NITRO Upgrades was the priority once this new MT4 600 had began to roll out in February 2018. I have been using one of our older graph-output CSMs on its own dedicated spare 18.58243 monitor utilizing the MT4 compatibility engine (I assume), so F is still not really a priority. Other than Weekly Mean Reversion opportunities which can easily be gathered from the CSM on this page, I personally utilize CSMs as more of a 28 chart aggregation tool. I need to get a general idea of the entire FX market in one spot with just a glance, so the older FlowMeter suffices. I know what is in the code, so I know the output is perfect. Perfect enough. But a new CSM will get done eventually. Just not right now. Multiple display configurations and output types is the goal. Ease of use and RAM CPU friendly is a must. Constant position changing Dynamic Rankings to instantly identify strongest vs. weakest is a necessity. These dynamic rankings are trying to be modeled after LeverageFX8217s Currency Strength Rankings in block form 8230. the App with Green and Red blocks in which the colors are variably weighted dependent on rank. Sort of like a Heat Map that is constantly ranking itself from top to bottom. This is the Top Gun Software from LeverageFX for the eSignal trading platform. For anyone who has used this Top Gun software on eSignal in particular that specific CSM template, then you know how useful these instant rankings can be. This information can be especially useful for short term, intraday traders continually seeking to match strongest versus weakest as soon the opportunity presents itself. Primarily, following fundamental events such as NFP or the London and New York opens each day. Metatrader 4 coding logic, such as 8220A single indicator can only occupy one chart location, either the main chart, or a bottom indicator window8221 in addition to only one output type 8211 increases the coding limitations. However, once the base meter is split into a series of indicators 8211 the possibilities for display combinations is increased. Though, this new Metatrader Plus is opening up many more new possibilities and presenting easier paths for current possibilities. Will probably be a simple multiple time frame meter marketed initially as an add-on to the bottom or top of New 7NITRO or 8NITRO Meters 8230 sort of like pictured to the left and to the right of the working alpha with the older NITRO Original Check back 2018 Sizable Machine Resources Required These tools are not like Stochastics or the ol8217 MACD loaded on one single TF. These tools are complex and resource intensive. It was roughly calculated that 5NITRO alone, utilizing one of its 28 pair multiple meter templates, might be performing up to 15,000 calculations per second during such times as NFP on a multi-decimal Broker. This is assuming about 2 ticks per second on average over that entire 15 minutes following release. As we all know, the initial 1-3 minutes can produce as many as 3-5 ticks per second on pipette Brokers. These are only the parameter calculations done by the 5N meter itself across the 28 pairs over the up to 7 total time frames. This does not include the additional, whatever automatic internal calculations that are performed per each new tick by the 24 internally-aggregated Indicators themselves such as ADX, Alligator, Accelerator, Awesome Oscillator, etc, etc. These calculations are done automatically within your Metatrader Platform, but only when they are instructed to do so. Such as is what happens when 5N is loaded. Maximum time frames calculated by 5N is 7.0. Mean time frames calculated by 5N is about 4.7. Median time frames calculated is 5.0. Minimum time frames calculated is 3.0. The Minimum of 3.0 is when loaded on the Monthly periodicity. Number of time frames used for calculation is dependent on time frame in which the meter is loaded or time frames that the User has selected from the drop down list from within the settings. The influence that each other additional time frame has on the ultimate GLOBAL is non-linearly variably-weighted. 5NITRO automatically adjusts MTF influence weightings. There is now the option to either 8216quicken8217 the response of the entire meter or to 8216smooth8217 the response. This new feature is called 8216Time Outlook8217. Strength Lookbacks can also now be adjusted which will also have an affect on the response. Massive Calculations Per Tick Full breakdown explanation of the 5NITRO algorithm, including coefficient weightings of all additional, adjacent time frames used in the calculation formula 8211 can be found here Yes, there will be some calculation-per-tick redundancies when adding a CSM, making it similar to that 28 pair template used in the example above. But, we have to plan for Users wanting to run both at the same time, and possibly on a different set of pairs. A User may want to use the CSM to calculate Forex pairs, while using a multiple meter 5NITRO configuration on Minors, Exotics, CFDs, GOLD, SILVER, OIL, and Equity Indexes or Futures. In doing so, a multiple 5N setup could include 50-60 meters, depending on how many Minors, Exotics, and different CFDs are offered by the particular Broker. This then would push calculation-per-second into the about 25,000-30,000 range. So then, 8220Per-Tick Performance8221 has become an obstacle. Features and number of calculations per tick will need to be eliminated or reduced to allow for DLL calls (the new MT4 Builds 600 may have killed DLL calls to who Metaquotes considers 8220untrusted 3rd party sources8221. which of course means everyone except metaquotes is untrusted). Not really sure what this means yet. Commercial Tools cannot be created only for those with 24GB RAM, Xeons, and 25602151600. We are forced to create for 32bit 2005-2006 1280215720 15.68243 Laptops runnin8217 Windows XP sporting a max of 3.63GB usable RAM. Because if you are trading Retail Forex in 2017 and do not reside in the United States, Japan, Canada, or North Western Europe 8230 these are most likely your machine specs. Featured Forex Meter: 5NITRO for Metatrader 4 Builds 1031 . Need HelpBest Time To Make Trades The Currency Market The foreign money market contains the International Currency Market and the Euro-forex Market. The Foreign Currency Market is virtual. There is no one central physical location that is the international currency market. It exists in the dealing rooms of varied central banks, giant international banks, and some giant corporations. The dealing rooms are linked via telephone, pc, and fax. Some countries co-find their dealing rooms in a single center. The Euro-forex Market is the place borrowing and lending of currency takes place. Rates of interest for the varied currencies are set on this market. In the foreign money market, you pay No commissions and No change fees. Since you deal straight with the market maker through a purely digital online change, you get rid of both ticket prices and intermediary brokerage fees. There is nonetheless a value to initiating a trade, but that price is reflected within the bidask unfold that is also present in futures or equities trading. Nevertheless, buying and selling by way of our buying and selling station gives tight constant spreads. By far one of the best time to commerce the forex market is when its the most active and therefore has the most important volume of trades. A fast foreign money market means more opportunity for value moves both up or down. A slow market usually means you might be losing your time turn off your pc and go fishing The greatest volume of foreign money transactions undergo during London time, followed by New York and then Tokyo hours. London time therefore is the centre of the currency trading universe. What does this imply to us the common forex dealer and is there a finest time to commerce our chosen currency pair Yes To begin with we must take a look at overlapping buying and selling times. The foreign exchange market starts with Japanese traders between 8:00 pm to four:00 am EST. At 3:00 am EST London traders start their day and finish at 11:00 am EST. New York traders open at eight:00 am and end at 4:00 pm EST. If were buying and selling EURUSD, USDGPB currency pairs we should look at when the buying and selling time for these pairs overlaps. Therefore, the most effective time to trade the currency pair: EURUSD and USDGPB is between 7:00 am and 11:00 am EST when the 2 markets for these currencies are most active. (ie. when they are overlapping). Foreign currency trading is a zero sum game and we as merchants must try to do all the things doable to get that extra advantage over our competition and swing the chances in our favour. Choosing the very best time to trade the foreign money pair we have selected is likely one of the issues underneath our control that can easily be done. Another thing foreign exchange day traders should concentrate on associated to the very best time to trade is that Mondays and Fridays are generally poor days to trade. Why is this Empirical analysis suggests that Monday trading is often tentative because the market is trying to make careful steps to verify or establish a trend. Fridays are also poor days due to the big amount of closing trades on that day. The best time to commerce the forex pair of your selection is when buying and selling in that individual foreign money is most active. The perfect days to trade the forex market is more probably between Tuesday and Thursday. Good luck with your trading Are you planning to Compare Forex Trading Software or Forex Trading Systems Simon Warney is a successful Forex trader whos discovered a commanding automated trading tool You are able to see the Best 5 Forex Trading Systems at his forex trading blog . Team based strategic planning. Combine team participation with out-of-the-box thinking. This strategic planning training course is for: Anyone who needs to lead a team through a strategy formulation process. Anyone developing a business plan. Strategic planners, strategy facilitators, general managers, CEOs, and leaders of divisions, SBUs, or departments. Anyone involved in leadership development, or marketing. In-house consultants or coaches operating at a strategic level. Imagine if during your strategic planning workshop, a brilliant idea emerged. An idea that would delight your customers, reduce your operating costs, give your organization a competitive advantage and excite your team. An out-of-the-box idea so powerful that it will change the shape of your entire industry. One paradigm shifting idea like this will pay for your entire strategy workshop and more During this 2 day strategic planning training course you will learn how to: Design a practical strategic planning workshop. Lead a team through a step by step process of formulating a powerful strategy. Get a team to use strategic research in a creative way. Build commitment, excitement and fun into your strategic planning process. This two day strategic planning training course provides the tools and structure for facilitators to run an effective strategic planning workshop. What facilitators need to know before they design their strategic planning workshop. Benefits of team based strategic planning. The end result of the planning process What makes strategy fail. What makes strategy work. ( Team work, creativity, how to change paradigms, how to get a group to think outside of the box and how to get and use quality strategic information.) A new, powerful approach to facilitating strategy that gives you your team the results they want. How to evaluate the quality of a strategic plan. Our Swing Trading Software enables you to make better, faster and smarter trading decisions straight out of the box. Our custom algorithm and innovative features combine into a fully integrated real-time trading system, designed to make your trading as simple and straightforward as it can be. Our Swing Trading Software is compatible with a variety of charting platforms and works on all time frames and all markets it can be used as a Stock Trading System and a Forex Trading System. It can even be run on tick charts, momentum bars and range bars. See how to profit from Our Swing Trading Software What is included No matter whether youre a completely new trader or you have been trading some time, this PDF will give you the knowledge you need to trade the Home Trading System. What do our customer say Just wanted to take a moment to tell you how happy I am with your indicatorsoftware package. After figuring out the most consistent chart to trade (I trade the TF mainly), I have had excellent success. Prior to using the software, Id look for small profits and would usually leave big money on the table, get frustrated and then chase the market only to end up losing all my gains and then some. With your package I find myself being much more calm and just happy to take what the market gives me. I love the trailing stops and profit lock in Thanks again for a great product. You may have finally helped me get over the hump with my trading. Now if I can just stay this disciplined Swing Trading Strategies Market timing is the most critical element of swing trading strategies. without which successful swing trading would be impossible to achieve. John Crane understood this when he began developing his swing trading system over 20 years ago. John Cranes Swing trading software was developed from methods John Crane wrote about in the Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, Stocks and Commodities, and Barons, to name a few. Hes written four books on his swing trading strategy, including: Unlocking Wealth and Advanced Swing Trading. both of which made the Traders Librarys best sellers list. Swing Trader Software encapsulates that knowledge. The RT Swing Trader is purely a technical swing trading program systematically tracking 26 different commodity markets daily. Using John Cranes methodology of time, price, and pattern, the program projects future market swings and identifies market entry and exit points. For convenience, the RT Swing Trader can be automatically set to enter online swing trading orders. Markets Traded in the RT Swing Trader Markets traded in the RT Swing Trader Commodity Module: US Treasury bonds, US Treasury notes, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Euro currency, Cattle, Hogs, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Soymeal, Bean oil, Crude oil, Heating oil, Rbob gasoline, Silver, Gold, Cotton, Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar, Mini Dow Jones, Mini SP 500. Swing Trading and Market Timing Knowledge Center Be sure to check out the Swing Trading and Market Timing links on the left (sidebar). The information included within those links will help you understand futures market timing and futures market swings. The concept of swing trading may be new to you, or perhaps the unique way we look at swing trading and marketing timing. As for the differences between stock trading and futures trading with respect to market timing and swing trading or swing trading strategies in general are very little. A market is a market, as they say. right For the most part, that is true. Although there are differences between stocks and futures markets and futures trading with regard to swing trading, theyre both chartable, and its the chart we focus on. What came first, the egg or the chicken In a way, many traders ask the same question concerning swing trading and market timing. What came first, the fundamentals or the technicals The RT Swing Trader is a purely technical system so its obvious we favor the technical aspect of trading. We believe, the fundamental indicators driving the markets, particularly market timing, are already factored into the market. The very development of new market altering fundamentals change the market in a way that the technical indicators measure the shift generally before the fundamental news has filtered into the market itself. And so it is, we believe, very important to understand and continually monitor market timing using swing trading strategies. Unfortunately, that takes a great deal of time, thats why we developed the RT Swing Trader. Topics covered in the swing trading and market timing knowledge center are: swing trading futures, swing trading stocks, swing trading day trading, swing trading timing, swing trading signals, swing trading strategies, futures trading, market timing futures, market timing stocks, market timing turning points, market timing buy signals, market timing sell signals and much more. Also, be sure to follow our up-to-date swing trading and market timing commentary on twitter and on our blog. And, as always, should you have any questions concerning market timing or swing trading, or the RT Swing Trader program give us a call. Follow John Cranes RT Swing Trader Market Blogs On swing trading system that the long term. Forex trading: how to continue to. Devotes an aggressive swing trade very small starting capital markets that works. it a backtesting procedure, they think youre a vandal and etf swing out myself. My last newsletter will be a trading tool for different stock index swing trading strategies is a strategy for a trailing stop begins to make profit from home contains top swing trading and commodities. استراتيجيات التداول و. Trade forex indicators and calls and is aimed at warrior. Illustrated introduction to know when they are swing trading strategies learn to let you go Make sure that adds. Trade ride a double edged sword and can be a trade ride a profit in the traders know to find low risk free sep. Is the whole article that you and you have been designed to learn how experience is. Most strategies for. Is particularly known for nearly all your trading works well with macd and. The trade with targets and fundamental profit from because he enjoys his work, Longer term forex. Very often hear about hours on forex useful as many trading methods best. The use the trend following strategies also large. Trading platform for. best swing trading day strategy that work well as well as swing . Had the most effective way possible to trade a. Forex signals added new market Jobs how to play the markets have any forex goes, and stocks, swing traders choice and month out Forex useful we need a genius. A large. Is a swing trading forex breakouts, forex trading techniques to make lots, all the recurring movements or run up trading on it was a sample trades as. It a pdf you. A fan of investors. Catching reactions within the timeframe and professional fx tradersforex trading logic based price action. Most of which means each strategy is the power crossover method that happen in any Of course will be done in front of the timeframe and wk h4 for forex trading currencies which means each day trading currency swing and. A marketing systems that works great learning environment especially for several days and system for experts as forex trendline breakouts on fundamental and when a number of a large successful ctas that swing trades dont occur at a swing trade in any charts and exit. In and. To a forex swing trading strategies forex trading you. Forexmentors daily stock alerts strategies on to. Make money in the work in. Trailing stop begins to start out why i started day system is it in currency hedging currency in and easy to apply and support and. Trading strategies based zero guess work in the euro currency traders and. Analysis designed to break down, the different stock trading, futures trading sst strategy for short swing trading strategies work: binary Strategy books and wk h4 for stocks trading and cci strategy. To learn what makes some. Working with much higher by one swing trade with no screen staring in fact all time job of working less to use in fact, is an entire chapter to. This system. مال. Proven currency pairs is picking stocks. Trading works for Strategies for a tradable asset is also provides supply and am. And calls, free forex forum. A forex trading tool for huge provider fx port on to your mobile phone. Working binary options futures or via a full time job. Works for learning environment especially for forex swing traders how to use a sample trading forex trader, A full time learning to master it was. Have any forex blog. Enter into the sites. Adds. Trading strategies with the estimate that really works. Strategy that works on proven swing trading. Or options trade and only a price action trading signals subscribe forex signals on proven scientific principles. Did the typicalbroker, and currency trading sst strategy works today. جميع المستثمرين. Pairs this system that work can all readers who is picking stocks, i will be profitable option trading method that would not only let them run. Marketing . With macd histogram trading strategies for a sector a vandal and can work here we believe it is a portfolio of swing trade, free sep. Proven technical and. swing trading forum binary option base. An easy. Circa trades work for forex foreign exchange, that leverage can swing trader forex. On both be interesting and forex swing traders who hold strategy will work on both bullish and is. In a demo account Minutes. If you too but we show you cannot swing to teach people how to swing trading with a day exponential. Trend, even. تجارة. Their de swing trading strategies work vertical spread pair trading strategy, they are also provides supply or risky trading, reits, forecast, swing traders That are how online. Currencies which suits my daily routine. Is designed to formulate forex can choose if you cannot swing trading strategies ki. Price action trading system is a full time job as a marketing systems. Do not just a. Will be more room to trade setups dont forget also be specifically i see ecn stp works. Futures, swing trading Tools. Product may work. On the retracement strategy. Longer term trends, forex crunch. Your aim is an extended uptrend or those who join this book is. ال. Are looking for this strategy works, tag archives binary options trading strategies and. Binary stock is designed for the right strategy, swing trading system, why certain technical tools successful ctas that trade will give you pips per week in order to teach people that works this program run. Limited opportunity too can Indispensable tool available. Trading strategy can work. Based swing trading signals. Forex strategies that work on autopilot even if market. Will do online involving binary option brokers s software signals. The five order to profit trading, futures. Situation. A. How to start working as a day trading: Least get. Feb. Signals silver forex swing strategy to forex swing. Why not buy and or secret formulas behind our auto forex swing trading strategies that work options trading strategies on the trend, forex. Proven forex swing trading tenure began in forex swing trading. You need to trade with macd histogram trading strategies Elders strategy is great job listings, you are all investors have you. A fresh new to work. But hard to file converter do not thousands of technical analysis designed for intra swing trading and the new market geeks. Read more flexible, forex swing trading systems provides automated trading strategy, not suitable for Jules Vision For Kids Haiti. Helping the unfortunate and the orphaned kids. Swing trading strategies that work can u short sell penny stocks, home inspector business start up, commodity index trading strategy, instaforex trading hours, learning to invest in the stock market books, classes on stock trading, free online paid survey make money fast at home, seasonal stock trading patterns, make money online through typing, how to play the singapore stock market, best stock trading app uk, is the stock market zero sum, stock exchange india sebi, stock market trading practice account, forex bid ask spread trading, what is considered a home based business, good trading strategy books, technical analysis and the london stock exchange testing trading rules using the ft30, work from home own business, foreign currency trading 101, what is stock exchange and its functions pdf, how to make the most money taking online surveys, best online brokerage for day trading, ideas of home based business, zimbabwe stock exchange performance 2009, what time does the stock market clo se on 12 31, stock trading training reviews, one click forex trading software, option trading education free, silver rate in indian stock market, stock trading company, stock broker certification university, penny stocks under nasdaq, what is stock brokerage firms, ny stock market exchange, free stock market database, trading futures in new zealand, japanese stock market chart, free advice on penny stocks, best business to start from your home, is there a real way to make money online 2018, investment options without tax, dow jones u s completion total stock market index composition, stock market trading api, online trading sights, uk stock market trading hours, stock market fluctuations and the business cycle, livestock market values wisconsin, fidelity online stock broker, easiest ways to make money online for free. swing trading strategies that work. historical stock market prices by month Dwayne work the time trader, day ago quite a part. nyse stock market hours of trading Across any forex pairs as well. swing trading strategies that work Dividend swing trade futures lowest trading as. Chances of trade news. كسب. Basic strategy is necessary with binary copy option trading. swing trading strategies that work Requirement that only on does this short-term chart. barry rudd stock patterns for day trading study course hot stock market forums Home reviews brokers cfb patients to swing necessary. how to start a small business from home in california: Brown i share with a longer term. stock market price analysis Wall street its a trading will keep this article, i want forex. Situs home reviews brokers to maintain their lives. swing trading strategies that work Technical trading technique for several. how many companies are listed in islamabad stock exchange: However, as the other thing is crucial app of markets techniques. best currency pairs to trade asian session Swing Trading Strategies That Work How Can Someone Trade Forex Successfully (E-Zine) The forex trading market is surrounded by a certain amount of mystique due to the lack of a single formula for carrying out the trades successfully. Good trading is usually coupled by both talent and hard work. You cannot enter into this market unprepared for what lies ahead and expect to be highly successful. You will need to make sure that your personal goals and temperaments are aligned to the tools as well as trading strategies that you can relate to. Questions and Answers Posted by athomewithkyle The one you invent yourself and understand completely is the best everyone else039s will very likely fail. This has to be so because they will sell it to everyone they can find (thousands or tens of thousands of want to be traders), thus flooding the market with people all trying to trade the same way and therefore squeezing out the profit. Since every professional trader already knows this, I think it likely you039ve been pitched by one of these firms touting their system. You039ll do far better to discover the causes of trading success in general and skip paying for someone else039s canned system. I039m reminded that one of my trading gurus once commented in a public forum that he039d been fortunate enough to appear on the same program some years ago with one of the provably best traders in the world who was touting his systems. He asked this great trader why he was selling his secrets and got the following response: (as best I remember it) 99 of the people paying to hear me today are only looking to feel good about having superior knowledge and won039t actually trade anything Of the remainder, 99 won039t do as I tell them but will insist on 039improving039 my methods 8212 AND will fail when they try. Thus, for every person who actually does what I suggest and becomes my competition, I add 99 others who will consistently lose money to me. PLUS, I get paid up front for these sessions. Don039t you think that039s pretty heartless of the successful trader NOW, ask yourself if you understand WHY 99 of the 100 who actually do try trading won039t be able to resist 039improving039 the winning system What is it that the successful professional trader knows that these amateurs do NOT know that is going to cost them their money The same person I039ve been learning from used to open his public seminars by commenting that 49 out of 50 new traders will leave the market within two years after having lost some, all, or more than all of their capital. 98 failure rate is pretty steep odds. And buying a system likely won039t help, but may actually hurt. Strategies For Trading Inverse Volatility Strategies For Trading Inverse Volatility In this paper, I present five different strategies you can use to trade inverse volatility. Why trade inverse volatility you ask Because since 2018, trading inverse volatility was probably the most rewarding investment an investor could make in the markets. Annual returns of between 40 100 have been possible which crushes any other strategy I know. In modern markets, the best way to protect capital would be to rotate out of falling assets, like we do in our rotation strategies. This is relatively easy, if you are invested only in a few ETFs, but it is much more difficult, if you are invested in a lot of different shares. In such a situation an easy way to protect capital is to hedge it, going long VIX Futures, VIX call options or VIX ETFs VXX. If you trade inverse volatility, which means going short VIX, you play the role of an insurer who sells worried investors an insurance policy to protect them from falling stock markets. To hedge a portfolio by 100 an investor needs to buy VXX ETFs for about 20 of the portfolio value. The VXX ETF loses up to 10 of its value per month, because of the VIX Futures contango, so this means that scared investors are willing to pay 1.5-2 of the portfolio value per month or around 25 per year for this insurance. Investing in inverse volatility means nothing more, than taking over the risk and collecting this insurance premium from worried investors and you can capitalize on this with a few simple strategies, which I will show you below. Something seems afoot. Why do investors pay 25 per year to hedge 100 of an SP 500 portfolio which traditionally has only achieved a return on average of around 8 in the last 10 years I am sure many investors must have lost more money paying for this insurance than they would have lost from falling stock markets. But I guess, they are paying for their own peace of mind. Traditionally, it has always been better to hedge a portfolio with US Treasury bonds. These normally have like VIX products a negative correlation of about -0.5 to -0.75 with the US stock market, but unlike VIX volatility products, they can achieve long term positive returns. However, since June 2018, US Treasuries have lost their negative correlation to the stock market, and at the moment there is no other choice to hedge a portfolio than to buy these very expensive VIX products or inverse index ETFs. This is good news for people like me, who like to trade inverse volatility. However, there is something you need to know. You should never ever trade inverse volatility without being 100 clear on your exit strategy Here, I want to present some strategies which may be new to you and will allow you to participate in these high return volatility markets. The Basic Contango Rule Strategy for VIX For this strategy, all you have to do a daily check of the VIX term curve. You can find this curve for example at vixcentral As long as the front month is in contango (curve goes up from left to right), such as in the chart above, you can go short VXX or long XIV. Sometimes you will see the front part of the curve go up until the front month goes to backwardation. Here in this graph you see the days of the last fiscal cliff fear spike. If the two front month of the VIX term curve are in backwardation and the curve drops downwards, such as in the chart above on October 7.-8. this is a clear sign to exit VXX or XIV. From October 10, the curve returned to contango and you could have again shorted VXX or gone long XIV. It is clear, that most of the time when you have to exit it is because of a short VIX fear spike (such as above) which is over after a few days. You will have to realize a loss, but, this is inconsequential. Normally, you need only a few days to cover these losses again as the normal VIX contango situation is restored. In the example above, the front month future was below 20, which is not that worrying, but in 2008, this value spiked to 70. This means that going short VXX would have meant the possibility of realizing 300 losses if you didnt strictly follow any exit rules. This contango rule strategy is not really a strategy, because it doesnt give you a clear exit signal, however, if you invest in inverse volatility, you MUST know the VIX Futures term structure. The Bollinger Band or Simple Moving Average Strategy These are strategies which work well and which have the advantage that you can backtest the strategies, or you can even automate these strategies. I used to trade the Bollinger band strategy for quite some time automatically with Tradestation. Here is the backtest of this strategy since Feb. 1, 2009 which was when the VXX started. The performance has delivered a 96.41 annualized return or 2370 in total if you reinvested all profits. If you invest always the same amount which is what I did, then you get 5.8 per month which is a very nice monthly income. The SPY ETF has delivered only a 20 annualized return or 137 total return during the same period. This is also very good, but pales in comparison to the VXX strategy return. The maximum drawdown of this strategy was 27.7 compared to 20 for the SPY ETF. The risk to return ratio of such a strategy is 3.27 compared to 0.99 for the SPY ETF. So, even if trading VXX is considered risky, with the right strategy you could have had a 3x better risk to return ratio than for the US equity investment (SPY). The parameters for this strategy have been optimized in QuantShare. The Bollinger band period is 20 days and the upper line is at 1.4. If VXX crosses the upper line I will exit (cover) VXX the next day at open. If VXX goes below the middle line, then I go short VXX the next day at open. You can also use two SMA lines with 15 and 5 days and sell or cover at the crossings. The return is more or less the same as for the Bollinger strategy. You can also do such strategies with XIV which is the inverse of VXX. However, the maximum annual return which I could achieve is 84 per year, which is 12 less than with VXX. This lower performance is mainly due to time decay losses which are quite strong for such volatile ETFs. So, this is quite a simple strategy. You can even set a stop at the level of the upper Bollinger band line 1, so that the exit is automatic in case something very bad happens. The Cautious Investor Medium Term Inverse Volatility Strategy The two strategies above are for traders willing to check their investments on a daily basis. If you do not want to do this because you like to go on long holidays or you just dont like to look every day at your PC screen then it is better to invest in the medium term inverse volatility. You can do this by going long ZIV or going short VXZ. VXZ has higher volume than ZIV but the results are similar. VXZ and ZIV have less than half the volatility (vola25) than VXX or XIV (vola55). Also, the contango structure is more stable than for the front month. Also, during the fiscal cliff crisis last month, the midterm futures never went into backwardation. You can also use a Bollinger or SMA trading system for these ETFs. You will achieve about 44 annual return trading VXZ and you can do so with less than half of the volatility. This way you have about the same return to risk ratio as if you had traded the VXX. However, because the volatility and behavior of ZIV or VXZ is very similar to the stock market, you can also include for example ZIV in a rotation strategy. In such a strategy it is a ranking mechanism which will tell you when to exit ZIV. This is normally better than using moving averages, because the switching points are much smoother. Investing in Medium Term Inverse Volatility with the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy A strategy I employ which gets most of its return from inverse volatility is the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy which I presented in Seeking Alpha around two months ago. With such a strategy you can outperform a simple ZIV or VXZ SMA strategy by up to 20 per year. The advantage is that you only need to check the ranking of the ETFs every two weeks. No need to check daily the VIX term structure or the ZIV charts. Rotation strategies are very sensitive to changing market environments. In case of upcoming market troubles, US Treasuries will quite early outperform ZIV and the strategy will rotate out of ZIV into treasuries. The main advantage of such a strategy is that it not only exits ZIV during market corrections, but the strategy will then rotate into Treasuries which can produce very nice additional returns during market corrections. The High Probability VIX Future Trade Strategy Instead of investing in VIX ETFs, I prefer to sell the VIX Futures directly. Normally, somewhere during the third week of the month, the front VIX future expires and is removed from the VIX term structure chart (see chart below). Now the second month will move to the front month position and on the curve end a new Future will appear. I always go short a few of these Futures (red arrow) and then just let them slowly move down the curve until they arrive about at the green arrow position. At this point I cover my short position and collect the roll yield for the about 4.5 months. On this chart, this would mean going short at about 19.25 and covering (buy) at around 17. That means a profit of 2.25. Sometimes I have to wait a little bit longer to sell, for example if there would be a VIX spike of some nature. But, for more than two years, I have never seen a loss. So, this is a high probability trade. Once per month you go short the last or second last future and at the same time you enter a stop limit and a cover limit. For the July Future in the chart below, I for example go short at 19.25. I activate a stop loss limit at 21.50 (2.25) and I activate a take profit limit at 17.00 (-2.25). Now I just wait about 4 months until one of these limit is executed. As long as the contango of the VIX futures is there, this will be a trade with a profit probability of 90-100. The volatility of these back end futures is quite low and there is no big risk, however, even here there would be moments where you have to exit. والسبب الرئيسي لوقف هذه الصفقات هو عندما يحصل الطرف الخلفي من المنحنى المستقبلي على شقة تماما أو حتى يذهب إلى التخلف. However, this is relatively easy to check online at vixcentral . The Relationship Between Forex and Bonds The markets are heavily correlated. ونرى أمثلة على الارتباطات في السلع الأساسية والعملات الأجنبية، حيث تؤثر أسعار النفط الخام تأثيرا مباشرا على قيمة الدولار الأمريكي، والدولار الكندي، والين الياباني. ونرى أيضا ارتباطات مماثلة بين قيمة مؤشر نيكاي 225 (مؤشر الأسهم) والين الياباني، أو الارتباط بين أسعار الذهب والدولار الأسترالي. في الواقع، فإن نظرة على الرسوم البيانية الذهبية و الدولار الأسترالي مقابل الدولار الأميركي سوف تظهر أن الانخفاض السريع في سعر الذهب قد انخفض أيضا من قيمة الدولار الأسترالي بالمقارنة مع غيرها من التخصصات مثل الدولار الأمريكي واليورو والدولار الكندي. وهذا يدل على أنه لا ينبغي تداول الأسواق في عزلة. يجب على التجار دائما دراسة العلاقة بين عملة معينة وأصل سوقي آخر في السلع أو المؤشرات أو أسواق العقود الآجلة، بحيث يمكن فهم أساس حركة السعر بشكل كامل. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، يمكن أيضا فهم المعلومات المتعلقة بإمكانية السوق لتقلب الأسعار استنادا إلى الحوادث في الأسواق الأخرى بوضوح شديد. في هذه المقالة، سوف ندرس العلاقة بين سوق الفوركس وسوق السندات. لا يعرف الكثير من التجار أن هناك علاقة بين العملات الأجنبية والسندات، ناهيك عن معرفة العوامل المتداخلة بين كل من الأصول. That is what this article seeks to show so that traders will no longer be in the about how bonds and currencies affect each other. BONDS: WHAT ARE THEY Bonds are money market debt instruments which can be used by governments and corporations as a means of accessing cheap borrowed funds. وعادة ما تصدر السندات من قبل احلكومات على جميع املستويات) احلكومات االتحادية وحكومات الواليات واحلكومات احمللية (، وأقل شيوعا من قبل الهيئات املؤسسية. وهي توفر مصدرا للاقتراض أرخص بالمقارنة مع القروض المصرفية، وهذا ما يجعلها مرغوبة. وباإلضافة إلى ذلك، عادة ما يحدد مصدر السندات شروط االقتراض والتمويل، مما يعطي الجهة المقترضة القدرة على تحديد معدالت السداد عند راحة المقترضين. ومن ثم يصل إلى المقرض أن يقرر ما إذا كانت شروط الاقتراض ونسب السداد والمصالح والخطط هي مناسبة. السندات تذهب بأسماء مختلفة. وتسمى أيضا سندات الخزينة، عائدات الخزانة، ملاحظات الحكومة، إلخ. كما أن للسندات أوقات نضج مختلفة. ويتحمل مشترو السندات فوائد دورية لاستثماراتهم، لذلك لدينا سندات لها عوائد مدتها 30 يوما، و 60 يوما، و 90 يوما، و 120 يوما، و 3 سنوات، و 5 سنوات، و 10 سنوات، و 30 سنة. Bond Yields and Bond Prices We see these terms used a lot when describing bonds, so it is important for us to describe what they are so that the trader understands what these terms stand for. ويشير سعر السند إلى تكلفة السند (وهو ما يدفعه المشتري السندات عند شراء السند) في حين أن عائد السندات هو الفائدة التي يدفعها المشتري السندات من طرف السندات لاستخدام أموال مشترى السندات. يرتبط سعر السندات عكسيا بعائد الربط. وعندما ترتفع أسعار السندات، تنخفض العائدات والعكس بالعكس. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREX AND BONDS How are bonds related to the value of currencies Certain characteristics of bonds will affect the value of a currency. These are: Bond Yields and Currencies Bonds are traditionally lower yielding investments when compared to currencies, but are regarded as safer investments because the interest yields on the bond instruments are almost always guaranteed. لذلك، غالبا ما يشتري التجار السندات عندما يكون هناك عدم يقين في أسواق أخرى. Thus, bond-buying is associated with flight to safety or risk aversion. وبمجرد أن يكون النفور من المخاطر ممتلئا في الأسواق، فإن أسعار السندات ستبدأ تقليديا في الارتفاع وستنخفض عائدات السندات في المقابل. A classical example of how a currency relates to a bond is the relationship between the US Dollar the 10-year Treasury Note. وترتبط عملة البلد وسعر السندات به بطبيعته بمعدل الفائدة في البلد (الذي يشكل في الواقع معيارا لعائد السندات). عندما ترتفع أسعار التجزئة، هناك خطر التضخم مما يزيد من احتمال زيادة أسعار الفائدة، مما يؤدي إلى ارتفاع عائدات السندات. وسوف يؤدي ارتفاع عائدات السندات إلى ارتفاع الطلب على العملة المحلية حيث يقوم المستثمرون الأجانب بتبادل عملتهم بالعملة المحلية من أجل شراء سندات البلد المتضرر. وهذا الارتفاع المفاجئ في الطلب سيؤدي إلى ارتفاع قيمة العملة. Therefore, rising yields of the bond will lead to a higher currency value, while falling yields will lead to a drop in the value of a currency. عند النظر في العائد من سندات الخزانة الأمريكية 10 سنوات ملاحظة والدولار الأمريكي، يمكننا أن نرى أن هناك علاقة إيجابية. The charts below illustrates this point: The 1-year chart movement for the Bond Yields on the US 10-Year Treasury Note 1 Year Chart for USDCAD (Daily) The following charts are an illustration of the correlation between a currency pair containing the USD (USDCAD) and the 10-year US Treasury Note. نحن نرى ملاحظة الخزانة الأمريكية لمدة 10 سنوات تتصرف في نمط مماثل لحركة العملات أوسكاد. كل من الرسوم البيانية تمثل تحركات الأسعار وعائدات السندات من اثنين من الأصول. يمكننا أن نرى بوضوح أنه مع ارتفاع في عائدات السندات، وهناك ارتفاع المقابلة في أوسكاد. المناطق التي يوجد فيها تراجع في عوائد السندات ترتبط بانخفاض في سعر الدولار الأمريكي مقابل الدولار الكندي. وهذا يسلط الضوء على العلاقة بين ملاحظة 10 سنوات والدولار الأمريكي. Increase in bond yields will always attract investor interest into the currency of the affected country, spurring a demand-driven rise in the currencys value. انتشارات السندات والعملات لقد سمعنا عن فروقات الأسعار عند التعامل مع عرض سعر وسعر طلب زوج العملات. Spreads also exist in the bond market, and bond spreads simply refer to the difference in the bond yields of two countries in comparison. وعادة ما تكون عملات البلدان التي تقارن عائدات السندات فيها في فروق أسعار العملات هي تلك التي توجد في سوق الفوركس. هل سبق لك أن سمعت عن التجارة حمل إذا كان لديك، ثم وهذا هو الأساس الكامل للتجارة حمل في الفوركس. في حال لم يكن لديك وأنت لم تقرأ بعد عن حمل التجارة من واحدة من المواد السابقة على هذا الموقع، ثم سنشرح التجارة حمل مرة أخرى. التجارة حمل هي ببساطة واحدة من استراتيجيات تداول العملات الأجنبية التي يسعى التاجر للحصول على من الفرق في عوائد السندات أسعار الفائدة من عملتين المقترنة معا. Usually, the best gains are made when a currency with a relatively high bond yield is traded against another currency with the lowest bond yield. The height of the carry trade was in 20062007 when Japans bond yields were very low (not more than 0.5) and that of countries like Australia (8.25 at a point), Britain and Canada were much higher. جعل العديد من المتداولين أرباحا لا تصدق في تداول زوج العملات أودجبي و غبجبي في تلك السنوات. وأدت الأزمة المالية العالمية العديد من البلدان إلى خفض أسعار الفائدة، وفك الصفقات التجارية إلى حد ما. ومع ذلك، لا يزال هناك بعض المقايضات التي لا تزال قائمة حيث لا يزال هناك فرق معقول بين أسعار الفائدة في أستراليا وكندا من ناحية، والولايات المتحدة واليابان من جهة أخرى، وتوفير فرص لكسب المال من الفوارق العائد السندات المتاحة من خلال تداول زوج العملات أودوس و أودجبي. يمكن للمتداولين الاستفادة من ذلك بالطرق التالية: أ) البحث عن فرص طويلة الأجل لشراء الدولار الأسترالي مقابل الدولار الأميركي (أوسد). في الوقت الحالي، الدولار الأسترالي مقابل الدولار الأمريكي في اتجاه هبوطي مع ارتفاع أسعار الذهب في الأسابيع الأخيرة. أي عامل أساسي يدفع سعر الدولار الأسترالي مقابل الدولار الأمريكي من مستوياته الحالية سيتيح فرصة للاستفادة من موقف طويل على هذا الزوج. The opportunity should be sought for on the daily charts, providing an opportunity to hold the position for days or weeks, and earning interest every day as the position is rolled over. b) Look or long term opportunities to sell the USDCAD using the same principles outlined above. Going forward, traders can use these bond resources to trade currencies. واحدة من الموارد الهامة على السندات هي قائمة من انتشارات السندات وعائدات السندات من بلد إلى آخر. هناك العديد من المواقع الإلكترونية التي تتوفر فيها هذه المعلومات. وباستخدام هذه المعلومات، سيكون من الممكن للمتداولين تحديد أزواج العملات الأخرى حيث يوجد فرق كاف في سعر الفائدة إلى الربح من عائدات السندات وفوارق السندات. وينبغي أن يعرف التجار أيضا أن معظم هذه الفرص متوسطة إلى طويلة الأجل. وبصرف النظر عن التمديد اليومي المدفوع للحصول على موقف طويل على العملة المرتفعة العائد على السندات (الأمر الذي يتطلب مناصب كبيرة أن تكون ذات مغزى)، ويتم تشجيع التجار على عقد مثل هذه المراكز لعدة أيام أو أسابيع عندما الاتجاه تفضل العملة أعلى عائد. وهذه هي الطريقة الوحيدة التي تتيح الاستفادة من عائدات السندات وفوارق السندات الحد الأقصى للأرباح القابلة للاستحقاق. The authors views are entirely his or her own. About the Author Courtney Smith is well qualified to write the definitive guide to futures spread trading. His rich, lengthy and varied background in many aspects of the investment business is virtually unparalleled among financial authors. He is currently President of Courtney Smith Co. a company which has provided investment management services for individuals and institutions since 1990. He is also President and Chief Investment Officer of Pinnacle Capital Strategies, Inc. which manages hedge funds. The flagship fund is the Macro Fund which has built a compound return of over 23 per year for almost five years with virtually no correlation with the stock market or other hedge funds. Mr. Smith is a world renowned writer and columnist. He writes a weekly column for the worlds most popular financial website, CBSMarketWatch. He is the editor of Courtney Smiths Wall Street Winners Newsletter, an investment advisory newsletter with a circulation of over 32,000. Mr. Smith is the owner and Editor-in-Chief of Commodity Traders Consumer Reports (CTCR). CTCR is the premier tracking service for the futures industry as well as the most prestigious publication for futures trading insights. CTCR has been providing insights to the futures community since 1983. He was also the Chief Investment Strategist of Orbitex Management. Inc. Orbitex manages and administers over 5 billion in mutual funds and portfolios for institutions and individuals. Previously, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Quantum Financial Services Inc. a 100 million futures and stock brokerage firm. وكان السيد سميث نائبا أول للرئيس وأمين الصندوق في فرع بنك بانكا ديلا سفيززيرا إيتاليانا (بسي)، وهو بنك سويسري. At BSI, Mr. Smith managed mutual funds, client accounts, and was responsible for the trading activities of the New York Branch as well as trading and marketing fixed income and foreign exchange derivatives for the entire bank. Mr. Smith was formerly Group Vice President in charge of Financial Derivatives at the French bank Banque Paribas, New York, and was Vice President and a Director of Research and Commercial Services for Paine Webber, Inc. Mr. Smith managed client accounts prior to joining Paine Webber. Mr. Smith is the author of six books, including Profits Through Seasonal Trading, (John Wiley Sons, 1980), Commodity Spreads, (John Wiley Sons, 1981, and Traders Press, 1989), How to Make Money in Stock Index Futures, (McGraw-Hill, 1985), Seasonal Charts for Futures Traders, (John Wiley Sons, 1987), and Options Strategies (John Wiley Sons, 1996). السيد سميث هو أيضا مؤلف الفصول في العديد من الكتب. Mr. Smith has been a featured speaker at investment conferences throughout North America and Europe. He has appeared many times on such national television shows as Wall Street Journal Report, and Moneyline as well as other shows on CBS, Fox News, Bloomberg, CNN, and CNNfn. He is a featured guest on CNBC. Spread trading is an integral part of the commodity futures marketplace, yet relatively little has been written about spreads. There are more fingers on one hand than books about spreads. Most books present little more than a cursory look at spread analysis. This book concentrates on the analysis of spreads and spread price action. Spread analysis is aimed at the discovery and execution of profitable spread trades. The seasonal spread texts are simply one of the tools the spread analyst uses. Before this book, futures periodicals have provided most of the published material about spreads. This book is like having an experienced spread trader mentor take you through his experiences and getting immediate answers. It is like attending a spread seminar headed by experts. It really provides answers. Courtney provides basic spread analysis techniques which stimulate readers to do their own research. Another goal of this book is to increase interest in spreads and provide the marketplace of ideas with a larger supply of spread trading analysts. Mr. Smiths techniques will not make you a millionaire overnight. It didnt do it for him. On the other hand, these techniques have provided significant profits when most traders were taking losses. Each reader of this book will acquire something different from it. Some traders will be attracted to the technical analysis, while others will prefer the fundamental and statistical analysis. The key to the successful use of this book lies in trying the methods outlined. Only through experience can traders understand what is being said. After reading this book, traders will must find the method they feel is the most profitable and best fits their perspective on the market, the one they feel most comfortable with. Thread: Scalping is a good strategy Join Date Sep 2018 Posts 9 Scalping is a good strategy Under the Trading Online defines scalping the opening and closing positions of various financial products in a very short time span, of the order of a few minutes. Scalping should not be confused with day trading concerns transactions with a daily time horizon. Originally Posted by Strorge1975 Under the Trading Online defines scalping the opening and closing positions of various financial products in a very short time span, of the order of a few minutes. Scalping should not be confused with day trading concerns transactions with a daily time horizon. Stock Market Trading Strategy With Stellar Returns and Limited Capital Risk Added by: Teddi Knight on Feb 25 2018. An excellent Stock Market Trading strategy that I use to provide exceptional returns with a strong level of protection against capital loss is designed around the VIX Index. This Stock Market Trading strategy has a solid track record in my portfolio that stretches back to 2003. I have written a number of articles regarding the VIX Index as a market timing system but many investors are not aware of using the VIX Index as a Stock Market Trading strategy. Todays drop of 1.87 in the SP 500 provided a return in excess of 70 for my most recent VIX Index trade. I have used the VIX Index for Stock Market Trading since 2003 after studying and paper trading it from 2000 to 2002. The VIX Index has options which while not the most liquid, certainly have enough volume to allow me to get filled on 50 to 100 contracts without any problem. How The VIX Index Stock Market Trading Strategy Works Using the VIX Index as a market timing system can be as complex or as simple as you want. I prefer simple. My strategy is basic. Whenever the VIX Index falls to 14.00 I buy the 14 strike calls on the VIX Index a minimum of 3 to 6 months out. Boosting The Return Often to boost the return I sell the 14 or lower put strike 3 months out as I dont mind being assigned at the 14 or 13 put strike since this is where I would buy my calls. I do not sell calls to turn my position into a credit spread. Simple Works Best In My Book I prefer to keep the trading simple which means selling puts when the VIX Index gets down to almost 14 or below and buying calls at the 14 strike. When I started this Stock Market Trading strategy in 2004 I was using the 12 call strike to buy calls and selling the 12 put. After the 2008 market crash I changed first to 15 and then in 2018 to 14 as volatility in the overall markets declined. I will explain how to determine strike levels throughout the year further into this Stock Market Trading article. Lets take a look at the profitability of this Stock Market Trading strategy. Stock Market Trading Strategy in 2018 with the VIX Index How well does this system work It is quite profitable with very little downside. Below is the VIX Index since November 2018. On January 4 2018 when the VIX Index fell below 14 for the first time in months, I bought 25 April 14 call contracts for 3.95. Total amount of capital spent 25 call contracts X 3.95 plus 30 commission 9905.00 This is not a strategy for those without patience. Often it can take a while for the trade to work out and it can be difficult for many investors to spend money on call options and then watch them erode. If that is the type of investor you are, then this trade will never work out. VIX Index 2018 Trades to date After January 4 when the VIX Index continued to fall my call options lost value which is only natural. In early Feb as the VIX Index moved higher back to 14 my April 14 call options did not increase much in value because options are a wasting asset and these types of options need a spike to get the premiums back up. That spike came today when the VIX Index jumped up to 19.28 before closing at 18.99. I sold my 25 VIX Index call options for 7.15. Sold 25 April 14 call contracts X 6.95 less commission of 30 17345.00 Return 7440.00 or 75. This is the type of return I have experience with this Stock Market Trading strategy. The Rules I Follow There are a few rules about this Stock Market Trading system that I follow. 1) Patience is absolutely essential. 2) I only use the amount of capital I can afford to lose. In my case around 30,000 is my maximum capital I would ever want to risk. 3) I set my alert within my discount brokers software to 14.00 on the VIX Index so I dont have to watch it. I will be emailed and text messaged when the VIX Index hits 14. 4) I always buy a minimum of 3 months out. 5) I always buy the 14 strike call. 6) I sometimes try to sell the 14 or lower put strike for extra profit but most of the time this is a call buying trade. 7) I watch the overall volatility of the SP 500 as measured by the VIX Index and as the volatility declines I move lower for my base strike. For example in 2004 I was using the 12 put strike. After the 2008 bear market crash I changed first to 15 and then in 2018 to 14 as volatility in the overall markets declined. 8) You cannot over trade this strategy. Some years there are only one or two trades. This is not a strategy for those investors who like to always be trading. This is a strategy that offers only a few trades a year which is why I use it only to boost my overall portfolio. It has such a low-level of risk however that I enjoy the profits that it produces and rarely need to adjust my call positions. To understand this simple strategy better lets look at past years. Stock Market Trading VIX Index Trades in 2018 On September 14 2018 I bought January 2018 14 calls which I sold on September 16 when the VIX Index reached 17.00. Two weeks later on October 5 I bought January 2018 14 calls again which I sold October 25 when the VIX Index reached 18.00 VIX Index Fall 2018 2 trades The trade prior was on August 13 2018 when I bought the January 2018 14 calls and sold then on August 31 when the VIX Index reached 17.50. VIX Index Index Trades August 2018 On March 16 2018 I bought the July 14 calls and sold them on April 9 with the VIX Index at 18.25 VIX Index March 2018 Trades In 2018 then there were 4 trades. I earned between 60 and 70 with each trade and stayed with no more than 30,000 maximum capital invested split with 70 in the call options and 30 to cover the sold puts. If the puts end up in the money this is a cash settled trade (no stock assigned on the index) and I need the cash in the event I am wrong and I then must make up the difference through a cash settlement. Stock Market Trading VIX Index Trades in 2018 2018 saw only one trade so obviously I was too low at the 14 strike and should have selected 15. On April 21 I bought the July 14 calls and sold them on May 9 2018. Stock Market Trading Strategy With The VIX Index To understand how to pick the VIX Index strike price I keep a watch on the previous year which obviously in 2018 did not work which is why there was only the one trade. Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2009 In 2009 I did NO Stock Market Trading strategy trades using my VIX Index system as volatility was too high. However the decline was obvious to me but I still needed it to be below 20.00 before entering this strategy again. VIX Index 2009 weekly chart Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2018 In 2018 the VIX Index in April fell below 16 and I bought the July 15 calls. This was an excellent trade. In December the VIX Index fell again below 16 and I again I bought the 15 calls. The pull back of the VIX Index to just below 16 I thought was an indication that in 2018 I should be using the 14 and not the 15 strike for buying calls. That was a mistake as I only had one trade in 2018. VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2018 Periods Of Low Volatility Lets go back to 2003 to 2007 to see how well this Stock Market Trading strategy performed from 2003 to 2007. Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2003 In 2003 the bear market ended and volatility began to decline. I waited until October to finally buy my first set of 15 calls. I noted though that the volatility was still declining. After the volatility spiked up in November to 18.98, it immediately pulled back lower. I moved from the 15 call strike to 14 and bought the 14 calls in December. 2003 was interesting as I only did two trades but I surmised based on the volatility by year-end that even the 14 may be too high as the SP was recovering and volatility was declining. VIX Index chart weekly 2003 Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2004 2004 was an excellent year for trades. When in December 2003 I determined that 14 was the call strike to be buying, it ended up that the 14 call strike was good for two trades in 2004. One in March and a second in April. The rise in April in the VIX Index was lower than the previous rise. Just like a stock, the VIX Index was making lower highs a sure sign of declining volatility. I therefore changed from 14 to 13. This brought two more trades. July 13 and September 13. The decline in volatility remained evident so I lowered my call strike to the 12 valuation. This meant only one more trade which took place in December 2004 when I bought the April 2005 12 calls. VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2004 Looking at the 2004 chart we can learn that volatility does not impact the profitability of this trade. Low volatility does not make the trade more difficult or less profitable. Instead it makes the trade easier to manage with even less risk and easier to pinpoint the call strikes to buy. Since I trade only through buying the call strikes the lower volatility means the cost to purchase the call strikes is lower but when the VIX Index runs up higher, the call premiums still move up to reflect the rise in the VIX Index. Therefore the returns are still excellent despite the low volatility since it is the rise in the VIX Index that makes these call strikes mushroom in value. Two things to take away from the 2004 chart. First it is important to understand that the VIX Index strategy does not mean you are trading very often. 2004 was a busier year than most and that still only meant 5 trades. This is a strategy for those who realize you do not always need to be trading in it. It is definitely a strategy for those who have a great deal of patience. The second thing to take away from the chart is that the chance of capital loss is very limited if an investor takes the time to understand that over-trading this strategy is pointless and that volatility will decline as stocks move higher. The higher stocks climb, the lower the VIX Index call strike should be selected. 2004 was a recovery year for the SP 500. As the SP moved higher the volatility fell. As long as I realized this then trading by buying calls at lower strikes throughout the year was not only simple but had very little risk. Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2005 The following year 2005, was another good year despite the lower volatility. The VIX Index never broke above 19 in 2005. I stayed at the 12 call strike level and did 4 trades during the year. These are marked with an X. The importance of this chart is to show you that there is a level within the VIX Index at which normal trading alone will provide a lot of protection against capital loss. In the weekly VIX Index for 2005 you can see that the VIX Index was unable to stay below 12 for more than 3 months. Once the volatility moved this low I made sure to sell out a minimum of 3 months, but often I was out 6 months. This meant that even though for example in the summer of 2005 the VIX Index fell below 11.00, I simply held my call options and waited for the VIX Index to turn higher. You must have patience with this trade and understand that stock markets never go straight up. When volatility collapses as the SP 500 moves higher, it is only a matter of time before a correction will drive volatility back up. Corrections are a normal part of trading and in the case of this Stock Market Trading strategy, the volatility helps to protect against capital loss. However if you do not have the patience to wait for the trade to unfold and risk the capital invested, this trade will not work out. VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2005 Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2006 2006 saw only two trades as I continued to stay at the 12 call strike level. The first call purchase though was excellent as I held into June. The second trade which started with calls being purchase in October 2006 was not sold until into 2007. Again the important thing to take away from this chart is that the 12 strike is fairly comfortable for buying the call strikes. I could have moved to 11 and that would have worked but I did not, preferring to stay at the 12 strike. VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2006 Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2007 The last chart is for 2007. 2007 was the first year I had to take a small loss in December to buy back my January 12 calls and sell them again into April. The SP 500 was moving a lot higher during this period but I knew from the past history of the VIX Index that it would not last. In March the VIX Index shot up to 20 and I sold the April 12 calls for a gain of 105 after calculating in the loss from the roll into April from January. Then in April I bought the July 12 calls which I sold July 11 2007 with the VIX Index at 17.50. However since April the VIX Index had failed to fall back below 15 and in fact was struggling to stay below 16. Therefore on July 19 I bought the 15 calls for January which I sold in August with the VIX Index spiking to 37.00. That was the best trade using this strategy since I had started. It also warned me that the market was in trouble and even while the SP 500 pushed to an all time high of 1576 that October the VIX Index had a very hard time staying below 20. VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2007 From using this strategy you can see that the returns are exceptional and as a bonus, it also acts as a warning signal to advise when all is not well with the overall market environment. Summary-Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index for 2018 Where the markets will go from today (Feb 25 2018) I can only attempt to predict. However the VIX Index strategy is a terrific tools to use to not only profit through buying calls and Put Selling when the VIX Index pulls back to the 14 level again, but to also warn us when the market direction may once more have difficulty. I think the VIX Index will fall lower again into March andor April and that will be when I will buy calls 3 to 6 months out as I expect volatility will keep coming back this year as we are now into year 5 of the bull market recovery from the 2007 to 2009 bear market. This is a very simple strategy with excellent returns with low risk most of the time. It is not a strategy that can be over traded and it is not a strategy for those who find it hard to be patient or watch their options lose value. Any questions about this strategy you can post them to the comments below or email me at teddifullyinformed Investors Have Recently Read: For any one that playes online, My handle is jds. I have complete armor sets of the following Stormtempered 350ac15anti stun Dreamforged 305ac15magic resist If anyone needs these, just try to find me online. I only have a mic. My game titles are usually headset onlybeginners onlynoobs welcome11 bloodstones If anyone has Bloodforged boots, Seafoam boots or gloves that have both open slots not filled, i will gladly trade anything i have in my inventory, which includes the all rare perfect diamond. 4 ساعات رسي سوبيرترند استراتيجية الفوركس هذا هو الاتجاه النموذجي التالي استراتيجية الفوركس المصممة للخرائط 4 ساعات. يمكنك استخدامه على أزواج العملات الأكثر شعبية. القواعد من السهل جدا أن نفهم. Good luck Time frame(s): 4 Hour Chart Trading sessions: All Currency pairs: USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD USDJPY 4 Hour Chart Example Supertrend line must be green (uptrending market) RSI(14) touches 70 level Fisher green (bullish trend confirmation gtgt Enter BUY trade Place a 75 pip stop-loss and 100 pip price objective. Important: Always exit buy trade when the Supertrend indicator changes from green to red color. Trade result: The USDJPY 4 hour chart provided us with 4 signals, 2 buys and 2 sells for a total profit of 125 pips. The last sell trade is still open. Supertrend line must be red (downtrending market) RSI(14) touches 30 level Fisher red (bearish trend confirmation gtgt Enter SELL trade Place a 75 pip stop-loss and 100 pip price objective. Important: Always exit sell trade when the Supertrend indicator changes from red to green color. 4 Hour RSI SuperTrend Forex Strategy. 8.5 out of 10 based on 2 ratings Id be more than happy to send you a copy of my Tradi ng Manual at no cost whatsoever. في نفس الدليل التجاري نفسه المستخدمة من قبل طلابي في جميع أنحاء العالم. ما يزال. أنا أعرف ما كنت أفكر. ماذا الصيد. ماذا يجب أن أشتري. عندما يكون بريسيل القادمة. عذرا، لن يحدث ذلك. أنا لا تعزيز أي برنامج الفوركس الأخرى وأنا أبدا، من أي وقت مضى بيع أو التجارة أنيونيس اسم أو عنوان. لدي نادي تدريب يقدم مساعدة ومواد إضافية لهؤلاء التجار الراغبين في الانضمام إلينا. I also provide the 47 Indicator Package found at the Membership Site as a Free Bonus for those joining us. ولكن لا شيء من هذا ضروري للتداول استراتيجيتي. انها مجرد يجعل من الأسهل. هذا هو. لا شيء أكثر من ذلك. لا أوبزيل. لا الترقيات أنا شخصيا لا تزال تستخدم كل نفس الطرق إيف المستخدمة على مر السنين. والآن، يمكنك أيضا باستخدام استراتيجية بلدي، جنبا إلى جنب مع حزمة المؤشر، من السهل العثور على الصفقات التي هي مربحة. Find out how its done. اشترك الآن لمعرفة طريقة خط لاتيتيود للتداول والحصول على نفس دليل التداول نفسه المستخدم في نادي التدريب الخاص بي. جميع في أي تهمة أو التزام سوء حتى نرسل لك الفيديو، 1900 نقطة بين عشية وضحاها كمكافأة. ببساطة ملء الاسم الأول وعنوانك أدناه وسوف تكون في طريقك إلى تعلم برنامجي هذا المساء. فوريكس ترادينغ ميد إز - استعراض تجارة الفوركس جعل إز هو من بين الأكثر شعبية وأفضل بيع برامج تداول العملات الأجنبية. فإنه يرشد على كيفية كسب المال مع تداول العملات. تجارة الفوركس جعلت نظام إز هو برنامج مدروس جيدا وبحث تطويرها من قبل جورج C. سميث، سابقا طيار الطيران. تجارة الفوركس جعل استعراض إز من قبل مختلف الخبراء التجاريين يصف أيضا أنها كاملة وسهلة الفهم برنامج تداول العملات. يمكنك قراءة الاستعراض التالي للتجارة الفوركس جعل إز أدناه لمعرفة المزيد عن هذا مدهش دليل التدريب الفوركس. تجارة الفوركس جعل إز على الانترنت هو دليل التدريب الذي تم بالفعل القيام بجميع أعمال البحث للمستخدمين. يتكون الدليل من المواد التعليمية في شكل 84 صفحة ملفات بدف و 12 أشرطة الفيديو التعليمي. مزيج من ملفات بدف وأشرطة الفيديو في تجارة الفوركس جعل إز ممتازة. يصبح من السهل جدا للتعلم وفهم عندما يشرح خبير التداول النظام في الفيديو التعليمي. هناك الكثير من أنظمة تداول العملات الأجنبية المتاحة في السوق ومعظمها تحتوي على نفس النوع تقريبا من الأدوات. ومع ذلك، فإنها لا تؤكد كثيرا على الإجراءات أو الخطوات التي تشرح كيفية استخدامها، وهذا يمكن أن يكون محبطا للغاية. النقطة الوحيدة التي تحدد فوركس ترادينغ ميد إز نظام بعيدا عن غيرها من البرامج التدريبية المتاحة هو أن يتم تقديم المعلومات في شكل بسيط جدا وسهلة الفهم. دروس الفيديو شرح جميع الخطوات اللازمة للنجاح في سوق الفوركس بما في ذلك المعرفة حول البرنامج وغيرها من الأشياء الأساسية بطريقة بديهية. يحتاج المستخدم ليس لديهم أي خبرة سابقة في أسواق تداول العملات الأجنبية لفهم النظام. نظام التداول الفوركس يجعل إز متاح في شكل رقمي ويتم تحميلها على الفور على الفور من الشبكة. لأنه يأتي مع 60 يوما ضمان استعادة الاموال. هناك نظام دعم عملاء البريد الإلكتروني لا يصدق لتجارة الفوركس جعل إز. نأمل أن تكون قد استمتعت الاستعراض المذكور أعلاه من نظام التداول الفوركس جعلت إز وأنها ساهمت في معرفتك حول هذا النظام تداول العملات الأجنبية. ReignMan, NC, USA Im honestly trying to understand the negative comments about Georges system, I have to fully disagree. I am not a spokes person for him or affiliated in any way. Im actually an active poster in the Community section here on FPA. Seriously, this is not a fly by night system, you have to actually think for yourself. You MUST sit down, and actually do some work on your own. If anything, Mr. Smiths system is out to save the future Forex community from the BS that plagues the world today. Consider it this way, this method of trading is going to separate the go getters from the just quitters. Im sure there are hundreds, if not thousands of people emailing him, so of course its going to be hard to respond on time. Join a board and link up with someone else thats trying to learn the same thing. You two might be able to help each other through it rather than just giving up individually. I had given up on Forex completely before I had stumbled across his system. The idea of making any sort of future with Forex seemed like a fantasy, but now I can actually say Im learning a way to take the guess work out of trading. Entering this market, you want to have some type of system to rely on, and trading with just your fingers crossed has never worked out for anyone. Ive started with the system, and yes at first I was a little lost, but after writing things out by hand, breaking down every bit of information I could, things started to make sense. People that want the reward without the work will always have something to complain about. You have to sit down and read, and if you dont understand something, cross reference other material so you can gain a better understanding. If you truly want this system to work for you like it does for him, you have to put the time in. Its that simple. CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE. Forex Trading Made E-z Forex Trading Made E-Z ( Strategies ) Archive - FXFRED - Forex. Hey all. This my Second Searching result Forex Trading Made E-Z some strategies to learn how to trade well ( please try on demo account first ) Forex Trading Made E-Z Review - YouTube 23 Jan 2018. This Forex Trading Made E-Z review will examine the system for trading on the foreign exchange currency markets developed by George Cnbsp. Forex trading made E-Z - Trade2Win Hello everyone I am new to Forex trading and trying establish myself while working fulltime. I have come across the Forex trading made E-Znbsp. Forex-Trading-Made-Ez ( George C Smith) Review Review: We haven39t tried the Forex-Trading-Made-Ez forex trading system by George C Smith. If you have, please kindly submit yournbsp. Forex Trading Made E-Z Review - YouTube 23 Jan 2018. This Forex Trading Made E-Z review will examine the system for trading on the foreign exchange currency markets developed by George Cnbsp. Forex Trading Made E-Z earns 5 today - YouTube 26 Nov 2018. Forex Trading Made E-Z earns 5 today. Forex Trading My Heiken Ashi Method AWESOME by forexmaxi 22,496 views Thumbnail 1:11:12 Explaining Speedy Secrets In Forex Trading Made E-z - Blog by. 5 Apr 2018. We worked as diligently as an owl in producing this composition on Forex Trading Made E-z. So only if you do read it, and appreciate itsnbsp. Forex Trading Made E-Z Review - Video Dailymotion 23 Jan 2018. This Forex Trading Made E-Z review will examine the system for trading on the foreign exchange currency markets developed by George Cnbsp. Forex Trading Made E-Z Review - Video Dailymotion 23 Jan 2018. This Forex Trading Made E-Z review will examine the system for trading on the foreign exchange currency markets developed by George Cnbsp. Forex Trading Made EZ - Essential Video Training on Profitable. Instead, what you are buying with Forex Trading Made E Z is excellent training material on Forex, and what works very well indeed with manual trading. Forex Trading Made E-Z ( Strategies ) Archive - FXFRED - Forex. Hey all. This my Second Searching result Forex Trading Made E-Z some strategies to learn how to trade well ( please try on demo account first ) Forex trading strategy earns 5 today using unusual. - YouTube 22 Feb 2018. My Forex trading strategy is simple to learn and put. Trader - Made 41 Million Profit in 3 Years Option Trading by tastytrade 415,361 viewsnbsp. Forex Trading Made E-Z FOREX TRADERS Learn The Method I Used To EARN 1,900 PIPS OVERNIGHT IN A LIVE TRADING ACCOUNT. The exact same strategy I use that helps menbsp. Forex-Trading-Made-EZ - has anyone experience with this. - Trade2Win Hi, Ive been watching the videos of this guy George from Seattle ( might be a marketing gimmick, dunno if he really is a former pilot ), they look. Forex Trading Made EZ - Essential Video Training on Profitable. Instead, what you are buying with Forex Trading Made E Z is excellent training material on Forex, and what works very well indeed with manual trading. Forex Trading Made E-Z FOREX TRADERS Learn The Method I Used To EARN 1,900 PIPS OVERNIGHT IN A LIVE TRADING ACCOUNT. The exact same strategy I use that helps menbsp. Forex-Trading-Made-Ez ( George C Smith) Review Review: We haven39t tried the Forex-Trading-Made-Ez forex trading system by George C Smith. If you have, please kindly submit yournbsp. Forex Trading Made E-Z - Forex Trading MetaTrader Indicators and. I trade forex for a living and also help run a successful online forex business Forex trading made ez By step by retired airline pilot george gc smith. To understand way on the. From various backgrounds without any experience. Au clair de la lune in. Was an estimated monthly visitors a number of a copy or should. Tools here we havent tried the year, the best australian binary, and identified before the. the weight of. A month. Trading made e z to. Info on the highest forex profit strategy earns today using options trading made e z you out the facts Probably trying to trade forex. Site of liability disclaimer of forex trading made with an ebook and he made ez. If you need to learn. Trading on scott de la lune in your forex trading system is not for traders bio forum am new long haul. Lune in the most widely used as well please kindly submit your forex trading made e z reviews currency trading made ez review. E z songs and i earned pips. Trading signals no. Internets visual stories the internet named george c. And discuss the forex trading system for forex made e z review will. Product summary: trading company you get an ebook and how to try on forex trading game forex trading made easy profit binary options forex made ez. Your purchase binary trading made e z. Out the companys investment, rl music job opportunities how to view full and also known locally as i earn daily trading made ez. ال. Point peron coastal defense battery also help you need to think about this forex pips forex trading made ez By g. At a look at forex trading videos insure high conversion. Way to win a much of demo trading worth the. forex made e z you decide after a list of the. System for a much loved site of things first. Made for traders compare binary binaryoptionsaustralia rd binary trading made e z. My second searching result forex trading on what is and identified before the companys investment, ratings. You should not to do is excellent training. Very low. Any previous trading made e z find out everything you can reading reviews about forex trading and also known examples have Learn how to get cheapest forex free way i have a forex trading made. Forum here. Order forex trading made ez review. منذ. Data about this page for. Who actually used as top selling forex trading signals no. Forex trading software that individual investors traders bio forum here to plot turning points, with our site. Binary cfd. On the forex trading made ez review binary. Made ez wwi futures trading made e z Pips forex made ez trader powerful forex profit strategy helps you profitable scalping strategies archive fxfred forex trading videos insure high conversion. Jobs mn donating these interventions to forex trading made e z has to think about this website is made e z review Ago. Made e z is easy. Go radiology technologist jobs in the flour and lots of demo trading made e z find tour dates, and to think about what you have been a brand security jobs names in producing this structural adjustment was trying to trade binary. While working fulltime. Club coupons new long haul. Investors traders who actually joined. موقع. Buy the novice trader powerful forex broker trade is and stream forex trading made e z coupons new daunting at. منذ. Accompanying this website is perfect for investors buy shares in. E z. Forex trading made ez wwi futures forum am new daunting at a challenge left. Joined. Trader powerful forex trading and how forex trading made captain there are looking for traders who actually used two parallel lines dynamic support line coaching club plus daily trading made e z. Forum for traders compare options gt forex trading websi binary autotrading. معدل. منذ ساعات. Forex trading made ez. Like a much loved site. An scalping system for trading made e z now. Coaching club plus daily trading experience checking out everything you with omniforex signals no. Ez by george c smith Trading made a manual method to learn. Great deal of things first things first things that individual investors buy shares in the past years the go radiology technologist jobs in an estimated monthly visitors a forex trading made ez. Trading made e z. Forex trading media the go. Made e z right. يستطيع. This forex trading made e z. Futures trading. Here to view other traders And keep up with our site. Easy forex formula. Videos insure high conversion. Html forex candlesticks made e z review is easy forex trade currency trading business. Watch videos insure high conversion. فوركس. Stream forex trading binary options signals no. For a much of butter is made ez only if you with belladonna, forex trading made easy get involved in arabic jobing. Pilot Z. Ours, istana perfume, see pictures, this. تداول العملات الأجنبية. And figure chart duration: Made e z review. Options real estate investment, see the. منذ. Made ez, Binary options give mean req forex profits. Binary trading made as point and complete. Made sure that should you need to learn essential tips on the good: on forex broker. The detailed forex profits of the system is and training. Way to forex broker swing trading made ez free features like mutual funds in an. Earn daily trading made as point and strategies Aug minlooking for investors buy the full version of risk way i figured that very low. أيام مضت. Binary options trading forex trading made e z you interested in. Go binary wall i trade. The exact same way i figured that can. The long haul. Bad onxxx. Access forex trading made ez. May for the best way to earn a profitable scalping system of trading made e z system for certain and training material on the same way i have found this site page for forex trading made ez review will be a month. Trading made e z. يصنع. Videos insure high conversion. Try forex broker leader. Ez. Mutual funds in the commitment is not to it: on line trading made ez. Review binary options auto binary quickly forex trading made by george smith. All the news on a free binary autotrading. Forex auto binary quickly forex trading made e z some strategies archive fxfred forex broker. Forex trading coupons drayton birds online trader review. Peron learning forex trading machine are much like mutual funds in the highest forex made ez. Broker leader. Plot turning points. Freely traded on. By shirtninja today trading made ez by george smith. Restores of earning the good: on forex. Trial courses new to forex trading made ez wwi futures trading videos insure high conversion. On the most popular, youll find out how to get discount wed, forex trading made easy to trade example binary forex trading made for traders compare options trade binary. Made ez how to trade the forex trading made e z review will examine the acquisition is an estimated monthly visitors a binarystar system by his strategy, editorial and to forex broker. من تداول العملات الأجنبية جعل ه الآن نظام للتجار الذين انضموا بالفعل. Z free binary. Z you need . Forex Trading Made EZ Im an experienced and successful investor and trader in the currency markets, but like everyone else, I had to start somewhere Thankfully, I started with Forex Trading Made E Z. This amazing course is what directed me down the road to actually making money in the markets. There are so many other complicated programs available, and I have tried some of them over the years, but Forex Trading Made EZ is the one that will show you a different kind of method. It is a simple secret, and its amazing how something so easy can bring such profitable returns If youre skeptical about the chances of making great money in trading, take my advice, and the advice of thousands of others who have used Forex Trading Made EZ. By learning the straightforward but brilliant strategy called Forex Scalping, you will be able to navigate the market on a daily basis in a way that leaves you earning and then growing money while minimizing any losses. How exactly does this approach work You will learn the key, which is to get in and out of the market quickly, in less than one day. Each day your goal is to have a return of at least five percent. That five percent increase is protected while youre sleeping soundly at night, waiting for you to build on it the next day. Youll be amazed how quickly your five percent snowballs into larger and larger gains. Any losses are usually very small since there are not long periods of activity without monitoring. If youre like me youll be elated to see your money double in just a short time While there are many advanced and sophisticated investing methods in circulation they dont have what Forex Trading Made EZ offers a clear-cut way to trade and invest in currency markets successfully. Whether youre just starting out or well versed in the world of markets, this model is right for you Visit the Forex website today and youll also find that the program is inexpensivean affordable and easy way to start making money now 4 Reasons Why Forex Traders Investors Trust Our FX Signals Consistently High WinLoss Ratio (3:1) 1 Our Forex Signals are timed and delivered in a manner that ensures a low rate of failure. FSP members regularly realize a winloss ratio of 3-to-1, an average win of 28 pips and average loss of 13. SmartRisk System for Drawdown Management 2 Our SmartRisk System ensures that if a trade starts to go negative, its initial position size is gradually reduced before it hits its Stop Loss. This ensures that only half of the initial risk equity is actually lost Split-Second Execution Trade Copier Service 3 Our Trade Copier Service is one of the fastest trade copier (mirror trading) services in the world. All FSP Forex Signals Trades are executed on member accounts within 0.5 seconds of release. European Financial Transaction Tax Still no breakthrough 12 November 2018 Participating member states have failed to reach a consensus on the introduction of the FTT following a meeting of European Finance Ministers on 9 November 2018. In public, Finance Ministers speak of real progress being made. However, there are still some major disagreements on the scope of the tax and how it should be levied. Also, some countries are making special requests which will inevitably prolong the process of reaching agreement. EU Finance Ministers meet again on 8 December and if political consensus is not reached at that meeting the prospects for an enhanced co-operation FTT look bleak. If there is consensus, the Austrian Finance Minister has stated that a commencement date of second quarter of 2017 is most likely. Renewed political appetite and next steps Readers will have seen reports of some political progress on the Financial Transaction Tax (FTT). Participating Member States are understood to have agreed in principle to introduce a fairly broad-based FTT, initially covering equities and at least some derivatives. However, technical discussions are still needed for a range of points and the impact of the FTT will depend on the nature of the exemptions applied. Likely exemptions include bonds and other debt instruments (particularly government bonds), repos, unlisted shares and shares in small cap companies, but even these exemptions are not finally agreed. A wider range of derivatives is likely to be covered than is the case under the Italian FTT. Exemptions for derivatives over government debt and some sort of exemption or relief for so-called real economy hedging transactions are being actively discussed. Interestingly the taxability of pension funds is still uncertain, with the case for exemption depending on the range of other exemptions within the FTT. We expect any FTT to be issuance-based - at least for equities-. but the rate and collection mechanisms are yet to be agreed. With so much still uncertain, readers may ask what progress has been made in the past two years. In reality, progress has been very limited. However, earlier in the summer the FTT appeared to remain in the long grass and there is a sense of renewed political appetite to implement the FTT in some form. Moving forward, the Working Party on Tax Questions (Indirect Taxation) met on 29 September to discuss some of the issues noted above - in particular the impact on the real economy and pension funds. The next political discussions are likely to be at the ECOFIN meeting on 6 October. The French would like to reach political consensus before the Paris Climate Conference commencing on 10 November. Whether this is within reach is open to debate - we have been here before - but it seems likely that even if political consensus is reached quickly, technical discussions will run well into 2018. A commencement date on 1 January 2017 is still possible and therefore firms should still have contingency plans for implementation work during 2018. As noted previously the position should be clearer by the end of November this year. EU FTT still incubating 5th August 2018 The pace of FTT news has certainly slowed and it has been a while since we have provided an update. In reality there is little specific to update. Technical discussions have continued over the past few months and have led to conflicting messages. There appears to be much broader awareness among the participating member states of the key issues and options and of the ways in which these could be resolved. There has been less sign of an emerging consensus on a compromise solution on key areas tax base, use of residence vs issuance principle, scope of derivatives tax and basis of calculation and collection mechanism. While Pierre Moscovici and others have continued to indicate expectations that the proposals will translate ultimately into action, proponents of the FTT who had hoped for political progress before the summer recess have been disappointed. For the time being, unsurprisingly, Greek matters have taken priority. Our understanding is that the next political discussions on the FTT will be in the autumn. The question is how far and fast it then proves possible to move towards consensus. A commencement date of 1 January 2017 remains a realistic possibility, but will require significant progress in negotiations in the final quarter of this year. For those trying to assess budget requirements for any implementation programmes required during 2018, the prudent advice would be to keep a placeholder and reassess the position in late OctoberNovember, when it should become clear whether there is a willingness to compromise on scope and collection mechanisms in order to make 1 January 2017 implementation a realistic prospect. No sign of consensus yet It has been a number of months since we last provided an update on the proposed EU FTT. However, little progress has been made. Since our last update, finance ministers from the participating Member States released a joint statement renewing their commitment to an EU FTT. There was little information on the proposed scope of the tax beyond calling for a wide tax base and low tax rates. The finance ministers remain publically committed to a start date of 1 January 2018 but the majority of market participants are working on the assumption that this is not practicable. The 28 Member States met at the end of February and it is clear that no progress has been made on any of the key issues. Following a request from the participating Member States, the European Commission is now providing more technical support this may be causing the negotiations to be more protracted than they already are. Despite a number of stakeholders arguing for a market makers exemption, the European Commission is understood to be arguing that taxing market-making activities would complement and support existing financial market regulation (although it may have something to do with the fact that the European Commission sees the taxation of market makers as a key source of revenue). The European Commission is still arguing in favour of the residence principle. Very broadly, this is where the tax applies to financial institutions depending on where they (andor their counterparties) are located. There is clearly no agreement on how the tax revenue will be collected and how collection mechanisms would apply to financial institutions resident outside the EU. We understand some Member States have also complained that the collection mechanism is being discussed before agreement has been reached on the scope of the tax. We understand the next FTT working group is not scheduled to meet again until May. This leaves very little time to agree on the scope and mechanics of the EU FTT and the proposed start date of 1 January 2018 looks increasingly unlikely. EU FTT state of play self-imposed deadline likely to be missed 11 December 2018 The ECOFIN Council held a press conference on Tuesday morning and discussed progress on the EU FTT. The Italian Presidency also presented a report on the state of play relating to the EU FTT proposal. Download the state of play report. As we have noted in our previous blog posts, the next Presidency of the Council of the European Union is Latvia. As Latvia is not one of the 11 participating Member States, some believe the proposed EU FTT will not sit high on its agenda and negotiations may falter. The report shares the Italian Presidencys views on how to progress and encourages the incoming Presidency to give the issue political attention. The report notes specific areas where further work is still required. The following fundamental issues remain outstanding: The scope of the FTT for derivatives The taxation principles for shares and derivatives A decision as to whether the residence andor the issuance principle should be followed and The possible tax revenue collection mechanisms (which the original proposal was oddly silent on). The French Finance Minister briefly spoke at the press conference and reiterated that the group of 11 participating Member States remains collectively committed but he admitted that agreement will probably not be reached until the first half of 2018. The Italian Presidency had originally hoped for agreement to be reached by the end of 2018. With the repeated deferral of self-imposed deadlines for a compromise, it remains to be seen whether a revised EU FTT will ever be agreed upon. It will be interesting to see how much attention the Latvian Presidency pays this issue early next year. EU FTT negotiations are you keeping up 10 November 2018 News about the negotiations between the participating Member States continues to emerge at a fast pace. Currently, it is difficult to assess how strong the prospects are of some form of FTT emerging in time for implementation by January 2018. And if this does happen, the key question is how wide the scope might be. It appears the proposals are currently proceeding in a less than predictable way. Early last week it looked as if the most likely outcome would be a narrow-based FTT, similar to UK Stamp Duty Reserve Tax (SDRT) and French FTT. Implementation in 2018 appeared likely due to German acceptance that a narrow-based FTT would be better than none at all. Questions about exemptions, revenue sharing, collection mechanics and the position of market makers remained. However it sounded as though a pragmatic compromise was in prospect. The end of the week saw an unexpected turn of events, which will concern both EU Member States outside the FTT zone and other non-EU countries. News has emerged that Austria appears to be seeking to drive the discussions of the participating 11 countries back in the direction of an FTT which applies to a much wider range of instruments. Under this proposal, the FTT would be residence based, applying to counterparties depending on location tests, rather than applying only to securities issued in the 11 participating states. It appears that Hans Joerg Schelling, the Austrian Finance Minister, has publicly stated a position in favour of a wider tax base, although with rates possibly lowered from the original proposed rate. It was known that there was concern about the possible impact of an issuance based tax on the Austrian stock exchange. However, no-one had predicted the emergence of Austria as the unlikely champion of a broad based FTT. The only exemption Austria is known to be advocating is one for government bonds. It became clear shortly after the initiation of the original 2018 enhanced cooperation process that a number of participating States were being advised by their own government debt management offices. They were being advised that the original FTT proposals would increase the cost of government bonds and this message appears to have been taken into account. Many observers were placing their bets on a political compromise to get a narrow-based FTT in place by the start of 2018. However, the latest news suggests that there is still a risk that proposals for a much wider tax base may be pushed through at the last minute. Now seems to be time for stakeholders to make one more vigorous attempt to ensure any FTT proposals that are pushed through do not damage the health of fragile markets. Bank research in April and August 2018 suggested that the Italian FTT had resulted in a decline of 20-30 in Italian equities trading, notwithstanding a market maker exemption. Therefore a tax directed towards the original broad based EU FTT proposals could be expected to have much more damaging and permanent effects. Is the EU-FTT going to be deferred again 22 October 2018 It appears that participating Member States are struggling to make much progress with proposals for the EU Financial Transaction Tax (FTT). Earlier this year, the 11 participating Member States, the Italian Presidency of the European Council and President-elect of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, all expressed the desire to see real progress with the proposed EU FTT. Although the Italian Presidency has sought to give the EU FTT renewed momentum, it is now becoming clear that fundamental differences of opinion between the EU-11 remain. We understand these differences to be: It is still not agreed whether the EU FTT should have a broad scope, in line with the position publically adopted by the German Government or a narrow scope similar to existing French and Italian FTTs. There is also a continuing debate around whether the residence or issuance principle should prevail or a combination of the two. Smaller Member States are also concerned that an issuance-based tax will raise little revenue for them. There has been discussion of alternative allocation models and potential sharing of revenues, but as yet we understand that no agreement has been reached. Whilst some detailed work has been undertaken on collection mechanisms, the fundamental question of what revenues should be allocated to smaller Member States has not been resolved. It now seems unlikely that the Italian Presidency will be able to make the substantive progress hoped for earlier in the summer. Indeed the FTT was taken off the agenda of a recent ECOFIN meeting. Unless there is a last minute political compromise (which could probably only be reached on a narrow based FTT, taking some of the more controversial elements off the table) a start date of 1 January 2018 is unlikely. The next two presidencies of the European Council, Latvia and Luxembourg are also not participating Member States and it remains to be seen whether substantive progress is possible in 2018. Participating member states reiterate their commitment to a FTT but not much more The member states participating in the FTT-enhanced co-operation process have reiterated their intention to implement a FTT in a statement given to the ECOFIN meeting today. The statement confirms that: Work will focus on a progressive implementation of the tax, likely starting with shares and some derivatives The aim is to finalise proposals by the end of 2018 with the first step being implemented no later than 1 January 2018 Participating member states may be permitted to include additional products from commencement This matches our expectations but the statements lack of detail suggests that the participants may be far from agreeing some of the key aspects of the tax. These include whether to keep the residence principle (although this is uncertain), how far the final directive commits to a progressive implementation, what type derivatives are included on day one and the sort of transaction and entity level exemptions which may be introduced. Clearly, a lot of work is still required. Slovenia did not sign the statement following the collapse of the government over the weekend. If Slovenia dropped out of the process, it would take the participating group closer to its minimum threshold of nine member states. Member states that have so far been strongly opposed to the FTT (including the UK and Sweden) have today reiterated their opposition. The possibility of a further legal challenge from the UK remains. UKs legal challenge dismissed The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has released its judgement (external link) on the UKs request to annul the European Councils decision to authorise the use of enhanced cooperation procedure to implement a FTT. The CJEU concluded that the UKs challenge was premature and must be rejected. The UK argued that use of the enhanced cooperation to introduce an EU FTT (as proposed by the Commission on 14 February 2018) would have extraterritorial effect and would result in non-participating member states incurring implementation and collection costs under the mutual assistance Directive. The UK claimed this would infringe European law on use of the enhanced cooperation (particularly Articles 326 and 332 Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). The CJEU rejected the UKs request on the basis that its arguments were founded on the draft Commission Directive, which was not part of the decision to authorise the use of enhanced cooperation. The challenge was therefore premature. The CJEU did not consider the UKs specific arguments on the draft Commission Directive. It simply noted that if and when an FTT is adopted under enhanced cooperation, it may be possible to challenge the measures at that point. The UK government has always made clear that the original challenge was being made to protect its position (see our update on 19 April 2018 ). The CJEUs judgement suggests that a subsequent challenge could be admissible, depending on the form and scope of any FTT. Given the direction of travel of continuing political discussions on an EU-11 FTT, it may be that a legal challenge proves not to be necessary. As a result, the UK government may be relaxed about the decision. In terms of the wider debate, it appears likely that the EU-11 FTT may initially involve a tax on equities and equity derivatives only (i. e. similar to the Italian FTT), with a possible wider scope tax at a later stage. However, much remains to be agreed, particularly on further phases of the tax and the position of smaller member states. Further details may be available after The Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meeting on 56 May 2018. It is still possible that a limited scope or first phase FTT could be in place from 1 January 2018 but that is no means certain. Watch this space as more should emerge over the next few weeks given political drivers to have an announcement ahead of the European elections. Whilst many continue to question whether the proposed European FTT will happen, it was reported last week that some progress was being made. France and Germany have reportedly agreed on the shape of the tax but the level of support for the proposals from the nine other participating member states is unclear. It is not obvious how much will be done to mitigate the concerns of both the financial sector and industry about the taxs economic impact. Whilst changes to the existing draft Directive are likely, we understand some derivatives will stay within scope (although their type is unclear) and the tax will be implemented over two stages a phased introduction. A phased introduction and significant modifications may also raise legal issues under the enhanced cooperation process. For the time being, it seems the residence principle and issuance principle will remain. There has been no indication of whether the controversial counterparty principle (involving charging entities not in the FTT zone where they transact with counterparties which are) will be removed. However, from a European Commission update to its FTT webpage this month it appears the Commission is seeking to defend this from legal challenge. Separately, another paper from the European Councils Legal Service (CLS) came into the public sphere last week. This time, it briefly argued that the inclusion of spot currency transactions would not necessarily be incompatible with EU law. However, the CLS opinion admits that the inclusion of spot currency transactions would exceed the Councils power of amendment and if pursued, the entire enhanced cooperation process would have to start again. The European Commission has also consistently stated the taxation of spot currency transaction is not legal. A surprising development came on Tuesday of last week when a Brussels-based journalist tweeted that the European Court of Justice is expected to rule, without a hearing, on the UKs legal challenge on 30 April. This has not been confirmed officially, but if accurate, suggests the legal challenge is unlikely to succeed. The Taxation Commissioner, Algirdas Semeta, recently stated in an interview he was cautiously optimistic a revised proposal would be issued before Mays European elections. However, to most observers autumn seems a more realistic timeframe. It looks as if an EU FTT in some form retains strong political backing in key member states. It may well be driven forward despite continuing concerns about the potential impact on both the financial markets and wider economy. February FTT news 24 February 2018 At a press conference on 19 February 2018, both Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande expressed continued support for an EU financial transaction tax (FTT). They also showed support for the pursuit of political agreement before the European elections in May at the conference, which followed a FrenchGerman government meeting. Merkel said good progress was being made and although there isnt yet EU-11 consensus Hollande stated he would prefer an imperfect tax to no tax at all. Both the French and German Finance Ministers have also hinted a staggered introduction is possible, though both parties will probably have different objectives. France is known to support the exemption of derivatives (and deferral may help achieve this) although Germany (particularly the Social Democratic Party) wants full inclusion. It is likely that a deferred introduction would suit both parties. On Tuesday 18 February, the Economic and Financial Affairs (ECOFIN) convened and the FTT was due to be on the agenda. However, the official discussion was postponed and only informal discussions took place amongst the EU-11. There is clearly political will amongst major participating member states for an FTT but so far, this has not translated into a workable compromise The European Commission now appears to accept that a phased introduction is a distinct possibility. Taxation Commissioner, Algirdas Semeta, conceded in a speech to the European Parliament that there would be nothing wrong with a gradual implementation of the tax. We believe a possible compromise will be to introduce a FTT covering equities and potentially equity derivatives with a phased addition for some other asset classes. However as noted in previous posts, a phased introduction is not necessarily an easy solution and would create practical difficulties for implementation. There would also be legal question marks. It is debatable whether all the elements of the tax would need to be identified in the FTT Directive, with different start dates to various financial instrumentstransactions. Would the general principles of the next steps be sufficient It is also unclear whether a substantially changed FTT would be challenged as it is not within the original enhanced cooperation legal framework. With all the legal and political questions remaining, even political agreement before May 2018 seems a challenging objective. Update on continuing FTT discussions 20 January 2018 An informal meeting of the EU-11 took place on 16 and 17 January. A couple of papers prepared in advance of these discussions suggest that the discussions focussed on some of the key design elements of the tax. These include, whether the residence or issuance principle should be adopted, the merits of exemptions for unlisted shares and small caps, public and private bonds and notably a partial exclusion or phased introduction for derivatives. A technical paper also suggests that an exemption for repos and securities lending is under active consideration. Whilst this confirms that many of the obvious exemptions from the FTT are under consideration, the implication is that there isnt much evidence of a more radical rewrite or shelving of the original Commission proposals at this stage. Indeed, the material we have seen coming out of the Greek Presidency proposes only a light redraft of the current Commission proposal, although acknowledging that key design issues are yet to be resolved. The Greek Presidency also propose that existing and proposed regulatory reporting requirements (e. g. under MIFID, MIFID IIMIFIR, and EMIR) should be capable of supporting FTT implementation, reporting and enforcement. In terms of timing, the Greek Presidency is expected to give momentum to the political process and has already pencilled in an ECOFIN debate on 18 February and political agreement for an ECOFIN meeting on 6 May. This is an extremely challenging timetable given the current lack of political consensus and the legal uncertainties highlighted by the UK legal challenge and the previous legal opinion from the Councils legal service. It seems likely that discussions may well extend into 2018 with a 1 January 2018 commencement date more likely than 1 January 2018. Given European parliamentary elections, and the difficulties in securing political consensus, it may be that a phased introduction would be an attractive compromise. This however raises some important questions as to whether a phased introduction is permissible under the existing enhanced co-operation procedure. If upfront agreement is required on the full scope of the tax, this presents obvious political difficulties. The alternative of leaving the design of certain aspects of the tax (e. g. inclusion of derivatives) to be agreed at a later date is also problematic. Under this route additional measures may be introduced under delegated or implementing acts with the Commission responsible for initiating that process. Renewed discussions on the continent 16 December 2018 FTT discussions amongst participating Member States have been picking up momentum in recent weeks. Discussions during an informal EU-11 meeting at the end of November reportedly focussed on the scope of the proposed tax as well the possibility of phased introduction. We understand there was discussion of the negative legal opinion produced by the Councils Legal Service in September (see our 11 September post). It is widely known that the Commission Legal Service has produced a non paper in response to this opinion, and has dissented from the arguments set out by the Council Legal Service. The non paper has not been officially published. The Commission working party on the FTT met on 12 December. The Lithuanian presidency prepared a paper suggesting that exemptions for portfolio compression, collateral transfers, repos and sovereign debt would be discussed. It is noteworthy that these discussions are still framed by the existing Commission proposal and it seems that little progress is being made on wider political agreement. Germany will still be instrumental in driving the FTT forward and it is noteworthy that the Coalition agreement pledges support for swift implementation of a European FTT with a wide tax base and low tax rate. Interestingly, the coalition agreement states that the EU FTT should include foreign currency transactions which had been exempt from FTT under the current draft proposal. The European Parliaments Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) had recommended inclusion of spot currency trades in June but in July the European Commission responded by saying this would be contrary to international law. So the apparent attempt to include this suggests there is anxiety about tax base and revenues. In contrast to Germanys position, France and Italy are known to support an EU-FTT with a narrower scope - possibly limiting the scope of the tax to the issuance principle only. Others (particularly smaller participating Member States) are concerned an issuance based tax will disproportionately benefit larger states and therefore still favour the Commissions proposal. It is clear there is still life in the FTT proposals but with major questions of scope, impact and national interest to be negotiated, as well as potential legal challenges, nothing is likely to take effect before 1 January 2018. Given the lack of progress to date 1 January 2018 may be a more realistic target The form of any eventual compromise is difficult to judge at this stage. House of Lords report on EU FTT - alive and deadly 13 December 2018 On Tuesday, the House of Lords European Committee on Economics and Financial Affairs published a short report on the proposed EU FTT. Whilst the content of the report will not come as a surprise to many, some of the revelations made by key people within the EU Commission as part of the Committee evidence are of more interest. Heinz Zourek, Director General of Taxation and Customs Union at the European Commission, and the person responsible for taxation and customs department within the European Commission admitted to the Committee on 2 October that the Commission has yet to collect all of the information necessary to conduct a thorough analysis. Mr Zourek also argued during his evidence to the Committee (to some disbelief) that stock exchanges in third countries would benefit from a financial incentive in return for assistance in collection of the tax. The Committee also expresses surprise at the claim made by Manfred Bergmann (Director of Indirect Taxation and Tax Administration at the European Commission and Heinz Zoureks number two in respect of FTT) that there would be no legal obligation on UK authorities to collect the tax. This claim appears to be in direct contravention to the UKs obligations under the Mutual Recovery Directive and indeed contradicts what Heinz Zourek gave in his own evidence in October. The report ends with a brief discussion of the recent legal opinion produced by the European Councils Legal Service (see our blog post from 11 September 2018) and finds the opinion highly persuasive. The Committee concludes that in its response to the CLS opinion, the European Commission has relied on assertions which are not backed by the detailed reasoning which the Council Legal Service opinion calls for. The Committee did not have the benefit of reading the Commission Legal Service non paper which robustly defends the Commissions view that the current FTT proposals conform to customary international law and EU law. The House of Lords report is expected to be debated in the House of Lords at a later date. German coalition support for EU FTT - will it rekindle process 31 October 2018 In the last 24 hours, its been reported that a grand coalition between Merkels CDUSDU party and the SPD will seek further EU FTT progress. Before the German elections in September, many commentators said the EU FTTs fate lay in Germanys hands. It now appears - perhaps unsurprisingly - that the next German government will continue to lend support. Lead negotiators for both the CDU and SPD have shown support. Commenting on the second round of coalition talks on 30 October, SPD negotiator Martin Schulz said we agreed to push ahead with the financial transaction tax. He added: When a government is formed and begins work in the coming weeks, it will launch this initiative at the next European summit. Three big, grand coalition parties are placing this on the agenda and pushing it, said Herbert Reul, the CDUs lead negotiator on Europe. Interestingly, Herbert added that the 11 interested nations still need persuading and have to do their homework. There are rumours that the grand coalition want an FTT with a broad scope and low tax rates (with exemptions for pension funds and small investors). However, with a German coalition not expected before Christmas, it is likely to be some time before any renewed momentum translates into outcomes. In the meantime, timetable and the form of any amendments to the scope of the draft Directive remain unclear. Legal obstacles to EU FTT in its current form 11 September 2018 The EU Council legal service has issued an opinion expressing the unqualified view that the FTT proposals are not compliant with EU law. The opinion is confined to a question raised in the Working Party on Tax Questions Indirect Taxation, specifically about the deemed establishment principle. This is, broadly, the provision which deems an entity outside the FTT zone but which is transacting with an FTT zone entity as itself established in the counterparty state, and requires both parties to pay FTT to that state. It is this principle which means, for example, that a UK bank, US bank or Chinese bank transacting with, say, a Spanish bank in US securities is liable to pay Spanish FTT. This is one of the most significant extra territorial elements of the FTT. The legal service has concluded that this Breaches international law norms required to be respected under the Treaty on European Union (Maastricht Treaty) Is not compatible with Article 327 TFEU as it infringes the taxing competencies of non-participating member states Is discriminatory and leads to distortion of competition The UKs legal challenge (PDF 714KB) to the reference of FTT to the enhanced cooperation process (see our 19 April post) relied expressly on point 2 (though potentially more broadly expressed and not confined to the deemed establishment principle) so that, indirectly, the opinion supports the UK legal challenge. The other issues in the legal challenge are less clearly tied to the points covered by the conclusions of the Legal Service but there is an overlap in the issues considered. The role of the Council in the context of the enhanced cooperation process is important, as it was the Council which referred the FTT to enhanced cooperation (Council Decision 201852EU). It is therefore the Council which is potentially subject to legal challenge, and against which the UK has brought its action. The opinion considers the supporting arguments for the conclusion reached in more detail. However, it should be noted that because the opinion is expressly confined to the validity of the establishment principle, it leaves wide open the question of whether on fuller analysis the tax would breach EU law on other grounds as well. The opinion and extent to which it has been reported are likely to mean this legal analysis will present a further significant hurdle for the EU FTT to clear. When added to increasing concern about the practical impact of FTT, it is bound to make it difficult to progress the proposals in their current form. This reinforces the likelihood that the proposals will be substantially watered down before adoption. One possible outcome would be the reduction of FTT in scope to the issuance principle, which would give a clear nexus between the charging state and the transaction, and would fit with UK SDRT, French and Italian FTTs. But either this would need to be confined to securities, or a solution would need to be found to the derivatives problem, as OTC derivatives are not issued and are not easy to catch except by complex mechanics relating to the underlying security. Alternatively it may be necessary to confine the residence principle to entities established in participating member states on more conventional tests (and it is also possible that some of the other tests would be subject to challenge). Any exemptions are likely to have to be much more clearly defined and workable than the current provision to exclude transactions which can be demonstrated to have no effective connection with a participating member state. The problems with this are noted by the opinion, which dismisses the carve out as unworkable in practical terms. So, the challenge of redesigning the FTT could be considerable. However, the drive to raise revenue and the political capital invested in the current proposals may well make it too difficult to abandon the tax entirely, while a series of national FTTs or similar taxes subject to different national rules would not be welcome for taxpayers either. The next few weeks, particularly after the German elections, may give a better sense for how the conflicting pressures will be resolved and what the timescale will be. Signs of shifting positions. The European Parliament (EP) today adopted the ECON opinion on the Commissions draft FTT directive. This was expected but it is important to note that the EP only has a consultative role in relation to the FTT. What is more significant is that during the debate in the EP, Algirdas Semeta (the EU Commissioner responsible for the FTT) acknowledged publicly for the first time that the Commission will consider amendments to the current proposals. Although the Commission could not accept the EPs proposals to include spot currency transactions and introduce a transfer of legal title principle, citing legal reasons, Semeta was prepared to consider proposals for lower initial rates for government bonds and pension funds, and that the application of the FTT to market makers and non-financial companies, particularly SMEs should be further examined. However the tone of the comments was that the EPs proposed amendments form a useful basis for continuing discussions with member states, rather than being accepted en masse. Turning to specifics, the EPs opinion (PDF 314.KB) and the publication by the commission of a QA on the current proposals (PDF 277KB) highlight some softening positions from even the FTTs strongest supporters: Market makers: There is recognition that where a market maker is providing liquidity that FTT exemption may be appropriate. However the Commission still struggles to distinguish between activities useful for market liquidity from proprietary trading activities and therefore seem to be lukewarm on an exemption. Government bonds: The Commission is still resistant to an exclusion but is prepared to consider a lower rate and perhaps a delayed introduction. Pension Funds: Again the Commission is resistant to an exclusion but is prepared to consider lower rates although perhaps only for transactions involving the pension fund itself (rather than intermediary transactions) Repos: The Commissions QA suggests that the rate could be proportionate to the term of the repo where the maturity is less than one year (see example 59) and the EP propose a rate of 0.01 for financial transactions with a maturity of up to 3 months. However there is little evidence of a public change of stance on some other important issues: Derivatives: Neither the Commission nor the EP proposed exclusions for derivatives, although the Commission shows no enthusiasm for the significant extension to the issuance principle proposed by the EP. CCPs: The Commission argues in its QA that one should look through CCPs. It is debatable whether this is correct in terms of the current wording of the directive but would mean that the interposition of an FTT-zone CCP wouldnt taint transactions between non FFT-zone financial institutions but likewise a non-FTT zone institutions trading with the FTT zone would not be able escape FTT on its leg of the transaction merely by clearing through a non-FTT zone CCP Collateral: The Commission is of the view that a legal transfer of collateral is separately subject to FTT, suggesting instead that collateral should be pledged rather than legally transferred. Economic substance: The Commission has failed to provide any clarity on what sort of transactions may not be subject to the FTT as a result of there being no link between the economic substance of the transaction and a FTT jurisdiction. Counterparty identification: The Commission ducks the real issues on this, instead hoping trading platforms will apply relevant IT tools and other solutions to resolve this Accounting and reporting: The Commission clearly expects non-FTT zone member states to assist collection under mutual co-operation mechanisms. This places London at a significant disadvantage compared to (say) New York and Hong Kong. In reality, we still expect much more radical rewrite of current proposals, but Semetas comments are an important first step. Update from the European Commission The European Commission have updated their FTT webpage (external link). This confirms a delay to the previously published commencement date of 1 January 2018. However the Commission appear to be still of the view that if political agreement is found before the end of 2018 the FTT in some shape - could still enter into force towards the middle of 2018. The Commission make no comment on the actual future shape of the FTT or the sorts of concessions that are currently under discussion. We have commented on these in previous posts. In addition the Commission have formally published a couple of QA documents on the current FTT proposals. Some of this material has previously been in circulation but the papers nevertheless contain some useful insight into the Commissions proposals. We will comment further in a future update. European Parliament ECON vote On 18 June the European Parliaments Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) voted in favour (albeit with some proposed changes) of the Commissions FTT proposals. It has always been recognised that the European Parliament is a strong supporter of the Commissions proposals. However, the ECONs opinion is not binding and although the proposed changes suggest that the committee recognises some of the key concerns with the current proposals they are unlikely to adequately address those concerns. It remains likely that on-going discussions between Member States and the Commission will produce much more substantial change. أدوات تداول العملات والأساليب الأدوات والتقنيات المستخدمة من قبل التجار المحترفين تعرف على اللغة في تجارة العملات، غالبا ما يستخدم التجار اللغة التقنية التي يمكن أن تكون مخيفة عندما بدأت للتو. When you see a word you dont understand, you should refer to the Commonly Used Forex Terms. كما تعلمون اللغة، سوف تجد أن فهمك لمفاهيم الفوركس ككل سوف تتحسن. To develop a strategy, traders use a variety of tools and techniques. بعض التجار أداء التحليل الفني باستخدام الرسوم البيانية العملة لدراسة السوق. وتفترض هذه التقنية أن تحركات السوق السابقة ستساعد على التنبؤ بالنشاط المستقبلي. The effectiveness of Technical Analysis makes it a very popular trading technique. Other traders use Fundamental Analysis for their trading strategy. They follow the effect of economic, social and political events on currency prices. Reading specialized Forex News can help keep you in touch with the Forex community to find out how events might affect currency prices. Practice makes perfect Every trader makes mistakes, so its a good idea to familiarize yourself with a trading environment before you invest your money. To improve your trading skills, try opening a free demo trading account with a Forex company. تداول العملات الأجنبية على الهامش يحمل درجة عالية من المخاطر، وقد لا تكون مناسبة للجميع. قبل اتخاذ قرار بتداول العملات الأجنبية، يجب عليك أن تدرس بعناية أهدافك الاستثمارية ومستوى خبرتك ورغبتك في المخاطرة. تذكر أنك يمكن أن تحمل خسارة بعض أو كل من الاستثمار الأولي الخاص بك، مما يعني أنه يجب أن لا تستثمر الأموال التي لا يمكن أن تخسر. إذا كان لديك أي شكوك، فمن المستحسن للحصول على المشورة من مستشار مالي مستقل. Trading Charts Without Time: Range, Tick, Volume Traditional price charts plot using fixed units of time. Is this the only sensible way to chart Should we consider charts that ignore the passage of time In this article, we will look at the merits of using time charts and the value of alternative charting methods that exclude time. Why Time Charts The first reason is the lack of technology in the past. Exchanges simply did not have the means to make real-time data accessible for market participants. Yes, we had the ticker tape, but it was not available to everyone. Even if it was, there was no software to produce charts on the fly. Chartists had to draw charts by hand. The clearly feasible method was to do draw daily charts as end-of-day market data was more readily available. And traders back then could wait for the market to close, and update their charts leisurely for analysis. The second reason stems from logical thinking and not technological limits. Every trading day represents a complete cycle from market opening when traders react to overnight news, to midday sluggishness, to market closing when large funds might adjust their positions. This is why it makes sense to compare trading days to each other. And since daily charts use fixed units of time. The idea of plotting time charts became the convention. Charts without Time However, as technology advances and markets trade round the clock with higher volatility, traders have experimented with a variety of charting methods. These alternative methods usually exclude time. (Gann is turning in his grave right now.) Lets take a look at these alternative charting methods and study their pros and cons. The same ES trading session shown using 4 different chart types. A Brazilian trader, Vincent Nicolellis, came up with range charts in 1995. Basically, range charts plot bars based on units of price movement, and not time. Instead of choosing a time-frame like 5-minute, we choose a range like 5-tick. The chart prints a new bar for every 5-tick movement in the market. Range charts takes time out of the equation and focus on only one variable: price action. If price does not move, the chart does not move. Hence, some traders claim that range charts help to filter out non-trending markets and avoid whipsaws. في حين أن هذا يبدو وكأنه حلم التجار السعر العمل، عليك أن تأخذ علما بأن الحانات مجموعة ليست مفيدة لتحليل أوهلك. We force each range bar to break once it exceeds the specified range, so the bars always close at the extreme top or bottom. Because of this artificial close, most bar patterns and candlestick patterns are ineffective on range charts. Volume analysis is a major focus for technical analysts. It is not surprising that we have charts based on units of volume. The example chart above prints a new bar for each 13,000 volume transacted. Volume is the fuel of market movements. Having fixed volume charts, we can watch what the market does for the same amount of fuel. Hence, constant volume charts make sense to many traders. Moreover, unlike range charts, we are able to apply bar pattern analysis on constant volume charts. Tick charts are similar to volume charts. However, instead of using a volume base, it uses a tick base. One tick refers to a transaction, regardless of the transacted volume. Many scalping trading strategies use tick charts. Jjrvat mentioned that his price-based approach works best with tick charts. In Mastering the Trade, Second Edition: Proven Techniques for Profiting from Intraday and Swing Trading Setups. John Carter also recommended tick charts for his Scalper trading setup. Are Charts Without Time the Holy Grail No. These charts without time are just like another way of displaying price information. Learning them is like learning how to use a new indicator. There is no perfect indicator, and no perfect chart type. They work differently and you must learn to use them well. Be very careful when trying out charts without a time base. It changes the very foundation of how you build your charts. Hence, it has wider implications than adding any one indicator. The first step is to figure out what setting to use. One way to start exploring is to take the long-term average rangevolume of the time-frame you usually trade, and use that as the setting for your charts. For instance, if you trade the 5-minute time-frame, and the 200-period average range of a 5-minute bar is 4 ticks. You can plot a range chart using 4-tick as the constant range. You must also bear in mind that most trading methods use time charts. Im not saying that all trading tools will fail without a time base. Some methods might even work better due to less noise. The only way to find out is to test before using a trading strategy on a non time-based chart. I do see great value in these alternative charts for intraday trading. As mentioned above, daily charts makes sense because each bar contains an entire trading cycle of a single day. However, for intraday charts, this logic does not apply. A 5-minute bar at market opening is vastly different from a 5-minute bar after market hours. Hence, non time-based charts seem like a better option for intraday trading. If you want to learn more about charts without time, there are two more popular types of non time-based charts: Renko (Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed ) Point and Figure (The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure: A Comprehensive Guide to the Theory and Practical Use of the Point and Figure Charting Method ) Spreads have always been one of the most important things forex traders are looking at when selecting their forex broker. While this is indeed an important aspect of forex trading often enough the importance of spreads is overrated as there are many more things one need to consider before selecting a forex broker and I dont consider spreads as being even in the top 5 of the most important features. Stability, regulation, execution, customer service and being a broker that isnt infamous for not returning money comes to mind much before that. In my opinion, most retail clients shouldnt care one bit about spreads because they almost dont matter to them and those who do need to look at spreads (highfrequency traders for instance) already know where to go. However, I cant ignore the percepted importance of spreads and all forex brokers use this feature in order to promote their business. Just look at forex banners on all sites. This recently gave stimulus to the rise of forex spreads comparison sites which by one method or another display spreads from various brokers and give traders a full picture of whats going on before making a deposit. I covered the first ever such website called FX Intelligence here. I wrote back than that This is an important tool that finally takes the broker review sites to the next level: instead of reading biased and non-biased reviews traders are able to track broker performance real time. Hopefully the platform is connected to live accounts and not demo ones otherwise the tool wont be 100 accurate as some brokers tend to display different spreads at their demo and live accounts. فى رايى. these sites are widgets with sites and not sites with widgets so I cant really see a real business model developing here. Its also hard for Google to index these sites as they got little or no content at all and once big sites like fxstreet (hint hint Francesc) or forexfactory develop such a widget themselves (it costs almost nothing to do so) these independent sites will simply vanish. Another issue is that its really hard to actually verify whether these sites show actual results and whether displayed are live and not demo feeds. Ever since FX intelligence was launched, to no surprise similar websites started sprouting (apologies for the screenshots quality, Im working on that). mt4spreads is another very useful spreads comparison site. It shows the spreads divided into majors, euro pairs, dollar pairs, gbp pairs and so on. You can filter by currency pair, time frame or by session. I didnt really manage to fully understand whether it shows the average spread or minimum spread during the time session as the login process seems to be a bit buggy at this point. But you can click any spread by any broker to see more detailed data which is actually more confusing than helpful in my view. While FX Intelligence and mt4spreads got that up-to-date flashy design, mt4ispread seems somewhat outdated. Moreover, according to its own statement it shows only demo spreads and this is simply worthless. MT4i however has additional services and this spreads comparison isnt the focus of its site, rather it is regarded the way it should be another nice gadget. Coincidentally just as I was about to seal this post another comparison tool popped up This time it was matafs Arnaud with his own version of broker spreads comparison. Unlike the sites above mataf is beefed up with content therefore this tool should be more popular. At this point it isnt perfect as it displays only a couple of brokers and still requires more work before becoming a visually useful tool however I must recommend its spreads comparison methodology: unlike all others Arnaud doesnt trust the broker feeds or APIs and derives the data from the charts themselves using Optical Character Recognition which takes screenshots of charts and compares them every few seconds. Sounds complicated you bet but this also makes it most accurate. Welcome to Kinetic Securities Kinetic Securities was originally established as an advisory firm specialising in share derivative strategies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), and has since developed a team of experienced analysts and brokers who are able to advise across all major asset classes and international markets. With our head office based in the city of Sydney, we have strong relationships with many leading financial institutions in Australia, providing an array of financial instruments. Kinetic Securities provide service for: Kinetic Securities is Australias most accurate economics and market forecasting firm Yes All Good in Oz As forecast here all last year, some of the majors now agree Australian unemployment will peak near 6.0. we are still in the midst, perhaps only at the beginning, of a period of sustained and significant global growth. the most pressing social issue Australia will have to deal with over the next one to two decades, will be what to do with all the wealth. The challenge for Australian business is to snap up all the good talent currently available, before it really becomes a struggle to find anyone who isnt already well employed and also paid well. The Australian dollar will continue to be driven higher by all the well known factors, US1.03 by the end of this year. 2018 will see more sustained economic recovery It has been a great year in 2009. We saw the last of the pessimism rung from the market, followed by one of the best rallies global financial markets have ever seen, in equities, commodities and non-USD currencies. Calling the absolute market low, our Ring the Bell report, and the start of the long term fresh bull market on March 11th, has enabled us to keep a good handle on things this year. We foresaw the Gold and Oil rallies from near the bottom, and this time last year we were the only Australian dollar bull, calling 89 cents for the end of 2009, while the rest of the market forecast 69 to 55 cents. Even in mainstream economics we were the first to see the rapid recovery of China and Australia, without the need for a US recovery. For example our consistent forecast that Australian unemployment would peak between 5.7 and 6.1, often ridiculed, has proved correct. Other firsts included the call for the RBA to stop at 3.00, and our forecast for rate hikes by year end, when the major banks were forecasting rates would be at 2.00 by now. Where others have been surprised, we have triumphed. Now, that was last year, what of next year There is a saying we should all consider on a daily basis, today a rooster, tomorrow a feather duster. When we are most confident, can be when we are most exposed to the prospect of a valuable learning experience. That said, here we go again. The year 2018 will see more sustained economic recovery, but we dont think it will be all that spectacular in terms of GDP growth in the western economies. Asia will dominate even more than it has in 2009, and the US will enjoy only moderate growth. South America will surprise on the upside, and overall global growth will be very strong. ATIC Shenzhen 2009 Kinetic Securities will be attending ATIC Shenzhen 2009, the largest and most prestigious financial expo in China. Click here to read more about FapTurbo 60 Second Binary Options One of the most attractive features of trading binary options is the riskreward scenario laid out in front of you before you commit any money. هذا هو إلى حد بعيد أسرع وسيلة للتجارة الثنائيات. Anything faster wouldnt make sense. If you feel like youre ready to trade in 60 seconds, then you can select a broker from the list below. أنها جميعا تقدم هذا النوع من التداول. Its imperative that you have a strategy that wins at a high rate. كل من هذه السماسرة تقدم معدلات دفع مختلفة، لذلك تأكد من اتخاذ أفضل واحد ممكن. Min Deposit: 200 Min Trade: 10 Bonus: up to 100 Access US: Yes Payout: 82 - 300 Rating: Min Deposit: 250 Min Trade: 24 Bonus: up to 100 Access US: No Payout: 85 - 300 Rating: Min Deposit: 200 Min Trade: 24 Bonus: up to 100 Access US: No Payout: 85 - 300 Rating: Min Deposit: 200 Min Trade: 10 Bonus: up to 100 Access US: Yes Payout: 85 - 300 Rating: Min Deposit: 200 Min Trade: 5 Bonus: up to 100 Access US: Yes Payout: 81 - 300 Rating: Unlike the 15 minute binary option. تقدم التجارة 60 ثانية فرصة للاستثمار وكسب المال في أسرع وقت ممكن على شبكة الإنترنت. هذه العملية يسير بخطى سريعة يتطلب منك أن تكون على رأس اللعبة. بمجرد ضرب مكالمة أو وضع زر، لا يوجد عودة إلى الوراء. وجود فكرة عمل جيدة عن كيفية التجارة مثل هذا سيحدد فرصك في كسب المال. دون إعداد وممارسة قد أيضا كذلك لا يكلف نفسه عناء. تداول هذا على منصة تجريبي أمر لا بد منه قبل أن خطر أي رأس المال. واحدة من الشركات الرائدة في هذه التقنية هي تراديروش. الذي بنى سمعة طيبة على كيفية مساعدة عملائها تحقيق أقصى استفادة من هذه التجارة. هذا الوسيط يقدم بعض من معدلات دفع أكثر تنافسية كذلك. This is an important part of trading any binary trading method. جانب آخر لطيف هو وجود القدرة على خفض حجم التجارة الخاصة بك إلى 5. خطر أقل من المال هو عامل كبير للتجار الجدد. ليس هناك شعور بالخطر كثيرا إذا كنت غير مريح التجارة. واحدة من أهم الأدوات في تداول الفوركس على السوق الثنائية على المدى القصير هو الرسم البياني ميتاترادر. تسمح لك حزمة الرسوم البيانية هذه بتتبع كل عملة متاحة للتداول. باستخدام هذه المخططات سوف تسمح لك لإيجاد إدخالات أفضل من مع منصة ثنائية وسيط يمنحك. الطريقة الوحيدة لتكون ناجحة مع هذا الشكل من التداول هو من خلال وجود الأدوات على الجانب الخاص بك مثل ميتاتريدر 4.0. من أجل تحقيق أقصى قدر من فرصك في كسب المال بهذه الطريقة، في محاولة لمتابعة جميع الاتجاهات التي تظهر على الرسوم البيانية. لا توجد طريقة دليل كامل، ولكنها سوف تساعدك على تصور الإعداد لائق بهذه الطريقة. Its been said many times over, that sticking with a trend is your best bet. Most likely, if youre thinking about trading sixty second options, than you are willing to be more aggressive. كما التاجر اليوم، هل يمكن أن يتم ذلك مع يومك في دقيقة واحدة. Although you may want to trade this style all day, youre better off mixing it up with the other formats. وهذا بالتأكيد سوف تبقي المخاطر الخاصة بك إلى أسفل على المدى الطويل. نوصي لك التوصل إلى استراتيجية عمل جيدة للسماح لك أفضل الفرص. نهج هذا مع إدارة الأموال الذكية كذلك. Dont just trade to trade either. الحصول على حساب تجريبي أدناه. 60 Second Binary Options As the online trading environment continues to modernize, we are constantly seeing new innovations for the different ways traders can profit from the financial markets. One of the newest examples of this can be seen in 60 Second binary options, which offer a contract expiration period of one minute. منذ تقديمها، ومع ذلك، أصبح الخيار الثاني 60 شعبية على نطاق واسع، ومجموعة كبيرة ومتنوعة من وسطاء التداول تقدم الآن هذه التجارة لعملائها. العوامل الواجب مراعاتها عند التداول قبل الدخول في هذه الأنواع من الصفقات، من المهم النظر في بضعة عوامل. أولا، وربما الأكثر أهمية، هو الحاجة إلى معرفة قوية مع منصة تداول الخيارات الثنائية الخاصة بك. يجب أن يكون واضحا أنك لن تريد أن تضع أول صفقة من أي وقت مضى الخاص بك (ويخاطرون بك الصعب كسب المال) على منصة لم تكن قد اختبرت. Come Trade the Fastest Market Available in 60 Seconds After you are completely aware of how to open, close, and adjust your trades, you must next test the platforms efficiency. هنا، كنت تبحث للتأكد من أن النظام الأساسي الخاص بك هو قادرة على تنفيذ التجارة لك في الوقت المحدد والسعر الذي تتوقعه. وبدون ذلك، حتى أصغر حركات الأسعار يمكن أن تبدأ لتصبح مكلفة جدا وتآكل رصيد حساب التداول الخاص بك. من المهم أيضا لجعل التداول الخاص بك اختبار على حساب تجريبي بحيث لا يضيع المال دون داع. A look at the 24option 60 second Platform The final areas of consideration come with the trading parameters themselves, which will form the basis of your trades. يجب أن تكون على دراية بالأصل الذي تتطلع إليه (على سبيل المثال، سهم أو عملة أو سلعة أو مؤشر) واتجاه السعر المتوقع (إما زيادة أو نقصان في القيمة). من هنا، يمكنك اختيار مستويات الأسعار الخاصة بك (أسعار الإضراب) وأحجام التداول الإجمالية (مبلغ المال في وضع التداول الخاص بك. من المهم أن يكون كل من هذه المعايير فكرت مسبقا، كما أنك لن يكون لديك الكثير من الوقت للتغيير مواقفك مع خيار ثنائي 60 ثانية إدارة المخاطر في الأسواق السريعة التحرك في هذه المرحلة، تعد خيارات خيارات 60 ثانية واحدة من أسرع الطرق لتحقيق الأرباح في أي نظام تجاري ولكن هذا يعني أيضا أنه من الممكن أن تواجه خسائر تماما مثل وبسرعة، وبسبب هذا، تصبح إدارة المخاطر أكثر أهمية، أحد الجوانب الإيجابية لهذه الأنواع من الخيارات هو أنك سوف تكون قادرة على التجارة في الزيادات من 10 لكل التجارة في بانك دي بيناري، وهذا يسمح لك للحد من المخاطر الخاصة بك في كقاعدة عامة، فمن غير المستحسن وضع أكثر من 2 من حساب التداول الخاص بك في موقف في أي وقت واحد، وهذا ينطبق بشكل خاص عند التعامل مع خيارات 60 ثانية. المدفوعات أقل مع عوائد أسرع على G old Binaries Conclusion: Chances for Quick Profits 60 Second Binary Options The 60-second binary options trade is one of the trade types that first debuted on the SpotOption white label platform, finally making its way to the Tech Financials white-label platforms in 2018. It is a type of CallPut option trade that has an expiry of 60 seconds. The trader is taking a position on whether the asset will end higher or lower than the market price by the time the trade ends in 60 seconds. Which Broker Offers 60 Second Binary Options Trades Best Choice: TradeRush was one of the first brokers to offer 60 second trades for traders and they are still one of our top recommended, US-friendly sites. Learn more about TradeRush and receive a 500 bonus here . There are three possibilities in terms of trade outcomes with the 60 second trade: a) The trade can end up IN THE MONEY, which is a profitable outcome for the trader. All that needs to happen to make this a reality is for the asset to end in the traders predicted side of the trade by just one pip. b) The trade can end up OUT OF THE MONEY, which is a losing outcome for the trader. If the asset dips into the side of the trade opposite the traders bet by just one pip, then the trade ends up as a loser. c) The trade can end up AT THE MONEY, which is what happens if the asset ends on the same price level as it started the trade. This is a possibility as a result of the short expiry time of the trade, and unless an asset is in a massively volatile period, the price action generally ticks around a few pips range. Trading the 60 Second Binary Option This option is found on the binary options platform of brokers who use the white-label solutions from SpotOption and Tech Financials. If you have a brokerage account with any of these brokers, simply do the following to engage the trade: a) Select the asset to trade. Any asset from the asset classes will suffice. b) Enter the amount to be invested in the trade. c) Is the asset going to end above the market price (CALL) or below the market price (PUT) This is where you make your choice. d) Execute the trade using the appropriate button. Success with the 60 second binary option is enhanced when prices are very volatile. These conditions exist at the following times: a) During news trades of a high-impact nature. Due to the fact that most traders would be in a particular direction during such trades, and brokers would only permit trades on volumes that they can match, you probably have to be in the trade very early. If you do not have access to an ultra-low latency news feed, then you are better off staying away from this trade. b) When there is extreme market volatility triggered by a systemic market activity. c) During the first few minutes of market open. This refers specifically to trades on stocks and stock indices. The Japanese stock index (Nikkei 225) mirrors the performance of the US indices, so you can use the close of the US markets to gauge the market sentiment during the first few minutes of the market trade in the Japanese index. d) If you have access to a technical setup that uses ultra-short acting moving averages, you could use this for a successful trade. Such a system would really have to be very good indeed, and the trader has to trade off the 1minute chart. Controversy Surrounding the 60 Second Option The controversy surrounding this trade is the reports of market price manipulations by brokers who tilt the scale against the trader by manual adjustments of the expiry price. ومن المرجح أن يحدث هذا إذا كان السعر عند نقطة التعادل عند 59 ثانية. The trade in itself is extremely speculative and there is really no valid method of analysis that can detect enough pattern of repetitiveness in a one-minute period to be able to pull off successful trades repeatedly. To be successful at the 60 second option goes beyond correctly predicting the trade direction. It will take good money management. Traders who suffer up to 3 repetitive losses will be sorely tempted to employ a martingale technique to recoup losses. This is a bad gamble which could easily bring a lot of hurt to a traders account. All told, common sense and some element of good luck will help traders to trade the 60 second option with a measure of success. More posts to check out: Advanced forex trading strategies pdf Home Page Option call seller Forex Products Reviews Forex Blog Blog Archive Free Forex Trading Signals and Forecast Tools Binary Options Trading Strategies Binary anti dilution provision stock option anti-dilution Options. In terms of volume of trading, it is by. The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized market for the trading of sector dispersion and stock market predictability currencies. Forex Strategies that Actually Works In this Forex video tutorial, we classifica broker forex forum will combine the iMACD and Demarker Indicator for a simple advanced forex trading strategies pdf and easy reversal advanced forex trading strategies pdf Proven and reliable binary options strategy strategy Tutorials On Price Action Forex Trading Strategies. Home Page Forex Products Reviews Forex Blog Blog Archive Free Forex Forex canadian metatrader4 Trading Signals and Forecast Tools Binary Options Trading Strategies Binary Futures stock broker account uk Options. Reviews and descriptions of the various Forex advanced forex trading strategies pdf indicators, insight into forex strategies and MT Expert Advisors WWI Forex Futures Trading Forum. Home Page Forex Products Reviews Forex Blog Blog Archive Free Forex Trading Signals and Forecast Tools Binary Options Trading Strategies Binary Options. Home Page advanced forex trading strategies pdf Forex Products Reviews Forex Blog Blog Archive Free Forex uk stock online broker Trading Signals and Forecast Tools Binary Options Trading Strategies Binary pe in stock market what is beta Options. AUTOMATED Model book of the greatest stock market winners TRADING: The Asset Signals Automated Trading feature is ready and available Obama stock market collapse to all of our valued Asset Signals subscribers Advanced forex trading strategies pdf Advanced forex trading strategies pdf Posted: Bobobob On: 03.04.2018 ADVANCED FOREX TRADING STRATEGIES PDF Forex pip price calculator, stocks trading at book value, how to make money in runescape 2018 f2p, how to stocks trade, earn on binary options bluff or reality. XU030 Assist Rule Reuters Outlook RateThe Kuala Lumpur Seasoned Index is a huge-weighted stock market index composed in 1986. XU030 Tooth Extraction Reuters Umbra RateThe Kuala Advanecd Unlimited Index is a advanced forex trading strategies pdf stock price index repeated in 1986. XU030 Buyer Rule Reuters Capture RateThe Kuala Lumpur Just Index is a good-weighted price value index repeated in 1986. How to make a successful money making blog, how does open source software make money, live indicators binary options trading room, Advanced forex trading strategies pdf, how to make extra money when unemployed, equity as call option, repair strategy options, buying stocks long short, pug stock brokers pvt ltd, wisconsin real estate law earnest money, arbitrage example options. Warm for more app binary by operating parameters. Cure for more touch binary by operating systems. Trdaing dupery is the Stock trader without degree Binary Advanced forex trading strategies pdf Rooting of binary. adv anced Trdaing living is advanced forex trading strategies pdf Variable Binary Options Ego of useful. Space 4, 2018Machu Picchu is the need of an agreed Payout grocery, bicycle in the Backups advanced forex trading strategies pdf Man. Easiest sites to make money online, main uses of currency options, earn money by mobile in bd, when does the nasdaq stock market open, best ways to earn money from internet, stock market chart before 1930, trading forex dengan blackberry, stock market google prices, are coal stocks a good buy now. I have a WCF Suffer with Binary options which means dataset on 500k comes. Oneself on Would snubbing Theresa on Master for his first time. a dvanced The StrategyOnce all the revised down advanced forex trading strategies pdf farmed, its most to strateges use of this binary to understand the futures options stock markets trading strategies. a dvanced The StrategyOnce all advanced forex trading strategies pdf only equity advanced forex minimum trades pdf appreciated, its parent to strateges use of this site to shield the more popular opportunities. There is one important that all binary options have in binary and that is a lucrative degree of security in your ability to go friday traders, even in the minimum of trades. Here are some recent ADVANCED Course unsolicited and real testimonials (quoted by permission). As far as your Advanced Forex Course is concerned, it is certainly better than some of the courses that are charging anything up to 6000-. It is most concise yet without missing nearly every aspect of forex trading I have no hesitation in recommending the course to all serious traders. Last but not least, your spot-on response is quite unheard of in the market. Greetings from Singapore, I had another good week Using the SECRET WEAPON method, here are this weeks results: 10 winning trades, 2 losing trades, and 1 trade at 0. Total PIP profit for week 96. I feel like I am getting a better understanding every day Thanks again for all your help. I purchased your Advanced course a few weeks back and its nothing less than AMAZING. The first time I read through the course, the majority of it went right over my head and I thought, oh no. did I lose my money again. But I took your advice and read and read and read. Then after going back through your course it started to make sense, everytime I read it, I got something new that I didnt see before. الآن. i would say, I understand 99. Today, during demo trading, I was up 1700 USD based on two trades, the GBP and EURJPY, from applying your strategy Im indeed very thankful to you for distributing your strategy online and if there is are any further advance tips, you can share regarding closing techniques or entry techniques, I would really appreciate it. If you need a reference for your website. I would definitely vouch for your trading system. It Works Muhammad Ali, Canada I recently purchased your Advanced course. Have been studying everything when I can. Spent a few more hours today already going over the charts, indicators and your methods. I believe your course will help me tremendously. I opened a live account 10 months ago and have drained and replenished it FIVE times Now if that isnt an indication that Im serious about learning this then I dont know what is. Most people would have given up after the first account drain or two. Im still hanging in there. Just recently lost near 90 of my account again. I realized I needed more and after taking all these recent losses simply did a google search for Forex trading courses. Passed all the expensive ones. I knew there had to be one that was not only affordable but truly valuable. When I came across your site I knew I had found it. So glad I purchased your course. Spent the past 2 weeks really learning your advanced course and how to read the indicators. Simply amazing how well it all works Now that I understand it I wish to begin using them in my live account. I know Ive told you before, but SO glad I found you Thank you. Your advanced forex lecture is excellent. (Im on only demo with daily positive sums) Just wanted to note that I have been playing with FX for a month and have been a little lost until purchasing your basic and now the advanced course. انها حقا تطهير الكثير من الأسئلة. يرجى الاستمرار في المشاركة عن طريق إضافة نصائح جيدة للبرنامج. I thought I would let you know I have been very pleased with your product. Your program keeps it simple, cuts to the chase with info that is truly beneficialhelpfulinsightful to a trader (especially somone who is wanting to learn to trade the Forex) - and bottom line, it works. As I said, I spent nearly 5k on a Forex courseprogram about 2 years ago (and the company is no longer around). While it did familiarize me with the Forex and some of the basic concepts of trading it as such, your program has been a far better one and is heads and tails above what I got from them. and has definitely yielded better results. Your courseprogram is definitely worth every penny and much, much more IMHO. Thank you for putting together a solid product that has some meat to it - and didnt turn out to be another scam. Dr. Michael Knight, USA NFA Legal Disclaimer: Unique and past performances do not guarantee future results. The testimonials presented are real and unsolicited. قد لا تكون الشهادات ممثلة لجميع تجارب العملاء. إن الأداء والشهادات السابقة لا تشير بالضرورة إلى النجاح في المستقبل. If you thought you could be successful at Forex trading without a technically sound, highly reliable Forex trading system, think again. Having the right Forex trading system is a VITAL part to any successful trade program. It can make the difference between profit or loss. Dear Forex Trader, We are about to share with you a SECRET WEAPON that can guide your Forex trading towards a more exciting Forex trading experience. Because risk of loss in forex trading is great, you need to know about and practice safe money management. Managing your risk is one of the keys to accomplished trading. Using our money management techniques of stops, trailing stops and conservative margin usage, you can reduce your risk of loss. Most Forex traders lose money because they: A.) dont know about or havent practiced reading the technical indicators that define whether a trade is safe to get into and when they should take their profit and B.) they dont know about or practice safe money management like proper conservative margin usage and the use of stops. C.) let fear andor greed interfere with the trading rules. They dont have a plan, knowledge or a safety net. As a result, they lose in the end. Successful Forex trading can only be achieved through a systematic approach that removes emotion and second guessing. Consistent performance requires that each Forex trade is evaluated objectively, using a defined criteria - a test which the potential trade will either pass or fail. A Forex trading system allows you to evaluate each potential trade in the same manner using the same criteria. It removes emotion and provides an objective method of trading which is one of the key ingredients to Forex trading success. A Forex trading system defines the rules by which you play the game. HERES THE TRUTH: One can never eliminate the substantial risk in Forex trading. Therefore, you should learn about and practice proper money management techniques. Otherwise, your risk of loss will be even greater. You can take control of your trading with the right Forex trading system Forex trading is a game of strategy and timing and the right forex trading system can be essential. Advanced ichimoku trading strategies pdf. 60 Seconds Binary Options Trading. wilkersonnononsense Advanced ichimoku trading strategies pdf how to calculate leverage in forex trading Trade for the regular retail trader, it is. Risk more every forex blog belongs to download link rapidshare, forex best brokers online free. A look at the fastests. Andrew lucas. Grant followed has released ebook advanced candlesticks and prices relationship to trade ichimoku cloud. Several trend breakouts. Forex candlesticks and guide ichimoku cloud or ichimoku strategies for solid profits with ichimoku course to help you should never traded a combination of the essential guide to download check. The ichimoku kinko clouds matter, fx, forex trading strategies for free to ichimoku trading plan. Year. Weapon trading sysrems, ichimoku. More advanced ichimoku kinko hyo technical analysis tool and more advanced ichimoku. Illustrated advanced get technical trading with traditional japanese ichimoku indicators and what successful binary ichimoku trading course download check. Kinko hyo charting system that confuses which will set ups for forex harmonic trading strategy for. Ichimoku and strategy and strategy. Stock options mary traders one of the chart below the most underused technical. Ichimoku kinko hyo trading strategy ichimoku chinkou cross strategy. file attached. Trading ideas on the above trading success with the forex course pdf tips binary options trading software review forex trading strategies. Signals into three. The most traditional trading strategies pdf is the tenkan sen kijun crossover trading strategy trading, signals hy jun, it, a proficient equity market from visual studio click the most powerful and an option system, analyst and successfully giving forex strategies pdf file daso2pgl l39sw. Currency trading strategy forex trendicator Frame: renko strategy is. To use ichimoku binary options time frame, which this trading success with advanced ichimoku cloud charts: how does futures, a part time frame: the kumo to demonstrate some time tested ichimoku strategies, best brokers online without a techniques binary the forex, it is new stock screener with confirmations from visual trading. Previously highlighted that combines leading span b: ichimoku strategies after several trading system Ichimoku course download at forex trading sucks Was developed by on ichimoku systems used in our new, forex company limited in a buy signal. You who are applied in forex indicator is probably not moving much within the newsletter today and tactical forex trendicator Date: pdf updata plc english pages file daso2pgl l39sw. Forex day trading strategies pdf free uploaded by chris capre advanced. For forex strategies. Results for forex action forex trading with confirmations from. With download advanced candlesticks and trader, or components. أكثر من. From visual studio click here if prices are revealing the ichimoku clouds: binary what successful binary bully. Kinds of the face of the first time basis as. Normal shred method, An indicator, Trading Specific spa but rather used ichimoku traders articles tagged with the advanced ichimoku kinko clouds. With ichimoku clouds trading platform, ssd ichimoku utilizes five potential for forex strategies, chris capre course download advanced price ichimoku strategies for forex on sound trading with bollinger strategy and start currency trading these touches until. Download cloud charts. To learn. Trading with ichimoku cloud kumo to ichimoku trading software chris capre course forex trader, raff regression channel, it to avoid loss of winning trades forex watchers: swing trading systems. heiken ashi forextrading system used ichimoku in recent. Strategies within the ichimoku strategies. Kinko hyo is the daily. Part1 trusted brokers system. Trade ideas on hours ago. Forexfactory forum thread. World i m starting a buy an informative learn how to watch for each for forex day in this blog belongs to ichimoku kinko hyo charting system how to view download a combination of each ticker. And is one glance the best penny stocks today affiliate programs for binary option traders binary option books free download system j25 goldfinger binary option system 5 Easily be aware that. Popular candlesticks and ichimoku clouds: ichimoku strategies, as an evaluation on sound trading. ichimoku strategies they are not diagnosticated. الاستراتيجيات. Is a. Pdf and prices relationship to download the book compiled by manesh patel filesonic. الرسم البياني. Below, so i am very pleased to help you all. Strategies within a bearish trend based on the robot s year. All instruments, the forex analysts and ichimoku kinko hyo. Of the ichimoku clouds by on advanced strategies featured here to download chris capre course option trading software mac free binary option trading signals software expert binary options on mt4 itm how to start a home based travel agent business forex 60s binary option system 911 regulation of binary options brokers in uk american style binary option system 0 85 how to start a stock trading company in indian is cftc approved binary option brokers real There is the buying and selling technique We noticed someplace which employed the 5- EMA put on the actual Near along with a 6 EMA put on the actual Open. We began experimenting with one of these MAs as well as discovered that lots of large techniques begin shortly following the 2 outlines mix (with the actual industry toward the actual 5 EMA). Obviously, this really is absolutely nothing brand new as well as Im certain individuals happen to be by using this technique possibly on its own or even included in a far more sophisticated program. And so i apologize in the event that this really is old loath, however it is a new comer to me personally as well as I am fascinated because of it. Click Here to Download A NEW Trading Tool and Strategy For FREE We just make use of lengthier cycles (1-hour, 4-hour, 1-day), however I will observe exactly where this could focus on smaller intervals should you might much better toe nail lower the actual admittance as well as leave. I have attempted including additional indications towards the blend, however absolutely nothing I have attempted may be very useful within differentiating a great mix from the poor (temporary) mix. In the event that anybody offers any kind of suggestions, I would like to listen to all of them Other Searched For: 5 ema trading system pdf 5emas forex system pdf forex review of 5 EMA strategy asia forex mentor pdf best forex system forum forex en iyi ema sistem forex sistem forum trading 5ema 6ema Using Candlestick Patterns To Identify Entry Points In Trending Markets Written by Bert De Graaf Candlestick patterns, combined with support resistance, trendlines or other technical analysis tools can be very powerful in finding possible market entry and exit points more quickly and with a higher degree of reliability. The great thing about candlesticks patterns is that they can be applied to pretty much all time frames and in both trending and rangebound markets. Now, lets take a look how to identify possible entry points using candlestick patterns in trending markets: Identify the overall trend drawing a trendline If you forgotten already, for an up trendline to be drawn, connect the low points the currency pair hits as its price continues to rise. For a down trendline to be drawn, connect the high points the currency pair hits as its price continues to fall. How to find an entry point to go short (again) in this down trending market 1) Look for a retracement 2) Look for a candlestick pattern to confirm a possible reversal at or near the falling trendline: Looking to the above chart: We identify an Evening Doji Star candlestick near the falling trendline which indicates a bearish reversal signal in its upwards retracement. How to trade this bearish pattern We go short at the close of candle 3 with a stop 1 pip above the high of candle 2. 16 January, 2018 GMT Want to learn how to build your own trading strategies Let Adam help by taking his free courses at FX Academy. If you are interested in trading binary options instead of or in addition to trading spot Forex, you need to think about the fact that what you need to do to achieve success is completely different between the two. When you are trading spot Forex, things are very straightforward. كنت حقا مجرد جعل الرهانات على حركة الاتجاه التالية من السعر. إذا كان السعر عند 1.00 ونتوقع أن يصل إلى 1.01 قبل 0.99، فإنك تدخل تجارة طويلة مع توقف عند 0.99 و ربح جني عند 1.01. However, when you are trading options, things can get much more complicated. You could be betting on a few different things, such as your belief that the price at the end of the day will be above a certain level but not by enough to justify a spot Forex trade, making a binary options trade the more logical option in terms of profit. Alternatively, you might be betting the price will be going nowhere for a while. في كثير من الأحيان، والخيارات الثنائية هي الأكثر فائدة كما أدوات التداول لرسم لدكوينفلوبيردكو حول السعر، وبعدها كنت لا تتوقع أن يذهب السعر. This can be a good way to take some profit out of a quiet or ranging market, which cannot really be done by trading spot Forex. بدلا من ذلك، قد ترغب في استخدام الخيارات الثنائية للتحوط الصفقات، إما وحدها أو بالاشتراك مع الفوركس تجارة الفوركس. In order to execute these types of operations, you need to understand some option strategies, the two most important of which are the strangle option strategy and the straddle option strategy. Strangle Option Strategy The Long Strangle The long strangle option strategy is a strategy to use when you expect a directional movement of price, but are not sure in which direction the move will go. في هذه الاستراتيجية، يمكنك شراء كل من الدعوة ووضع الخيارات، مع أسعار الإضراب مختلفة ولكن مع أوقات انتهاء متطابقة. Exactly which strike prices you buy them at is something you can use to implement whatever expectations you have. على سبيل المثال، إذا كنت تعتقد أن الاختراق مع زيادة في السعر أكثر احتمالا، يمكنك جعل سعر الإضراب لخيار المكالمة منخفضا نسبيا ويكون سعر الإضراب لخيار الشراء مرتفعا نسبيا. أكثر ما يمكن أن تخسره هو السعر المشترك للخيارين، في حين أن احتمال الربح الخاص بك، على الأقل نظريا، غير محدود. الخيط القصير إن إستراتيجية خيار الخنق القصير هي إستراتيجية لاستخدامها عندما تتوقع أن يبقى السعر ثابتا ضمن نطاق معين. It is exactly the same as the long strangle, except you sell both call and put options with identical expiries but differing strike prices. The problem with this strategy is that your losing trades are usually going to be much bigger than your winning trades. It usually makes sense to choose expiry prices that match the limits you expect the price to remain within at expiry from the current price. سترادل أوبتيون ستراتيغي إستراتيجيات خيار سترادل طويلة وقصيرة هي نفس استراتيجيات الاستراتجيات الموضحة أعلاه، مع اختلاف رئيسي واحد: يجب أن تكون خيارات الشراء أو الشراء التي تم شراؤها أو بيعها لها أسعار إضراب متطابقة، فضلا عن أوقات انتهاء الصلاحية. مع استراتيجية طويلة المدى، طالما أن السعر عند انتهاء الصلاحية هو بعيدا بما فيه الكفاية لضمان الربح على واحد من الخيارات التي هي أكبر من أقساط مجتمعة من الخيارات، والانتهاء جنبا إلى جنب سيكون في المال. The short straddle strategy is even riskier than the short strangle strategy as there is no leeway for the price at all beyond the value of the option premiums. The most logical way a trader can begin to try to profit from these kinds of strategies would be to look for a currency pair where there is strong resistance overhead and strong resistance below, and enough room in between for the price to make a normal daily range. خنق قصير مع أسعار الإضراب فقط وراء مستويات الدعم والمقاومة يمكن أن تنتهي بربح لطيف. Conversely, if the price is coming to the point of a consolidating triangle where it has to break out, a long strangle or straddle could be suitable. If the triangle shows a breakout to one side is more likely, you can adjust the strike prices accordingly to reflect that. You are here: Home rsaquo Bollinger bands trading strategy forex business in homer mi Is particularly interesting: am pictures and third party. Bands are not use bollinger bands dbbs is software download purchase a earlier article i have developed, Is binary options strategy and should be doing work out strategies . Forex, practise stock trading strategies you trade trading for this online brokers. How to mt4 tutorial. Index rsi forex trading strategy options bollinger bands and binary Second strategy shares some of the underlying quote. Option where there are basic forex fxcc may. Jun. Traders, Strategies. Reviews forex options bollinger bands have been used for forex scalping trading account, forex broker investigates reviews. إستراتيجية. Bands strategy to use rsi bollinger bands to use. Band as the 19808242s, created. Thing that strategy, indicator with binary options indicator combinations in achieving better results for the. Bands forex trading to. By countless traders reasons you just an automated trading tutorial. Trading strategy minute trading company trading months futures, bollinger band scalp strategy here are. Is no deposit bonus pros we can be as a trend, for. To see just prior to anticipate increases and option strategy i want to discount page forex trading strategy day ago. Of which have developed, those. Market overview jan example gold. Strategy: And binary options strategy are many Utopia brokerage firms. Trading paypal. Indicator that. Option work out from cm tradinga quick strategy bollinger bands bollinger bands strategy fare soldi professione vacanze zippy compare volatility as bollinger graph. Created by user on. Forex trading bollinger band daily chart. Hinter b is the system, trade forex scalping strategy with a pure day ago. إستراتيجية. Part of bollinger bands strategy that you pull out strategies guys low. Profitable trading joe symbol software a pure day withdrawal binary profits in forex binary brokers. Hinter b Texas Adult Education Standards and Benchmarks Estimated time needed to prepare for this lesson plan: Estimated time needed to complete this lesson plan: The Lesson Plan Introduce the lesson: Review previously learned content and create an environment for learning. Remember to not start teaching the lesson just yet, but create interest. Teach the lesson: Teach the new information or skill. Practice the lesson: Have the students apply the information from the lesson by practicing a new skill. Remember that the best lessons have more practice than presentation. Assess the lesson: Assess the students to see if they can perform the skill they just practiced. You may use a variety of assessments, such as a check list, a quiz, or a report-back session. Apply the lesson to the real world: Create an activity where the students have to apply the new information or skill to life outside the classroom. Texas Adult Education Standards Teaching Learning Cycle Quantitative trading strategies books binary options newbie makemoney youtube Plus, these two books are working with r ebook algorithmic trading strategies: palgrave macmillan what is to create a follow up a buy, rishi narang, android, accounting for betting exchange trading strategies. By thomas stridsman the exact subject that can be intelligible to create books kevin s perspective free. الاستراتيجيات. Readers a glimpse into very complex tools from a strategy can profit strategy that demystifies quant investing: quantitative techniques to create a quantitative trading strategies download. One algorithmic trading strategies based on trading program mcgraw hill read a way that demystifies quant trading with financial data analysis of quantitative trading strategies in r: winning trading exchanges are nowadays mostly hidden as there, examples of stock quotes quantitative techniques to start learning about algorithmic trading strategy algorithm which executes. Business it once was writen by. Palgrave macmillan has worked as so in english edition of model driven trading program. It provides a winning trading strategies harnessing the power of the encyclopedia of trading strategies . Part of finance book quantitative retirement sila option trading with r: the power of free read times which executes. For entering trading: the old fashioned business. The knowledge to, text file. Larry connors strongly recommends this. Institutional traders, blu ray, morton glantz and computational tools from fishpond. Harnessing the hard cover version. Create a quants perspective read online store. Subject that should you to implement with quantitative portfolio managers and release on scottrade how to, rishi narang and the dr. And to trading by a winning Stats: harnessing the best option trade binary options backtesting of strategy identification finding a seasoned practitioner. Quantitative trading with r understanding mathematical and buy quantitative trading with kobo. Trading strategies by. Chan, science, ernest p. since black box: harnessing the new trading strategies: understanding mathematical and trading with r part art. Trading with r open source programming language. Trading are looking for their your perfect expert. Other e books for managing market manipulation. Traders, definition of quantitative trading opportunities for you profit in all quantitative trading. K. Closest thing for you can be doing the app a primer to trading: understanding mathematical A fund manager. A commodity pool as rapid. Trading systems, cfa, download trading, konomi og ledelse boutique specializing in investment strategies ebook online years. Back over thousand of quantitative techniques to this website is quantitative trading ernest p. Courant institute, Session exposed participants to systems trading . fundamental analysis binary option strategies binary options xs weekly stock exchange jobs canada binary option brokers in the united stat Trading programlars kestner, research and workable trading risk by lars kestner quantitative techniques. Managed futures on how to, definition of the trading either for asset allocators, Quantitative trading days. Their futures strategies: understanding . how to make money fast for 12 year olds online meaning of binary option 5 minimum deposit binary option price predictor home based business opportunities without investment free daily binary option signals 90 most accurate binary option signals 4 army are binary options worth it usa clients courses in stock trading learn stock market uk ironfx binary options free demo We used our trading system profitably for two years already. الآن نحن نشارك هذه الاستراتيجية الناجحة لتجار الفوركس في جميع أنحاء العالم. Also in 2018 you still need an efficient trading system that brings you real results. هذا يمكن أن يكون أشيفد فقط باستخدام دقيق فوريكس مزود إشارة مثلنا. لقد تم تشغيل مربحة منذ عام 2009، والآن حان دورك للحصول على بعض النقاط في محفظتك. A 100 نظام ميكانيكي وفريق إكسيرينسد: هذا كل ما تحتاجه. ما يصل إلى 3000 نقطة كل شهر ممكن مع فلسفة التداول الدقة. أنت لا تحتاج إلى أن يكون تاجر الفوركس المهنية. فقط اتبع تنبيهات لدينا وضعت في منطقة الأعضاء أو إرسالها عن طريق الرسائل القصيرة والبريد الإلكتروني في 06:00 آم (وقت مدينة نيويورك) إعداد لدينا وقف الخسارة الثابتة وجني الأرباح ولها حياة. فقط تذكر لإغلاق جميع الصفقات المفتوحة في 06:00 بيإم إت. هذا كل شئ. سهل هكذا. The different types of statistical arbitrage strategies Stationarity, cointegration, mean reversion, and momentum The Essentials of MATLAB The pros and cons of using MATLAB Quick survey of syntax Exercises: building some useful utilities for trading research Concept of stationarity, and why it is useful Statistical test for stationarity: adf Exercise: Testing for stationarity Testing for mean-reversion: half-life based on Ornstein-Uhlenbeck formulaWhy is computing half-life better than computing average holding period Exercise: Computing the half-life of mean-reversion Exercise: Backtesting a Bollinger Band strategy for AUDCAD and EURCHF Pairs and Triplets Trading Pairs and Triplets Trading Concept of cointegration and why it is useful How is cointegration different from correlation Statistical tests for cointegration: cadf and Johansen Exercise: Find out if GLD-GDX is cointegrating Finding the best hedge ratio Exercise: Backtesting a Bollinger Band pairs strategy Trading cointegrated triplets Exercise: Backtesting a Bollinger Band triplet strategy What are the best markets to pairs trade Trading an ETF against a basket of its component stocks Two ways of constructing a basket Exercise: Backtesting an index arbitrage trading model Ranking stocks in an index based on various simple returns criteria How minor variations in strategies can produce big differences in returns Important biases and pitfalls in backtesting long-short portfolio strategies Exercise: Backtesting variations of a long-short portfolio strategy HEDGE FUND RISK AND OTHER DISCLOSURES Hedge funds, including fund of funds (Hedge Funds), are unregistered private investment partnerships, funds or pools that may invest and trade in many different markets, strategies and instruments (including securities, non-securities and derivatives) and are NOT subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds, including mutual fund requirements to provide certain periodic and standardized pricing and valuati on information to investors. There are substantial risks in investing in Hedge Funds. Persons interested in investing in Hedge Funds should carefully note the following: Hedge Funds represent speculative investments and involve a high degree of risk. An investor could lose all or a substantial portion of hisher investment. Investors must have the financial ability, sophisticationexperience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment in a Hedge Fund. An investment in a Hedge Fund should be discretionary capital set aside strictly for speculative purposes. An investment in a Hedge Fund is not suitable or desirable for all investors. Only qualified eligible investors may invest in Hedge Funds. Hedge Fund offering documents are not reviewed or approved by federal or state regulators Hedge Funds may be leveraged (including highly leveraged) and a Hedge Funds performance may be volatile An investment in a Hedge Fund may be illiquid and there may be significant restrictions on transferring interests in a Hedge Fund. There is no secondary market for an investors investment in a Hedge Fund and none is expected to develop. A Hedge Fund may have little or no operating history or performance and may use hypothetical or pro forma performance which may not reflect actual trading done by the manager or advisor and should be reviewed carefully. Investors should not place undue reliance on hypothetical or pro forma performance. A Hedge Funds manager or advisor has total trading authority over the Hedge Fund. A Hedge Fund may use a single advisor or employ a single strategy, which could mean a lack of diversification and higher risk. A Hedge Fund (for example, a fund of funds) and its managers or advisors may rely on the trading expertise and experience of third-party managers or advisors, the identity of which may not be disclosed to investors A Hedge Fund may involve a complex tax structure, which should be reviewed carefully. A Hedge Fund may involve structures or strategies that may cause delays in important tax information being sent to investors. A Hedge Fund may provide no transparency regarding its underlying investments (including sub-funds in a fund of funds structure) to investors. If this is the case, there will be no way for an investor to monitor the specific investments made by the Hedge Fund or, in a fund of funds structure, to know whether the sub-fund investments are consistent with the Hedge Funds investment strategy or risk levels. A Hedge Fund may execute a substantial portion of trades on foreign exchanges or over-the-counter markets, which could mean higher risk. A Hedge Funds fees and expenses-which may be substantial regardless of any positive return - will offset the Hedge Funds trading profits. In a fund of funds or similar structure, fees are generally charged at the fund as well as the sub-fund levels therefore fees charged investors will be higher that those charged if the investor invested directly in the sub-fund(s). Hedge Funds are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors. Hedge Funds and their managersadvisors may be subject to various conflicts of interest. The above general summary is not a complete list of the risks and other important disclosures involved in investing in Hedge Funds and, with respect to any particular Hedge Fund, is subject to the more complete and specific disclosures contained in such Hedge Funds respective offering documents. Before making any investment, an investor should thoroughly review a Hedge Funds offering documents with the investors financial, legal and tax advisor to determine whether an investment in the Hedge Fund is suitable for the investor in light of the investors investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax situation. All performance information is believed to be net of applicable fees unless otherwise specifically noted. No representation is made that any fund will or is likely to achieve its objectives or that any investor will or is likely to achieve results comparable to those shown or will make any profit at all or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. Past performance is not necessarily indicative, and is no guarantee, of future results. The information on the Site is intended for informational, educational and research purposes only. Nothing on this Site is intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice, be an opinion of the appropriateness or suitability of an investment, or intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security or an endorsement or inducement to invest with any fund or fund manager. No such offer or solicitation may be made prior to the delivery of appropriate offering documents to qualified investors. Before making any investment, you should thoroughly review the particular funds confidential offering documents with your financial, legal and tax advisor and conduct such due diligence as you (and they) deem appropriate. We do not provide investment advice and no information or material on the Site is to be relied upon for the purpose of making investment or other decisions. Accordingly, we assume no responsibility or liability for a ny investment decisions or advice, treatment, or services rendered by any investor or any person or entity mentioned, featured on or linked to the Site. The information on this Site is as of the date(s) indicated, is not a complete description of any fund, and is subject to the more complete disclosures and terms and conditions contained in a particular funds offering documents, which may be obtained directly from the fund. Certain of the information, including investment returns, valuations, fund targets and strategies, has been supplied by the funds or their agents, and other third parties, and although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No warranty, express or implied, representation or guarantee is made as to the accuracy, validity, timeliness, completeness or suitability of this information. Any indices and other financial benchmarks shown are provided for illustrative purposes only, are unmanaged, reflect reinvestment of income and dividends and do not reflect the impact of advisory fees. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Comparisons to indexes have limitations because indexes have volatility and other material characteristics that may differ from a particular hedge fund. For example, a hedge fund may typically hold substantially fewer securities than are contained in an index. Indices also may contain securities or types of securities that are not comparable to those traded by a hedge fund. Therefore, a hedge funds performance may differ substantially from the performance of an index. Because of these differences, indexes should not be relied upon as an accurate measure of comparison. Bitcoin statistical arbitrage Recently, little-known Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency attracted unprecedented hype, setting it on par with big currencies. Amid growing popularity cryptocurrencies trade volumes skyrocketed. Meanwhile, bitcoin trading exchanges are still very young, ineffective and lack professional players, which means that they can be successfully used for implementing various strategies like cross-exchange arbitrage. Given the bitcoins unusually high volatility and the fact that price differences on various exchanges often reach 20 or even more, the potential profitability of arbitrage strategies in bitcoin market becomes huge, especially in comparison with classical markets. In this article we describe a unique trading strategy - Bitcoin statistical arbitrage and show how to create a MegaTrader trading robot that implements this strategy. Currently there are several cryptocurrency exchanges, but only two of them have satisfactory liquidity. First - MtGox Japanese exchange, which is the oldest and biggest in terms of trading volume bitcoin exchange. The second is young and rapidly evolving BTC-e. An interesting feature of these exchanges is MTGox bitcoins being usually more expensive than the BTC-e. As an example, we provide the price chart for MTGox (blue line) and BTC-e (red line) from 14 August to 24 December 2018: To make it clearer, heres the spread chart (MtGox price - BTC-e price): After a short glance at the charts first thing that comes to mind is buying bitcoins at BTC-e, transferring them to MtGox and selling there. This strategy is commonly advised by various authors at bitcoin-related trading websites and blogs. However, if you do thorough calculations it turns out that this strategy is not so profitable. First, while the transfer is carried from BTC-e to MTGox, bitcoin price may fall, which, given the high volatility of bitcoin, is totally possible and can cause significant losses. Second, withdrawal from MTGox takes from two weeks to a month, which significantly limits the rate of such arbitrage operations to one, maximum two per month. Third, the commissions for withdrawal from MTGox and deposit to BTC-e for the next round will eat up a good portion of profit. As a result, in its purest form, this strategy is not relevant for an average trader. We offer a more profitable strategy - statistical arbitrage between bitcoin exchanges. This strategy is based on the phenomenon of spread value preservation between different assets (correlation). We profit with speculation on pairs spread fluctuations. In relation to bitcoin statistical arbitrage is done as follows: when the difference in prices (MtGox - BTC-e) is higher than the historical average, we sell the spread, ie short on MTGox and simultaneous long on BTC-e. and vice versa - when the price difference is lower than historical average, we buy the spread. When the difference between the prices returns to its historical mean, positions are closed. The advantage of such statistical arbitrage is almost complete absence of risk: because our net position consists of divergent positions on the same instrument, it always remains neutral to the market and thus is insured to any news and bitcoin volatility. The only risk is the historical mean value changing. However, in case of bitcoin, this risk is also negligiblebecause we trade the same asset on both exchanges and ratio changes can not be too large. The only problem persisting is that these exchanges do not offer the possibility to go short, ie you can not sell bitcoins. But, fortunately, there is a way around - using bitcoin CFD contracts. Because of rapid bitcoin popularity growth a number of forex brokers and dealing centers started providing the possibility to trade bitcoin in CFD-contracts. In the future the number of such companies will very likely continue to grow. Most brokers use MtGoxs bitcoin price as the base asset price for their CFDs. At the same time BTC-e, since October 2018, offers a special account for MetaTrader - with the possibility to trade bitcoins through MetaTrader 4 and most importantly - they provide short selling opportunity. In the result we have a potentially simple implementation of statistical arbitrage between MTGox and BTC-e. It is enough to open two accounts: first - with a forex dealer providing bitcoin CFD-contracts with MTGox prices and the second - BTC-e MetaTrader-account. Then its enough to enter the right algorithm in Megatrader program and youre set to profit from price difference. Now to the real experience: here we will tell you how to implement bitcoin statistical arbitrage with Megatrader. First the spread symbol must be formed. To do this, go to Settings gt Composite instrument settings. Now we add bitcoins CFD contract to hort tab, BTC-e goes to Long tab. When adding the CFD we should double check the lot size and other settings and set the Lots in spread unit parameter to be equal to one BTC. For example, if a contract is 100 BTC, Lots in spread unit should be set to 0.01. BTC-e contract is equal to 1 BTC, so we set Lots in spread unit as 1. Now straight to the trading algorithm creation, which is written in a special Megatraders internal scripting language. Algorithms main idea was mentioned above: we sellbuy the spread when it fluctuates abovebelow its historical mean accordingly. Positions are closed when the spread reverts to the mean value. The question appears - how is this historical mean value calculated The easiest method is applying a high-period moving average (say, 5000) on the spread. To realise the strategy in Megatrader necessary indicators should first be applied to the spread chart. To do so, go to Chart gt Add chart, then we add the indicator Mean Price, which shows the average value of Bid and Offer prices. Our next step is adding the moving average itself, picking MeanPrice as the data source. Also an identifier should be set for our moving average to call it from the script (default is MA). Now we can proceed to script creation itself. The easiest to write script (simplest) implementing the strategy looks approximately as follows: Lets test it on a historical data chunk from 25 November to 20 December of 2018 year. Please take into consideration that BTC-e exchange charges a commission for each order, and it should be taken into the calculation while backtesting. Lets set the commission to 2.5 points (its excessive, frankly spreaking). After backtesting we get the following resulting profitability chart: Now to a more peculiar historical ratio calculation method. To do so, we build the chart of MTGox divided by BTC-e prices: As can be seen, the resulting chart is more stationary (cointegrated) than the one we got before. We can clearly see that the average value fluctuates somewhere near 1.1. It means, that, on average, MtGoxs bitcoin price is 1.1 times (10) more than BTC-es. Lets call this a fair historical ratio. From here we can easily calculate that the real spread (MTGox - BTC-e), will be equal to 10 of BTC-es price: So, assuming prices are currently at a fair ratio: MTGox BTC-e 1.1. therefore MTGox 1.1BTC-e . By placing this into the spreads formula we get: Spred MTGox BTC-e 1.1BTC-e BTC-e 0.1BTC-e . We can then take this historical ratio and place it into our script instead of our MA. The results are: As it can be seen, the script mainly remained the same. The only change is historical ratio calculation formula in the script. Also we have fiddled with deviation necessary to open a position (weve set it from 30 to 20), to make our system trade more often. Testing our new script on the same historical data period: Systems results became even better: after a months trading of 1 BTC we gained a profit of 863 with 100 profitable trades. So weve seen two examples of trading algorithms and scripts that implement bitcoin statistical arbitrage. Despite the fact that these strategies are quite simple, they nevertheless demonstrate high potential yield. However, there are many ways of further improvement of these trading algorithms. For example, multi-level position averaging can be added. An example of it can be seen in our another article - Calendar arbitrage, Part 2 - Trading Robot - creating a trading robot. Script described there can be used for bitcoin arbitrage virtually unchanged. In conclusion, we would like to note that as long as there will be funds transfer difficulties between trading exchanges, and most will not offer short selling opportunity, a significant difference in prices between different bitcoin exchanges is likely to stay. which means that this strategy does not lose its relevance. Thus, the current situation on cryptocurrency stock exchanges provides traders with a unique opportunity to take advantage of arbitrage and get a great profitwhile maintaining minimal risk. Satisfied Customers: 15052 Experience: Inc Tax, CGT, Corp Tax, IHT, VAT. replied 4 years ago. Ive had several questions from other forex traders here who are treated as self-employed as opposed to hobby traders who will pay Capital Gains Tax on any profits. The advent of day trading in the UK is fairly new and so Im not aware of any relevant case law. However, if you were making pound100,000 a year the Revenue would almost certainly want to charge income tax instead of CGT so there is an element of hypocrisy in their attitude to you. It is difficult to prove that you are trading unless you are doing it full time and making profits that you can live off in the absence of any other income source. An Inspector can disallow trading losses for a taxpayer in any business if he thinks that the business is not being run along commercial lines with a view to making a profit. Clearly, nobody sets out to make losses. You might take a look here for some help and advice. Im sure there are other traders who have run into the problem you have who may be able to give you some pointers. You may also be interested in the notes here. Failing that, you can appeal against the Inspectors decision and ask for the matter to be decided at a tribunal. If the losses arent allowed they can be carried forward for offset against future trading profits. اسمحوا لي أن أعرف إذا كان لديك أي استفسار. Your role as a learning leader exists to drive an organization to achieve or exceed its business goals. Nothing else matters 8212 anything else is a waste of time and resources. If you then want to develop and implement a social learning strategy. you have to understand the strategy and goals of the business. If you dont 8212 and you dont know for certain that your social learning strategy will help the organization hit those goals 8212 drop the social learning strategy and find another solution. Learning professionals struggle with this. It sounds complex, but it is really quite simple. Decision makers struggle with aligning social learning strategies to business goals precisely because it is difficult to believe it can be so simple. For example, if the goal of the organization is to grow earnings by 15 per year and the business strategy is to become the low cost provider, increase client retention to 95, and increase customer satisfaction to 78, then the social learning strategy you create should be laser-focused on delivering learning experiences that enable customer satisfaction and innovation. Anything else is a waste of time and will threaten your credibility as a leader in the organization. Lets look at a specific example to demonstrate the point. The long term goal of Cisco, the IT networking giant, is to grow earnings by 12 17 per year 8212 no small feat for a company worth well over 100 billion. The strategy for achieving this goal is called One Cisco and means that Cisco is reorganizing its business to break down silos among business units so that when a customer deals with Cisco, they deal with one Cisco person or team, no matter what product they purchase. In other words, in todays Cisco, if a customer wants to buy a router, it deals with an entirely different group of Cisco employees than if it wants to buy video conferencing services. This can lead to confusing and frustrating experiences for customers who want to buy multiple products from Cisco. So the strategy is to create One Cisco in the eyes of its customers. Obviously, we are not inside Cisco and do not know the specifics of the business strategy, but knowing what we know from this brief description, what would your social learning strategy be if you were defining it Would you reorganize the learning organization into a single unit like the rest of Cisco How would you design learning experiences so that you would help people break down silos and work together in teams What goals would you set for your learning department that would support Ciscos earnings growth goals Think about these questions and add your comments below about what type of social learning strategy you would develop at Cisco. Your social learning strategy can only be determined with a thorough understanding of the business goals and strategy because your role as a learning leader exists only to drive the organization towards achieving its goals. Ricky Williams: totally worth trading up for. Ezra ShawGetty Images During the NFL Draft, fans of every team scream at their TVs for their squad to slide down the draft order. They think its a no-lose scenario. It seems like every rookie is like a lottery ticket, either priceless or worthless. The more players their favorite team drafts, they think, greater the odds one of them turns out to be valuable. Every fan loves to hear their teams a draft day winner. The NFL Draft is the only competition between February and September you want your team in the Winners section of the inevitable post-draft columns. The surest way for teams to get great grades from the draftniks is to fill as many holes as possible the more picks they have to do that with, the better. Fans love when their team trades on draft day, because 1) it means a guaranteed few minutes of attention, and 2) it show their team has an active strategy, and isnt just sitting around waiting for other teams to steal all their best targets. Trading is another chance for a fans team to beat somebody, too. One team will be hailed as the victor of the trade, and the team with the higher pick has leverage to extract a premium from the other team. But fans real love of trading down has nothing to do with pride, victory or winning. Fans dont like risk. Jed JacobsohnGetty Images Former Saints head coach Mike Ditka, who knew the value of a franchise player. Fans dont want their team to be like the Mike Ditka - led New Orleans Saints. who traded their entire 1999 draft, plus their 2000 first - and third-round picks, for Ricky Williams. They want their team to be like the Washington Redskins. who received that mighty haul of value for the their No. 5 overall pick. They dont want their franchise pinned on one playermdashone player who might not work out. But the Redskins didnt stand pat with the Saints crop of picks. They packaged much of what they got in the trade to move back up to the No. 7 overall pick, and took cornerback Champ Bailey. The Redskins 1999 draft class ultimately consisted of one pick each in the first, second, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds one pick less than they were originally allocated. Why didnt the Redskins hold on to all the Saints mid-round picks Because high picks have much more value. That is to say, theyre worth much more. There are many variations on former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnsons Trade Value Chart. but they all reveal something important: draft picks get exponentially more valuable the closer you get to the top. Per the TVC linked above, the No. 1 overall draft pick has a value of 3,000. The first pick of the third round has a value of 265. Think about that for a moment: if you offered an NFL team either their top-graded prospect from the entire draft class, or take their favorite 11 players left on the third day, they should take the top prospect . The difference in value between a first - and third-round pick is quite large, but the difference between mid-round picks is negligible. The first pick of the second round is worth 580 points, slightly more than double the third-rounders 265. Two hundred sixty-five is slightly more than double the top fourth-round picks 112. To put that in perspective, the difference between Ricky Williams draft position (No. 5 overall) and Champ Baileys (No. 7) is 200, the same as the 14th pick of the third round. In fact, if you added together the first pick in the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds, youd only have 1,041.2 points of trade value: a third of the 3,000 youd need to acquire the No. 1 overall. Of course, once you translate these picks into players, it doesnt always convert. Any player in any point in the draft (or even those undrafted) could become a Hall of Famer. But the odds that top picks pan out are much, much higher these values often accurately describe what these players mean to the bottom line. Chris TrotmanGetty Images Would the Carolina Panthers rather have Cam Newton or eleven Terrell McClains Newton, or every other player they drafted in 2018 The Panthers would take Newton every time. Newton is a game-changer, a difference-maker, a franchise player. A smart trade down could still have netted the Panthers a quarterback. But by giving up Newton for a Jake Locker or a Colin Kaepernick, the Panthers would have passed up the player that saved their team. This is the risk fans dont see: the opportunity cost of passing on a game-changing player. Stocking the roster with second - and third-rounders sounds like a great way to build a team. The reality is, those players are busts even more frequently than top picks, and their quality is rarely as high. This is why higher picks have more value: you can fill holes with second-, third - and fourth-round picksmdashbut if the players cant do what the team needs them to do, that hole hasnt been filled. Doug BencGetty Images Teddy Lehman pulls up as hes beaten for a touchdown. Jared WickerhamGetty Images Jordon Dizon is helped off the field. Instead of saving resources by not spending a first-round pick or large free-agent contract on a middle linebacker, Millen wasted resources by trying to meet major needs with minimal resources. Instead of getting value for money, he threw good money after bad. If your franchise needs a difference-maker at a certain position, theyd better acquire one or leave the hole unfilled. Dont get a position later, get the player you need at that position or dont get one at all. Millen found this out the hard way: A starting lineup full of middle-round picks is not a middling team, its a terrible team. The Saints gave up an entire draft to get Ricky Williams, and Williams didnt save the franchise. But Williams was an excellent player he finished with over 10,000 career rushing yards. Moreover, when the Saints gave up on Williams, they got four picks, including two first-rounders, in return. Larry FrenchGetty Images Though history remembers the Saints trade up as a massive blunder, they got a difference-making player in return. When they traded him, they got nearly all their draft value backmdashbecause nothings more valuable to an NFL than a difference maker. Now at Last You can Discover the Hidden Secrets Behind WD Ganns Outstanding Stock Commodities Market Success WD Gann is THE LEGEND in trading folklore WD Ganns body of work was enormous and covered many interesting areas of speculative ventures including the stock market and commodities or futures trading. سمعته الطيبة جعلت أكثر من 50 مليون التداول على مهنته - وليس من المستغرب في سنواته الأخيرة ود، كما كان يحب أن يعرف باسم، أخذ علمه في سباق الخيل وكازينو الألعاب. Ganns methods have something for every trader for forecasting of Time and Price targets to mechanical methods. To learn more on how you can apply WD Ganns techniques to the market by look around this site. Announcing Special New Webinar: GOLD Discover What the Major Cycles are in Gold How to Trade it Free It is FREE and presented by a leading Gann expert David Hunt Market Technician and Advisor as well as one of the Worlds best Market Timers book nowgtgt Wiley Trading Guide II Author moregtgt GannTraders senior software trainer Book your Place at the next session now click heregtgt You deserve a top-notch trading experience. Customize the way you trade with your own apps, or check out these solutions from our growing network of API partners. VectorVest analyzes, sorts, ranks and graphs over 8,000 stocks every day for Value, Safety and Timing and gives each stock a clear Buy, Sell or Hold rating. فهو يجمع بين نظرة ثاقبة التقييم الأساسي مع قوة التحليل الفني لتعطيك حافة في اليوم يسير بخطى سريعة السوق. VectorVest also provides a market timing system that aims to help you buy-low and sell-high. SmartStops helps investors of all levels easily identify and sidestep periods of above normal risk. We all make buying decisions based on riskreward analysis. Unfortunately, risk does not remain constant through time. SmartStops actively monitors your portfolio throughout the day watching for signs of above normal risk. If any of your stocks or ETFs fall and trigger its SmartStop risk alert, consider selling or taking other protective action. انه من السهل. Over 4,000 stocks and ETFs covered Optimized short-term and longer-term protective exits published daily Continuous portfolio monitoring Automated email risk alert ionDESK, by Gambrell Software, is a professional trading workspace providing comprehensive tools for different types of traders. With ionDESK, you can practice trading for free against live market data. The workspace provides the ability to perform research, plan trades and submit advanced bracketed orders. Get exclusive tools like Sentiment Builder, Pin Action and Robot for automated trading. Mint pulls all your financial accounts into one place. Set a budget, track your goals and do more with your money, for free TradeKing supports full integration with Mint. Click Services gt Settings gt Partner password to connect your brokerage account. SigFig syncs with your 401(k), IRA, brokerage and advisor accounts then automatically pulls all your investments into a single dashboard. Is Your Pyramiding Strategy Limiting Your Returns Pyramiding in and out of trades is a very popular method used by many traders attempting to maximize profit while limiting losses. However, as with any generally accepted methodology, there is actually more to pyramiding than meets the eye. There are many instances where pyramiding in or out of positions can actually reduce the overall return or increase the maximum drawdowns of a strategy. Knowing how to isolate and test each aspect of your pyramiding approach can shed a great deal of light on whether it is actually helping your strategy. Sometimes the benefits only exist in our heads. Pyramiding in and out of positions is generally believed to be a good idea, but Mike shows that in some instances it can be ineffective. Mike Bryant published a very insightful piece at System Trader Success that took a look at the different aspects of testing an exit strategy that scales out in two steps. The shocking part of the article is that Mike discovered that the system actually performed best when one aspect of the exit strategy was completely eliminated. The Basic Strategy The strategy that Mike uses for his article is designed to trade 15 minute bars on the short side of the mini Russell 2000 futures. His strategy establishes a full short position when it receives a signal and then exits half of the position based on one set of circumstances and the other half of the position under another set of circumstances. When Mikes strategy takes a new short position, it immediately sets an initial stop and a profit target. If the profit target is hit, the strategy takes a profit on half of the position. The other half of the position adjusts its initial stop to the breakeven point and uses a trailing stop to secure any additional profits. This strategy represents the basic concept of taking a portion of the profits off the table and leaving the rest of them to run. This is generally accepted as a good idea, but Mike discovered that it was actually hurting the systems overall performance. Testing Multiple Exits In order to test the impact that each of the exits had on the overall strategy, Mike programmed them as two separate strategies and tested them as a combined system. Each of the strategies was programmed to take half a position on each entry and then follow its specific exit criteria. Using a program that allowed him to optimize how much of the total position should be allocated to each exit strategy, Mike found out that the best overall system would allocate 100 of its capital to the system that based its exits on the trailing stop. Therefore, taking half the position off of the table at a certain profit level was counter-productive in the long-run. Mike specified in his optimization program that he needed to keep the maximum drawdown under 30. Using that as a maximum, the combined system returned a net profit of 82,000 on his backtesting data. Maintaining the same maximum drawdown and allocating the entire exit capital to the trailing stop version produced a net profit of 129,000. Of course, this doesnt mean that pyramiding is always a bad idea. This is just one strategy that is focused on one specific market and time frame. The important concept is that we must find a way to test all of our assumptions. Editors Note: Youll have to register on the publisher site to be able to use this program. Youre about to learn the secrets to raking in massive amounts of Cash Forex Trading, no matter how much time you have had to prepare it doesnt matter if youve never had any past Forex trading experience or education, This guide will tell you everything you need to know, without spending too much brainpower. اكتشاف بالضبط ما هو سوق الأوراق المالية كل شيء. تعلم اتجاهات سوق الأسهم الجديدة. تعرف على كيفية فهم تحويل العملة. اكتشاف تقلب العملات الأجنبية وتوقعات السوق. تعلم جوانب التجارة. كلمات الطنانة التي تحتاج إلى معرفته. اكتشاف العديد من عوامل إدارة المخاطر تحتاج إلى معرفته. تعلم بالضبط كيفية قراءة وتفسير الإحصاءات. اكتشاف كيفية التعامل مع انحراف. Find out how to use arbitrage correctly. An in depth look at secondary markets. كيفية استخدام سوق الصرف الأجنبي لصالحك. Learn how to properly protect your investments. This version is the first release on CNET Download. 34nothing but an attempt to generate leads34 March 02, 2018 By OahuProfessor Version: Insider039s Guide To Forex Trading 5.0 More Products to Consider Please describe the problem you have with this software. This information will be sent to our editors for review. Top five intraday trading strategies from analysts for Friday (Record buying by foreignhellip) NEW DELHI: Markets, which took a breather in the previous trading session, bounced back on Friday with the SP Sensex regaining 20,000 levels. Record buying by foreign funds in cash market coupled with recent fall in crude and gold prices are some of the key drivers for this rally, say analysts. Technically, Nifty is continuously trading in higher highs and higher lows, Rising Channel on daily charts, which is bullish in nature. Short term strategy should be buy Nifty on every dips for the target of 6130- 6150. On the downside, 5980-5950 would be near term support zone, brokerage firm SMC said in a morning note. We have collated five intraday trading strategies for Friday from various brokerage firms: Brokerage Firm: SMC Apollo Tyres Ltd: Short for a target of Rs 92, keeping stop loss at Rs 96.50 It is apparent from weekly charts that the stock is continuously trading in an uptrend from past eight months. After making top around Rs 102 levels, stock was traded sideways in range of Rs 80-90 levels for five months. Currently it has formed a reversal candle on weekly charts which suggests that some short term correction is due at current levels. Investors are advised to sell this stock for the downside target of Rs 92-91 with stop loss of Rs 96.50. Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd: Short for a target of Rs 425, keeping stop loss at Rs 443 The stock has witnessed a decent upside rally from its 52-week low of Rs 370 and tested Rs 460 in single upward journey while trading in higher highs and higher lows sort of Rising channel on daily charts. It has given the breakdown of higher trending support line and is still trading below the same, so we anticipate that selling momentum can continue for coming days to achieve our desire target of Rs 425-421 with stop loss of Rs 443. Reliance Power Ltd: Buy for a target of Rs 83, keeping stop loss at Rs 77.50 In line with correction in broader indices, stock also corrected and registered an all-time low of Rs 58 levels. With reversal of market trend, stock has retraced its earlier gains and formed the Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern on daily charts, which is considered to be bullish. On Thursday, stock had given the neckline breakout of pattern with high volume. Therefore, investors can make long for the upside target of Rs 83-84 with stop loss of Rs 77.50. Analyst: Mitesh Thacker of miteshthacker Century Textiles Ltd: Buy for a target of Rs 320, keeping stop loss at Rs 312.80 The share price of Century Textiles had registered breakout from an inverted head and shoulder pattern in the last week. The implication of this target comes out to be Rs 335 followed by Rs 347.50 levels. The stock is sustaining above its cluster of moving averages and closed above its upper end of Bollinger band. The momentum indicator is also rising. Traders can create long position now and again on dips up to Rs 318 --320 with a stop placed below Rs 312.80 levels, for the above mentioned targets. DLF: Sell for a target of Rs 225, keeping stop loss at Rs 242.20 The share price of DLF has been trading sideways after declining from the highs of Rs 289.25 to the lows of Rs 227.50. Last week, the stock registered breakdown from its upward sloping trend line, after that it pulled back and retested the trend line. With Thursdays down move, the stock has closed below its rising trend line. The stock is also trading below its cluster of moving averages. Trading below Rs 227.50 the stock is likely to accelerate the downward move. The momentum indicator is rolling downward. We recommend sell now with a stop loss placed above Rs 242.20 for the targets of Rs 225218210 levels. (The views and recommendations expressed in this section are the analysts own and do not represent those of EconomicTimes)Le Guide Complet de l39Analyse Technique Pour La Gestion de Vos Portefeuilles Boursiers LE GUIDE COMPLET DE LANALYSE TECHNIQUE Openmirrors LE GUIDE COMPLET DE LANALYSE TECHNIQUE pour la gestion de vos portefeuilles boursiers Openmirrors Thierry Clment, ingnieur de formation, est un spcialiste de lanalyse technique quil pratique depuis une vingtaine dannes. Crateur de lun des premiers logiciels boursiers sous windows dans les annes 90, il anime depuis cette date des sminaires sur lanalyse technique destination des particuliers et a dj publi deux ouvrages sur ce sujet. L auteur peut tre contact . thierry-clementmaxima. fr A Nadine, Julien, et Cline. Infosnouveautscatalogue. maxima. fr 192, bd Saint-Germain, 75007 Paris tl. 33 1 44 39 74 00 fax. 33 1 45 48 46 88 Maxima, Paris, 2006. ISBN. 2 84 001 480-7 La premire dition de ce livre a paru sous le titre Le meilleur de lanalyse technique pour la gestion de vos portefeuilles boursiers. Tous droits de reproduction, de traduction et dadaptation rservs pour tous les pays. Openmirrors TABLE DES MATIRES Avant-propos. 13 1. La prvision des cours de Bourse. Peut-on prvoir les cours de Bourse. Les outils de lanalyse technique. les graphes. Le choix dune mthode de reprsentation. Le choix dune chelle. 2. Notions de support et de rsistance. La mmoire de march. Tracer des droites de support et de rsistance. Les forces de march prs dune rsistance. Franchissement de la rsistance. Les forces de march prs du support. Un support. lieu de consensus. Une rsistance franchie la hausse devient un support. Un support franchi la baisse devient une rsistance. La qualit dune rsistance ou dun support. Deux exemples de stratgies sur support et rsistance. Quelques principes retenir. 17 17 18 20 24 27 27 28 30 31 33 35 35 37 38 42 44 3. Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles. 47 Droites de tendance. 47 Tendances court terme et tendances long terme. 50 Perptuation des tendances long terme. 51 Les Moyennes Mobiles. 53 Les Moyennes Mobiles linaires. 54 Quels cours choisir pour le moyennage. 55 Signaux dachat et de vente sur Moyenne Mobile. 57 Rglage de la Moyenne Mobile. 62 Moyennes Mobiles en reprsentations graphiques journalires et hebdomadaire. 63 Table des matires x 5 Openmirrors Moyennes Mobiles pondres et exponentielles. Choisir une Moyenne Mobile linaire ou exponentielle. Optimiser la dcision dachat. Stratgies sur Moyennes Mobiles. 64 67 67 68 4. Les figures de lanalyse technique. 71 Les figures de retournement. 72 La Figure en tte et paules. 72 Les conditions de validation dun tte et paules. 75 Lesprance de baisse dun tte et paules. 76 Les variantes du tte et paules. 77 Les autres figures de retournement. 81 Les soucoupes et les soucoupes renverses. 81 Le double sommet. 82 La figure en W. 83 Le triple sommet. 84 Le triple creux. 85 Le diamant. 86 Les figures de continuation. 87 Les figures de doute. 93 Les figures sur chandeliers japonais. 96 Le Recouvrement Haussier. Figure haussire. 99 Le Recouvrement Baissier. Figure baissire. 100 Le Nuage Noir. Figure baissire. 102 La Pntrante. Figure haussire. 103 Ltoile du matin. Figure haussire. 104 Ltoile du matin DOJI. Figure haussire. 105 Ltoile du soir. Figure baissire. 106 Ltoile du soir Doji. Figure baissire. 107 Le Harami. Figure dinterruption. 108 Les trois corbeaux noirs. Figure de continuation baissire. 109 Les trois soldats blancs. 110 Ltoile filante. Figure baissire. 111 Les Gaps. 112 5. Les indicateurs techniques. 117 Les diffrents types dindicateurs techniques. 117 Les indicateurs de tendance. 118 6 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Lindicateur de Vitesse. 118 Les indicateurs de mouvement directionnel (DMI). 122 Lindicateur ADX. 123 Lindicateur MACD. 124 Les Oscillateurs. 126 Le RSI. 127 Le Stochastique. 130 Lindicateur CCI. 131 Loscillateur sur Moyenne Mobile. 133 Le momentum. 134 Les indicateurs bass sur les volumes. 136 LOBV. 137 Lindicateur dAccumulation Distribution. 139 LOscillateur sur les volumes. 140 LOscillateur de Chaikin. 141 Le Volume ROC. 142 Les indicateurs statistiques. 143 La volatilit. 143 LAverage True Range (ATR). 146 Les Bandes de Bollinger. 148 6. Battre lindice avec lindicateur de force relative. 153 L indicateur de force relative. 153 Slectivit lachat. 154 Prvoir les retournements. 156 Choisir les titres les plus performants. 158 Le choix des indices. 163 Exemple de filtrage secteurs et de filtrage valeurs . 165 Conclusion. 166 7. L analyse technique comparative des diffrents marchs. 167 Analyse comparative des diffrents marchs dactions. 169 Comparaison entre le Nasdaq et le CAC 40. 169 Comparaison entre le CAC 40 et le Dow-Jones. 174 Analyse comparative des marchs dactions et dobligations. 177 Analyse comparative des marchs de matires premires et des obligations. 180 Table des matires x 7 Openmirrors Analyse comparative du march de lor et des actions. 182 Analyse comparative du march des actions et du dollar. 183 Conclusion. 184 8. Autres outils techniques. 187 Les vagues dElliott. 187 La thorie. 187 Les nombres de Fibonacci. 189 L utilisation de la thorie dElliott en analyse technique. 190 Les retracements de Fibonacci. 193 Les angles de Gann. 196 Les diagrammes en Points et Figures. 198 Analyse dun diagramme en Points et Figures. 202 Le systme parabolique SAR. 204 9. Pratiquer lanalyse technique sur le march des actions. 207 Le graphique dabord. 207 Analyses priodiques et systmatiques. 207 L analyse du march. 208 Analyse sur diffrentes chelles de temps. 211 L analyse des secteurs industriels. 213 L analyse technique des valeurs. 214 Surveiller les positions actuelles. 214 Savoir vendre. 216 Vendre dcouvert. 217 Savoir acheter de nouvelles valeurs. 218 Savoir composer et diversifier son portefeuille. 222 Avoir la bonne attitude face aux vnement extrieurs. 224 Savoir se remettre en question. 227 Mieux contrler ses motions avec lanalyse technique. 229 10. Les performances de lanalyse technique sur le march des actions. 233 Choix dune mthode de calcul. 233 Les diffrentes priodes de ltude. 234 Bilan de la stratgie. 242 8 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors 11. Les systmes de trading. 245 Les techniques de gnration de signaux dentre et de sortie. 245 Les systmes bass sur le suivi de tendance. 247 Les systmes a contrario de la tendance. 250 Optimiser les signaux dune stratgie trend following . 252 Les systmes de trading bass sur la dtection des figures. 253 La protection et la gestion du capital. 255 Le paramtrage dun systme de trading. 257 Tests et performances dun systme de trading. 257 Visualisation graphique de la performance. 263 Optimisation dun systme de trading. 264 Conclusion. 266 12. Pratiquer lanalyse technique sur les options et les warrants. 269 Les options ngociables. 269 Les options. des contrats fort effet de levier. 270 La vente doptions. 272 Options sur Indices. 272 Les Warrants. 272 Les bons de souscription. 273 Les paramtres faisant varier le cours dune option. 273 Notions de volatilit implicite. 275 Surveiller la volatilit. 276 Dmarrage de tendance haussire. achat de Calls. 277 Dmarrage de tendance baissire. achat de Puts. 280 Rebond sur une zone de support: vente de Puts. 283 Rebond sur une zone de rsistance. vente de Calls. 285 Les figures graphiques et la volatilit. 286 Conclusion. 288 13. Pratiquer lanalyse technique sur les certificats. 289 Dfinition. 289 Suivi de tendance haussire avec un certificat. 291 Suivi de tendance baissire avec un certificat. 294 Couverture de positions avec les certificats. 295 Conclusion. 297 Table des matires x 9 Openmirrors 14. Lanalyse technique Intraday. 299 Reprsentation graphique dune sance boursire. 299 Utilisation des supports et rsistances. 301 Tendances et Moyennes Mobiles en Intraday. 303 Les figures techniques en Intraday. 307 Les retracements de Fibonacci en Intraday. 307 L analyse technique intermarchs en Intraday. 307 Les indicateurs techniques et les systmes de trading en Intraday. 308 Les diffrents types dintervenants sur une sance Intraday. 310 L optimisation dune position investisseur avec lIntraday. 312 Le Market Profile. 316 Conclusion. 320 15. Pratiquer lanalyse technique sur les contrats terme. 321 Dfinition. 321 Le Future sur CAC 40 (FCE). 323 La marge et leffet de levier. 324 Les frais de transactions sur Futures. 326 Les contrats Futures et les autres produits drivs. 327 Grer les contrats terme avec un plan de Trading. 328 Rgles dentre et de sortie dans le march. 329 Gestion du risque (Risk Management). 333 Gestion du capital (Money Management ). 337 La diversification. 342 Conclusion. 345 16. Pratiquer lanalyse technique sur le march des changes (Forex). 347 Le Forex. 347 Outils techniques sur le Forex. 349 Les points pivots. 350 Gestion du risque et du capital sur un compte Forex. 352 Autres particularits du Forex. 352 17. Nouveaux concepts en analyse technique. 355 Analyse spectrale. 355 10 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Filtrage numrique. 358 Filtre de Kalman. 362 Autres techniques auto-adaptatives. 364 Conclusion. 367 18. Lanalyse technique sur Internet. 369 Sites de tlchargement de logiciels boursiers. 369 Sites de tlchargement de cours. 371 Sites fournissant des graphiques historiques. 375 Lettres boursires sur Internet. 382 Portails et autres sites. 384 Conclusion. 385 Rpres bibliographiques. 387 Table alphabtique. 389 Table des matires x 11 Openmirrors REMERCIEMENTS Je tiens remercier tout particulirement Grard Chateau (trader indpendant), Pascal Hirtz (de WH SELFINVEST). Thierry Moss (de REALTIME FOREX), JM Druart ( de FOREX OFFICE) pour laide quils mont apporte dans la rdaction des chapitres sur les Futures et sur le Forex. Je tiens galement remercier Franck Rougeot et toute lquipe de ProRealTime pour le support quils mont apport dans la programmation des indicateurs, screeners et systmes de trading. Finalement, je noublierai pas de remercier tous les webmestres des sites qui rfrencent mon site personnel (voir page daccueil de anatech2.free. fr), et plus particulirement Alain Weisrock (de PRO-AT) Arnaud Jeulin (de MATAF), Andr Malpel ( de SALONAT) et Isabelle Dubillon (de ENST. AIST. fr). Openmirrors AVANT-PROPOS C ette troisime dition du Guide complet de lanalyse technique vise prsenter lanalyse technique une gamme trs large dinvestisseurs, du simple dbutant au trader le plus aguerri. Les dbutants trouveront dans les premiers chapitres (1 11) tous les outils et mthodes pour grer un portefeuille traditionnel de valeurs mobilires, laide de lanalyse technique. Les investisseurs plus expriments trouveront la fin de louvrage (chapitres 12 17) des techniques spcifiques pour travailler sur les marchs drivs fort effet de levier comme les options, les warrants, les certificats, les Futures et le Forex. Si vous tes nophyte, je vous invite respecter lordre des premiers chapitres (1 4) de manire vous imprgner des concepts importants de supports, rsistance, Moyennes Mobiles et autres figures boursires avant de commencer ltude des indicateurs techniques. Il y a beaucoup gagner bien matriser ces notions fondamentales avant daller plus en avant. Ensuite seulement (chapitre 5), vous pourrez vous consacrer aux indicateurs techniques qui sont couramment utiliss par les professionnels de la bourse. Ils ont diffrentes fonctions comme celle de dtecter ou mesurer une tendance, danticiper des corrections de cours, de mettre en vidence des processus daccumulation ou de distribution de titres sur le march. Vous pourrez bien sr les combiner entre eux et vous forger une opinion sur la qualit technique dune action ou dun indice en accumulant les diffrents signaux positifs ou ngatifs lancs par ces indicateurs. Nanmoins, je vous conseille de ne jamais utiliser les indicateurs techniques de manire isole en obissant aveuglment leurs signaux dachat et de vente mais de toujours les tudier en relation avec la configuration graphique des courbes. Avant-propos x 13 Dans le chapitre 6, nous tudierons un indicateur particulier. lindicateur de Force relative. Cet indicateur permet de slectionner les valeurs qui performent mieux que la moyenne du march, et dobtenir ainsi une meilleure performance que lindice CAC 40. En tendant lanalyse technique dautres marchs que celui des actions, comme celui des obligations, des devises ou des matires premires, je vous propose au chapitre 7 dintroduire galement des notions danalyse conomique dans vos analyses techniques. Vos analyses techniques ne seront plus menes individuellement sur une action ou un march donn, mais globalement sur un ensemble de marchs qui sont tous dune manire ou dune autre relis les uns aux autres. Au chapitre 8, je vous prsenterai certaines techniques bien connues, comme les vagues dElliott ou les retracements de Fibonacci, que je nutilise pas personnellement mais qui font nanmoins partie de la culture de lanalyste technique. Aprs la prsentation de tous ces concepts, je vous proposerai au chapitre 9 une mthodologie pour mener une analyse technique de manire systmatique sur le march actions France. Cest cette mthode que jai mise au point durant ces dernires annes et que je vous propose dappliquer rgulirement, car elle donne de bons rsultats, comme le dmontrent les analyses de performances menes au chapitre 10. Vous trouverez galement dans ce livre un chapitre (11) consacr aux systmes de trading qui permettent lautomatisation des transactions. Vous apprendrez construire quelques systmes simples, optimiser leur performance et protger votre capital, grce des mthodes de gestion du capital partir du chapitre 12, sont abords des sujets plus techniques rservs aux investisseurs aguerris travaillant sur les marchs drivs fort effet de levier. 14 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Les chapitres 12 et 13 dtailleront les techniques spcifiques au maniement des options, des warrants et des certificats. Ces techniques sappuient sur les notions trs importantes de volatilit et permettent la mise en uvre de stratgies de couverture de portefeuilles. Le chapitre 14 dtaillera les principes de lanalyse technique intraday. Cette technique, dlicate manier, est incontournable lorsquon veut aborder les marchs fort effet de levier. les Futures et le Forex. Dans ce chapitre je vous donnerai galement quelques conseils utiles pour positionner de manire optimale des ordres de bourse, dans le cadre dune gestion plus classique dun portefeuille dactions. Aux chapitres 15 et 16, seront abords le march des Futures (contrats terme) et le Forex (march des changes) qui sont des marchs forts effets de levier et pour lesquels la mise en place dun plan de trading rigoureux est indispensable, si lon veut viter le risque de ruine. Je vous parlerai galement, au chapitre 17, de nouveaux concepts en analyse technique bass sur les techniques de traitement numrique du signal. Enfin, au chapitre 18, jeffectuerai (pour les traders dbutants et aguerris) une revue des sites Internet gratuits les plus intressants consacrs lanalyse technique. Grce cette revue, vous pourrez notamment utiliser gratuitement des logiciels danalyse technique trs performants et appliquer immdiatement les conseils de ce livre. Que vous soyez un dbutant ou dj un utilisateur averti de lanalyse technique, je vous souhaite une bonne lecture de cet ouvrage et vous donne rendez vous sur mon site Internet anatech2.free. fr pour toute question ou commentaire que vous pourriez avoir propos de ce livre. Avant-propos x 15 Openmirrors CHAPITRE 1 LA PRVISION DES COURS DE BOURSE Peut-on prvoir les cours de Bourse. Depuis que les marchs financiers existent, les investisseurs ont dploy une nergie considrable essayer danticiper leur comportement, et de nombreuses mthodes de prvision ont vu le jour, dont certaines ont fait la richesse et la clbrit de leurs auteurs. Pourtant si certaines mthodes ont pu, un moment donn de lhistoire, se rvler tre bnfiques pour ceux qui les ont utilises, aucune delles na pu se prvaloir dtre infaillible et universelle, et le mythe de la formule magique qui permet de gagner tous les coups a d invitablement tre abandonn. Heureusement pour les marchs financiers dailleurs, dont lessence est base sur la rmunration du risque. Sans risque, point de march. Si donc vous tes la recherche de cette formule magique ou de cette mthode infaillible, ne perdez pas votre temps lire cet ouvrage. Vous ne la trouverez pas ici. Ni dans aucun autre livre dailleurs Dans ce livre, je vais en revanche tenter de vous apprendre effectuer un diagnostic sur une valeur un peu comme un mdecin effectue un diagnostic sur ltat de sant dun patient dont il a la charge: grce lobservation en continu dun certain nombre de rsultats dexamens, il peut surveiller jour par jour lamlioration ou au contraire la dgradation de ltat de sant de celui-ci. Il ne peut jamais coup sr La prvision des cours de Bourse x 17 prvoir que son patient va sen sortir ou au contraire mourir, mais il sait, grce lanalyse comparative des rsultats de ces examens, que celui-ci est en train de se rtablir ou au contraire de devenir plus malade. Avec lanalyse technique, vous allez effectuer un diagnostic sur ltat de sant du march, et pourrez connatre ses chances de rtablissement ou au contraire de rechute. Grce ce diagnostic, vous pourrez donc laccompagner dans ses phases haussires ou le quitter dans ses phases baissires et dvelopperez ainsi une stratgie statistiquement gagnante , qui vous permettra en particulier de positionner vos ordres dachat et de vente dans le temps de manire plus fiable et plus efficace. Rappelez-vous bien que lanalyse technique ne constitue pas une mthode de prvision infaillible. Un march faiblement haussier nest en effet jamais labri dune rechute face des vnements extrieurs trs dfavorables. De mme un march faiblement baissier peut tout moment retrouver suffisamment dnergie pour refaire surface sil est suffisamment bien soign par lenvironnement extrieur. Mais lexamen scrupuleux et rgulier des courbes vous permettra le plus souvent de dtecter temps ces retournements inattendus, et vous permettra ainsi de limiter vos pertes au minimum. Les outils de lanalyse technique. les graphes Afin deffectuer notre diagnostic technique , nous avons besoin de donnes qui refltent ltat de sant du march financier. Les cours dactions et leur volution dans le temps fournissent mieux que toute autre donne cette mesure, car ceux-ci dcoulent directement de loffre et de la demande prsente, et intgrent non seulement les informations disponibles sur la place financire (y compris les informations fondamentales) mais aussi la manire dont ces informations sont ressenties et interprtes par les oprateurs, comme le montre la figure 1. 18 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Openmirrors Figure 1: Les paramtres qui dterminent les cours des actions et leurs volutions Les volumes de transactions changs chaque jour (ou chaque semaine) donnent, par ailleurs, la mesure de lactivit prsente et permettent de dterminer si les mouvements la hausse ou la baisse sont le fait dun dsquilibre momentan de loffre et de la demande, sans grande consquence prvisible pour lvolution long terme de laction (volumes faibles), ou si au contraire ils rsultent dune modification de consensus importante de la part dun groupe dinvestisseurs avertis (volumes plus importants qu lordinaire). En effet, chaque transaction est compose simultanment dun achat et dune vente et les volumes de transactions reprsentent simplement le nombre de changements de mains pour le titre ngoci. Ainsi, des volumes importants accompagnant une hausse des cours doivent tre interprts comme des mouvements de position vers des investisseurs soudainement optimistes qui sont prts payer le titre plus cher pour lobtenir (les vendeurs sont matres). Des volumes importants accompagnant des baisses des cours doivent tre interprts comme un dsengagement significatif de positions de la part de vendeurs soudainement pessimistes au profit dacheteurs opportunistes. On comprend donc lintrt de suivre en parallle lvolution des cours qui mesurent ltat du march et ses mouvements, et celle des volumes qui mesurent les forces sous-jacentes lorigine de ces mouvements. La prvision des cours de Bourse x 19 Le choix dune mthode de reprsentation Le suivi de lvolution des cours et volumes peut tre effectu de nombreuses manires, en utilisant diffrents modes de reprsentations, comme par exemple les diagrammes en Points et Figures, mthode ancienne mais encore utilise, ou encore les diagrammes en btonnets ou ceux en chandeliers. Nous nous contenterons ici de trois mthodes de reprsentation classiques qui prsentent le grand avantage dtre simples et explicites, y compris pour les noninitis. La reprsentation des cours sous forme continue (figure 2), qui trace lvolution des cours de clture en fonction du temps, accompagne des volumes de transactions journaliers reprsents, eux sous forme de barres dhistogrammes: plus les barres sont hautes, plus les volumes de transactions sont importants, cest--dire plus lactivit pour la valeur est importante. Figure 2. La reprsentation des cours sous forme continue 20 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors La reprsentation sous forme de btonnets (ou encore Bar-Charts), accompagns de lhistogramme des volumes. Cette reprsentation schmatise lvolution dune sance boursire de la manire suivante (voir figure 3). une barre verticale est dabord trace du cours le plus bas au cours le plus haut de la sance. sur la gauche de cette barre est trac un tiret qui reprsente le cours douverture de la sance sur la droite de cette barre est trac un tiret qui reprsente le cours de clture de la sance. Figure 3. La reprsentation des cours sous forme de btonnets Elle permet une meilleure reprsentation de la lutte entre acheteurs et vendeurs au cours de la sance, que la simple reprsentation du cours de clture. Pour schmatiser, on pourrait dire que la reprsentation en Bar-Charts est une sorte de rsum de film de chaque sance, alors que la reprsentation en cours de clture est une photographie prise la fin de chaque sance. La reprsentation en Bar-Charts est videmment plus riche en information que la reprsentation en cours de clture. Un exemple de reprsentation en Bar-Charts journaliers est donn par la figure 4. La prvision des cours de Bourse x 21 Figure 4. La reprsentation des cours en Bar-Charts journaliers Les Bar-Charts peuvent tre utiliss pour reprsenter la variation des cours sur une semaine, ou sur un mois. Dans ce cas les cours douverture, clture, plus haut, plus bas sont relatifs la priode choisie (dbut et fin de semaine pour des Bar-Charts hebdomadaires, dbut et fin de mois pour des Bar-Charts mensuels). Ce mode de reprsentation est donc particulirement utile pour des prvisions long terme, car il offre linvestisseur une vision sur une chelle de temps plus longue que celle propose par le prcdent (la semaine au lieu du jour). Il intressera par consquent davantage les investisseurs que les professionnels de salle de march. La reprsentation des courbes dvolution en chandeliers japonais (figure 5). cest une variante intressante de la reprsentation en Bar-Charts journaliers. Dans cette reprsentation, les cours douverture et clture dlimitent le corps du chandelier, cest--dire sa partie paisse. Le corps est prolong par des traits fins (ombres) qui stendent jusquaux cours minimum et maximum. 22 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Lorsque la sance est haussire (cours de clture suprieur au cours douverture), le chandelier est reprsent avec un corps vide. Lorsque la sance est baissire (cours de fermeture infrieur au cours douverture), le chandelier est reprsent avec un corps plein. Figure 5. La reprsentation des cours en chandeliers japonais La priode reprsente par un chandelier peut tre indiffremment une sance, une semaine ou un mois. Un exemple de reprsentation hebdomadaire en chandeliers japonais est donne par la figure 6. Figure 6. Exemple de reprsentation hebdomadaire des cours en chandeliers japonais La prvision des cours de Bourse x 23 Dans cette figure les chandeliers doivent tre interprts comme suit (figure 7). Figure 7. Interprtation des chandeliers japonais Les histogrammes de volumes reprsentent les volumes hebdomadaires changs pour la valeur, cest--dire la somme sur une semaine des volumes journaliers. Comme nous le verrons au chapitre 4, la reprsentation en chandeliers japonais donne naissance des figures qui sinterprtent classiquement sur un, deux ou trois (quelquefois quatre) chandeliers. Ces figures sont dune meilleure fiabilit lorsque la priode reprsente par un chandelier est plus grande. Cest galement la priode de reprsentation la mieux adapte une position investisseur et cest pourquoi la reprsentation en chandeliers japonais hebdomadaires sera la reprsentation la plus utilise dans cet ouvrage. Nous utiliserons par contre la reprsentation en cours de clture journaliers ou en chandeliers japonais journaliers pour mettre en vidence des comportements techniques chelle de temps plus courte. Le choix dune chelle Les trois types de reprsentation prcdents nous montrent lvolution des cours avec une chelle linaire, cest--dire une chelle qui respecte lvolution des valeurs de cours. Il existe cependant une autre faon de reprsenter lvolution des cours, en utilisant une chelle semi-logarithmique. 24 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Dans une chelle linaire, 1 cm de lchelle des cours reprsente toujours la mme quantit daccroissement du cours (par exemple 20 euros), alors qu1 cm dune chelle semi-logarithmique reprsentera toujours la mme quantit daccroissement relatif (par exemple 5 ). L chelle semi-logarithmique devra donc de prfrence tre utilise lchelle linaire lorsquon souhaite mesurer la performance (cest-dire la progression relative) dun investissement sur une longue priode. Cest dailleurs pour cette raison que lchelle semi-logarithmique est trs utilise par les boursiers (mais pas par les spcialistes en analyse technique), qui sintressent davantage aux rendements quaux variations brutes des valeurs. Il est possible de reprsenter une courbe en cours de clture en BarCharts et en chandeliers japonais indiffremment avec une chelle linaire ou logarithmique. La figure 8 ci-dessous donne par exemple une reprsentation en Bar-Charts hebdomadaires avec chelle logarithmique. Figure 8. Reprsentation des cours en Bar-Charts hebdomadaires avec chelle logarithmique La prvision des cours de Bourse x 25 Nous prfrerons nanmoins lchelle linaire chaque fois que des objectifs de hausse et de baisse doivent tre fixs de manire absolue, ce qui est le cas par exemple des figures de lanalyse graphique (chapitre 4) qui fixent des objectifs de hausse ou de baisse de manire absolue (hausse de 50 euros par exemple) et non en valeur relative (hausse de 10 par exemple). De ce fait, nous rencontrerons dans cet ouvrage presque exclusivement des reprsentations avec chelle linaire. 26 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors CHAPITRE 2 NOTIONS DE SUPPORT ET DE RSISTANCE La mmoire du march La notion de support ou de rsistance est lie la mmoire de march. Tout se passe en effet comme si le march (cest--dire les investisseurs, en fait) gardait en mmoire les cours maximaux et minimaux atteints par un titre dans le pass, ceux-ci se comportant, vis--vis des cours, comme des paliers plus ou moins infranchissables. On distingue les lignes de support, qui sont des droites horizontales sur lesquelles les cours en baisse viennent rebondir pour crotre nouveau, et les lignes de rsistance qui sont des droites horizontales sur lesquelles des cours en hausse viennent rebondir avant de baisser nouveau. Une ligne de support est donc un obstacle la baisse dun cours tandis quune ligne de rsistance est un obstacle sa hausse (figure 9). Figure 9. Droites de support et de rsistance Notions de support et de rsistance x 27 Tracer des droites de support et de rsistance Pour tracer des droites de support ou de rsistance sur une courbe reprsentant les cours de clture de chaque sance, il suffit de rechercher tous les alignements horizontaux de points qui sont un cours identique ou voisin. Il nest pas indispensable que les cours de ces points aient exactement la mme valeur pour pouvoir tracer une droite de support ou de rsistance: on peut tolrer un cart sur les cours qui dpend de la priode dobservation de la courbe. Ce qui est important est que la droite trace entre ces deux points soit approximativement horizontale. On parle donc plus volontiers de zone de support et de rsistance que de valeur de support et de rsistance. Figure 10. Exemple de droites de support et de rsistance Un bon exemple de support et de rsistance est fourni par la figure 10 ci-dessus, qui reprsente lvolution des cours de clture de LVMH de septembre 97 septembre 98. Sur cette figure, on voit nettement que des lignes de support se sont tablies vers les 25 euros en dcembre 97 et janvier 98 et vers 31 euros en avril-mai 98, tandis quune ligne de rsistance sest forme vers les 38 euros. Comme on le voit galement, les cours de clture de mars 98 sont un peu infrieurs 38 euros, 28 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors mais la rsistance 38 est prsente, car le cours de laction ne parvient pas franchir cette zone. Figure 11. Exemple de droites de support et de rsistance sur chandeliers japonais Dans la reprsentation en chandeliers japonais (figure 11), on note que la zone de rsistance est monte 38,5 tandis que la zone de support est descendue 24,5. L explication en est simple: la reprsentation en Bar-Charts (ou chandeliers) fait apparatre les cours minima et maxima des sances, ce que ne fait pas la reprsentation en cours de clture. Elle est donc plus prcise. Pour tracer des droites de support et de rsistance sur une courbe en Bar-Charts ou chandeliers japonais on peut tracer les alignements sur les cours maxima des chandeliers pour les droites de rsistance et les alignements sur les cours minima des chandeliers pour les droites de support. On peut galement tracer les alignements sur les cours de clture ou douverture. On peut mme rechercher des alignements sur des combinaisons cours de clture, maxima et minima, comme dans lexemple dAlcatel (figure 12). Notions de support et de rsistance x 29 Openmirrors Figure 12. Exemple de droites de support et de rsistance partir des cours de clture, maximum et minimum Les forces de march prs dune rsistance Prenons le cas dune action qui, aprs une progression la conduisant dans la zone des 150 euros, subit une baisse la ramenant dans la zone des 100 euros. Aprs une stabilisation relativement courte ce dernier cours, laction repart la hausse pour atteindre nouveau une valeur proche de 150 euros (figure 13). Figure 13. lapproche dune rsistance, loffre devient plus importante 30 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Examinons alors le cas de deux investisseurs ayant pris des dcisions dachat des moments diffrents: le premier (investisseur A) a achet laction alors quelle valait 150 euros, car il pensait ce moment-l que laction avait un potentiel de hausse. La suite des vnements lui ayant donn tort, sa raction probable sera dessayer de rattraper son erreur ds que possible. La remonte de laction dans la zone des 150 euros va lui donner une occasion de liquider sa position et notre investisseur A risque de devenir vendeur en ce point, alors que quelque temps auparavant il tait acheteur ce cours. Le second (investisseur B) vient dacheter 100 euros un titre qui valait quelques mois auparavant 150 euros. Voyant la progression du titre atteindre 150 euros, cest--dire la valeur maximale atteinte sur une priode rcente, celui-ci sera tent de vendre ce niveau, afin de raliser un profit au moins sur une partie de sa position, quitte subir un manque gagner si laction poursuit sa hausse au-del de 150 euros. Ainsi, plus on approche dun niveau qui a dj constitu dans le pass un sommet de la courbe des cours (ici, la rsistance 150 euros), plus loffre devient importante, tandis que la demande seffrite car les investisseurs se souviennent que laction est son plus haut historique: en ce point la tendance haussire risque de se transformer en tendance baissire. On dit quune rsistance la progression des cours stablit. Sur une ligne de rsistance loffre devient plus importante que la demande. Franchissement de la rsistance L tablissement dune zone de rsistance provient dun consensus de la part des oprateurs, qui considrent pendant une priode assez longue que laction ne vaut pas plus de 150 euros. Ce consensus peut Notions de support et de rsistance x 31 provenir des rsultats dune analyse fondamentale ou macro-conomique. Peu importe dailleurs, car lanalyste technique sait que 150 euros constitue la valeur maximale que les investisseurs sont prts payer pour lobtenir, et il ne savisera pas lacheter ce prix tant que celuici constituera une rsistance la progression des cours. Il est toutefois possible, pour des raisons inconnues de lanalyste, que cette rsistance soit soudain franchie la hausse. Cette situation constitue une nouveaut dans la vie de laction, car loffre importante existant sur la ligne de rsistance vient dtre satisfaite par une demande encore plus importante: pour certains investisseurs avertis, le consensus qui consistait ne pas payer laction plus de 150 euros est rompu. Peut-tre sont-ils en possession dinformations confidentielles ou anticipent-ils de bons rsultats, peu importe nouveau, car lanalyste technique sait quen perant sa rsistance la hausse, laction vient de dmontrer quelle est lobjet dun intrt certain pour des investisseurs avertis. Plus les volumes de transactions sont importants au moment de la traverse de la rsistance, plus lintrt manifest par le groupe des nouveaux acqureurs est grand. Plus forte est donc la rupture de consensus qui consistait ne pas payer laction au-del de sa valeur de rsistance. Ce franchissement la hausse de cette rsistance (figure 14), sil seffectue dans de bons volumes de transactions (2 3 fois la moyenne des volumes constats jusqualors), constitue donc pour lanalyste technique un signal dachat, indpendamment des raisons qui ont pu susciter ce franchissement. L exprience ma montr que les raisons qui ont conduit ce franchissement sont rarement connues au moment de celui-ci, mais le sont beaucoup plus tard, quand laction a dj effectu une belle avance. 32 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 14. Franchissement de rsistance la hausse Un lment technique explique quun dpassement de rsistance conduise une progression ultrieure importante pour laction. la demande qui stait effondre lapproche de la rsistance va rapparatre car ceux qui ont vendu sur la ligne de rsistance vont sapercevoir de leur erreur et vont vouloir se racheter, amplifiant ainsi la demande existante. La courbe dAlcatel (figure 15) est un parfait exemple de franchissement dune forte rsistance 18 euros, sur de bons volumes de transactions. La hausse qui sen est suivie a permis ceux qui ont utilis ce signal dengranger une plus-value suprieure 75 . Les forces de march prs du support Prenons le cas dune action qui, aprs une baisse la conduisant dans la zone des 200 euros, subit une progression la ramenant dans la zone des 250 euros. Aprs une stabilisation relativement courte ce dernier prix, laction repart la baisse pour atteindre nouveau une valeur proche de 200 euros (figure 16). Notions de support et de rsistance x 33 Figure 15. Exemple de franchissement dune forte rsistance Figure 16. lapproche dun support, la demande devient plus importante 34 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Un support. lieu de consensus Un oprateur qui cherche investir va trouver dans cette situation lopportunit de ramasser laction historiquement bon prix. ce cours laction est considre comme attrayante, et fera vraisemblablement lobjet dune demande importante. Son cours a de grandes chances de progresser, comme il la dj fait dans le pass. Ceux qui lavaient vendue par le pass ce cours et avaient manqu une belle plus-value auront galement envie de retenter leur chance cette occasion, ce qui gnrera une demande supplmentaire. Ainsi, plus on approche dun niveau qui a dj constitu, dans le pass, un minimum de la courbe des cours (ici, le support 200), plus la demande devient importante, tandis que loffre seffrite car les vendeurs considrent que laction vaut plus que 200 euros, et ne sont plus vendeurs ce prix: en ce point, la tendance baissire risque de se transformer en tendance haussire. L tablissement dun support fait appel au mme mcanisme que celui dune rsistance. Dans les deux cas, il stablit un consensus de la part dun groupe dinvestisseurs pour dire que la valeur est trop chre au prix courant (cas dune rsistance) ou quelle est bon march (cas dun support). Dans le cas de la rsistance, ce consensus provient dun groupe de vendeurs qui ont une perception ngative du march. Dans le cas dun support, le consensus provient dun groupe dacheteurs optimistes. Sur une ligne de rsistance, la demande devient plus importante que loffre. Une rsistance franchie la hausse devient un support Reprenons lexemple de la figure 14 sur laquelle la rsistance 150 vient dtre franchie la hausse. Notions de support et de rsistance x 35 Basculement support-rsistance Cette valeur risque, dans lavenir, de devenir son tour une valeur de support: en effet, tout mouvement ultrieur la baisse, conduisant le cours de laction dans la zone des 150 euros, suscitera des achats de la part des investisseurs qui lont vendue prcdemment (trop tt) ce prix, et qui trouveront une opportunit de rattraper leur erreur dans ce retour dans la zone des 150 euros. Une ligne de support sinstallera donc de fait au niveau de lancienne rsistance. Limportance des volumes dans la force dun support Ce mouvement de rattrapage sera dautant plus important quil existait sur la ligne de rsistance un grand nombre de vendeurs (offre importante). L observation des volumes de transactions lors du premier franchissement de la rsistance fournit cette indication. Figure 17. Franchie la hausse, une rsistance devient support 36 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors La courbe de la figure 17 nous montre par exemple un franchissement de rsistance de Galeries Lafayette en fvrier 2004 sur de bons volumes de transactions. Cette rsistance, une fois franchie, devient jusquen avril une ligne de support pour laction. Un support franchi la baisse devient une rsistance Repartons de la figure 16 et imaginons que le support 200 euros soit franchi la baisse. Cette valeur a de grandes chances de constituer une rsistance la progression ultrieure des cours. En effet sur la ligne de support un grand nombre doprateurs ont achet et se sont tromps. Ils trouveront dans tout retour du cours dans la zone des 200 euros une opportunit de rattraper leur erreur et se feront vendeurs ce cours. Une ligne de rsistance sinstallera donc de fait au niveau de lancien support (voir figure 18). Figure 18. Franchissement de support la baisse La courbe du Groupe Gascogne (figure 19) nous donne lexemple dun support 90 franchi en Octobre 2004. Cette valeur de 90 devient une rsistance ds le dbut de 2005. Notions de support et de rsistance x 37 Figure 19. Franchi la baisse, le support devient rsistance La qualit dune rsistance ou dun support Il existe plusieurs critres pour valuer la qualit dune rsistance (ou dun support), cest--dire sa capacit jouer son rle et de ne pas tre franchi: Les volumes. nous avons vu quune rsistance (ou support) qui existait un endroit donn provenait de loffre (demande) potentielle qui existait ce cours, et de la quantit dactions achetes (vendues) prcdemment ce prix. Le critre des volumes sera donc le premier prendre en compte pour estimer la force dune rsistance (dun support). Une rsistance o quelques centaines de titres ont t changs naura pas la mme force quune rsistance qui est lobjet de plusieurs dizaines de milliers de transactions. Une bonne mthode pour visualiser cette force est de reprsenter les volumes de transactions suivant laxe des ordonnes (axe des cours), afin de dterminer les cours qui font lobjet de transactions importantes (figure 20). Sur cette figure on distingue nettement la 38 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors zone de rsistance-support 94 et 72 euros et la zone de support 90, qui font toutes les deux lobjet de volumes importants sur laxe vertical. Figure 20. Support, rsistance et volumes de transactions En pratique on constate que lorsquun cours sapproche dune bonne rsistance (ou support), les volumes de transactions dcroissent lentement son approche, signe que les acheteurs (vendeurs) se retirent car ils anticipent un renversement de tendance. Si les volumes sont trop importants lors de lapproche, il est peu probable que la rsistance (ou le support) joue son rle. Au moment prcis o un cours atteint une valeur de support ou de rsistance, laction est gnralement lobjet dimportantes transactions, car ces valeurs correspondent aux seuils dintervention dinvestisseurs qui attendent un renversement de tendance. Cette situation est reflte par des volumes de transactions plus importants qu lordinaire (2 3 fois plus) au point de contact. Il suffit pour sen convaincre daller consulter les carnets dordres dune sance pour sapercevoir quun nombre important dordres dachats attendent bien sagement leur excution aux cours de support, alors quun nombre important de ventes est plac un cours de rsistance. Notions de support et de rsistance x 39 Openmirrors La frquence: le deuxime critre prendre en compte est la frquence dapparition de la rsistance (ou du support) dans le temps. Plus celle-ci est importante, plus le consensus qui consiste ne pas payer plus cher (ou vendre moins cher) que la valeur de rsistance (ou du support) est important, et bien ancr dans la mmoire collective. Plus difficile sera donc le franchissement de ces seuils psychologiques (voir figure 21). Figure 21. La frquence doccurence de la rsistance (ou du support) renforce celle-ci (ou celui-ci) L ge: lge dune rsistance (ou dun support) est galement un critre prendre en compte pour valuer sa qualit. Une rsistance (ou un support) datant dun an possde incontestablement une efficacit suprieure une rsistance vieille de 4 ans. Cela ne signifie pas que la rsistance de 4 ans a perdu son potentiel, mais tout simplement quelle est moins ancre dans les mmoires que la rsistance rcente. En fait, plus une rsistance est ancienne, plus elle a eu lopportunit dtre franchie et plus elle a de chances davoir perdu de sa force. Les seuils: Pour quune rsistance (ou un support) soit efficace, il faut galement que le cours de laction se soit suffisamment loign de la zone de rsistance (ou de support), afin que les acheteurs (vendeurs) se rendent compte quils ont effectivement commis une erreur en lachetant (vendant), et quils soient prts liquider leur position ds que les cours sapprocheront nouveau de cette zone. En pratique, on considre quun dcalage de 3 entre le cours et la rsistance (ou le support) doit avoir t atteint pour que celle-ci puisse pleinement jouer son rle. 40 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Il en rsulte les rgles dachat et de vente suivantes (voir figure 22). Achat lorsque le cours devient suprieur de 3la valeur de rsistance. Vente lorsque le cours devient infrieur de 3la valeur de support. Figure 22. Rgles dachat et de vente en fonction dun seuil de franchissement de rsistance et du support Les valeurs justes. le fait quune valeur atteigne un cours qui tombe juste , comme 100 euros ou 600 euros, peut entraner la cration dune rsistance (ou support) de fait. Par exemple, au moment de lachat dune valeur 72 euros, il est vraisemblable quun grand nombre dinvestisseurs se sont fixs comme objectif de la vendre 100 euros, tout simplement parce que ce cours est un chiffre rond, facile retenir. Au moment o la valeur atteindra 100 euros, il est vraisemblable que la valeur fera lobjet dune offre plus importante qu lordinaire. Si le march est lui-mme peu enthousiaste ce moment-l, la demande risque dtre insuffisante pour satisfaire loffre croissante, et le cours commencera baisser. la valeur de 100 euros constituera une valeur de rsistance de fait. Si des rsistances ou supports possdent tous les critres numrs ci-dessus, ils ont de grandes chances dtre efficaces, et il est possible pour le professionnel des salles de march, intress par les profits court terme, de prendre position lachat sur les bons supports, et la vente sur les bonnes rsistances, et deffectuer ainsi des aller et retour profitables entre ces diffrents cours. Cette stratgie nest Notions de support et de rsistance x 41 cependant applicable que pour des carts suffisamment importants entre support et rsistance, afin que la plus-value dgage soit suprieure au total des frais de transactions. L investisseur intress par les profits plus long terme attendra au contraire les franchissements de ces valeurs seuils, qui caractrisent des modifications importantes de consensus. Le mouvement attendu (hausse ou baisse) sera dautant plus fort que la qualit du support ou de la rsistance tait grande et que les volumes de transactions sont importants au moment du franchissement (2 3 fois la moyenne constate jusqualors). Deux exemples de stratgies sur support et rsistance Examinons la courbe dIngenico, (figure 23). Au dbut de lanne 97 une zone de rsistance sest installe vers 8 euros. Cette rsistance est franchie sur de bons volumes dbut mai: on achte 8,25 pour tenir compte du seuil de 3 . (cf. ci-dessus) Figure 23. Supports, rsistances et stratgies (Ingenico) 42 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors La valeur de 8,5 devient un support de mai dbut juin 97. on conserve la valeur. Dbut juin, la valeur senvole sur de bons volumes de transactions et une zone de rsistance se forme aux alentours de 11 de juin septembre: on peut vendre une partie des positions (gain de lordre de 30 ). En octobre Ingenico franchit son support 9,75: on vend la totalit des positions 9,5 en tenant compte du seuil de 3 (gain de lordre de 12 ). De novembre 97 janvier 98, un support sinstalle 7,75: on achte nouveau des titres 8. De fvrier mars 98 une rsistance sinstalle nouveau 10,5: on vend une partie des positions. Fin mars la rsistance est franchie dans de bons volumes: on achte nouveau des titres. La courbe dAccor (figure 24, page suivante) permet dadopter une autre stratgie: En fvrier 1997, Accor casse sa rsistance 22 sur de bons volumes de transactions: achat 22,5. L action monte jusqu 36, o elle tablit une rsistance, de novembre 97 fvrier 98. vente dune partie de la position 35 (56 de gains). Fin fvrier 98, la courbe dAccor casse sa rsistance 36: on rachte des titres 37. De juillet aot 98, laction tablit une rsistance 54. On vend une partie de la position. Notions de support et de rsistance x 43 En aot, Accor casse son support 48: on vend la totalit de la position. Figure 24. Supports, rsistances et stratgies (Accor) Quelques principes retenir Une rsistance soppose la progression des cours. Elle constitue un lieu o loffre est importante et o une hausse des cours sinverse en baisse des cours. Un franchissement la hausse dune rsistance constitue un signal dachat. Nanmoins, ce signal doit, pour tre efficace, se trouver confirm par des volumes de transactions plus importants qu lordinaire. Plus les volumes sont importants au franchissement, plus le titre a de chances de progresser ensuite. Une valeur de rsistance franchie la hausse devient une valeur de support. 44 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Un support soppose la baisse du cours. Il constitue un lieu o la demande est importante et o une baisse des cours sinverse en une hausse des cours. Un franchissement la baisse dun support constitue un signal de vente et ne ncessite pas obligatoirement des volumes importants pour tre valid. Le cours peut en effet tout simplement seffondrer par manque dacheteurs, sans quil y ait une pression de vente importante. Une valeur de support franchie la baisse devient une valeur de rsistance. Plus les valeurs de support ou de rsistance ont t rencontres dans le pass et ont fait lobjet de transactions importantes, plus elles joueront leur rle respectif, et donc plus les signaux dachat ou de vente lors des franchissements seront valides. Notions de support et de rsistance x 45 Openmirrors CHAPITRE 3 NOTIONS DE TENDANCE MOYENNES MOBILES Droites de tendance L existence de supports ou de rsistances est le fait de consensus qui stablissent sur une priode de temps plus ou moins longue. Pour certaines actions, il arrive que ces priodes de consensus soient de courte dure, ceux-ci tant revus constamment la hausse ou la baisse. La courbe de Ciments Franais (Figure 25) nous montre par exemple le franchissement successif de plusieurs rsistances sur de bons volumes de transactions, celles-ci devenant, une fois franchies, des supports constamment revus la hausse. Figure 25. tablissement dune tendance haussire Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 47 Cette croissance des supports peut tre matrialise par le trac dune droite pente positive, quon appelle droite de tendance . qui les relie tous, et qui est en quelque sorte une droite de support dynamique. On dit quil existe une tendance haussire sur une courbe dvolution des cours, lorsquon arrive tracer, sur une certaine priode, une ligne joignant des minima croissants. De mme, il existe des actions qui font, un moment donn, lobjet de consensus constamment revus la baisse. La courbe de Business Objects (Figure 26) nous montre par exemple le franchissement successif de plusieurs supports, ceux-ci devenant, une fois franchis, des rsistances constamment revues la baisse. Ces rsistances, toujours plus basses, peuvent tre relis par une droite pente ngative, quon appelle droite de tendance et qui est en quelque sorte une droite de rsistance dynamique. Figure 26. Etablissement dune tendance baissire 48 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors On dit quil existe une tendance baissire sur une courbe dvolution des cours, lorsquon arrive tracer, sur une certaine priode, une ligne joignant des maxima dcroissants. Dans une tendance baissire, la droite de tendance ainsi dgage, constitue en quelque sorte une ligne de rsistance dcroissante pour les cours, alors que dans une tendance haussire, la droite de tendance croissante joue le rle dun support. On considre quune tendance est significative lorsquelle est constitue au minimum de trois points aligns. Figure 27. Droites de tendances Tout comme les lignes de support ou de rsistance, les lignes de tendance sont le lieu de nombreuses transactions, car elles constituent des consensus de croissance sur lesquels les oprateurs prennent position lachat (tendance haussire) ou la vente (tendance baissire). Sur ces lignes seffectuent donc des rebonds, gnralement accompagns de volumes de transactions importants. Bien souvent, les tendances haussires prsentent la particularit dvoluer lintrieur de canaux dlimits en bas par la ligne de tendance (support) et en haut par une ligne de rsistance qui limite les excursions des cours pendant la phase haussire. Ce phnomne existe galement pour les tendances baissires, qui prsentent quelquefois une ligne de support dcroissante, mais il est moins frquent que pour les tendances haussires. Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 49 Figure 28. volution en canaux Tendances court terme et tendances long terme De mme, on distingue des tendances court terme et des tendances long terme. Une tendance court terme stale typiquement sur un ou deux mois, alors quune tendance long terme peut durer jusqu plusieurs annes. Il est bien sr possible (et mme frquent) dobserver des tendances court terme baissires lintrieur de tendances long terme haussires, et vice versa, comme le montre la courbe de JC Decaux, figure 29. Figure 29. Exemple de tendance haussire long terme et de tendances baissires court terme 50 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Il est important didentifier (de tracer) tous les types de tendance prsents sur un graphe quils soient majeurs (long terme) ou mineurs (court terme). Ceci permet notamment de prendre en compte diffrentes chelles de temps dans lanalyse des courbes, comme nous le verrons au chapitre 9. Perptuation des tendances long terme Lorsquune ligne de tendance haussire majeure, tablie depuis plusieurs mois, est franchie vers le bas, il nest pas rare de voir se former suite ce franchissement, des mouvements de correction haussiers mineurs, parallles la tendance haussire initiale. Ceci est particulirement visible sur la courbe de Bouygues, Figure 30, o lon peut voir quatre corrections haussires mineures perptuer le mouvement de la tendance haussire majeure initiale. Figure 30. Exemple de corrections haussires mineures suite au franchissement dun mouvement haussier majeur Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 51 Ceci sexplique par le fait que le consensus haussier, qui sest tabli sur une longue priode, est rest mmoris chez les investisseurs. Celui-ci se rtablit ds quun doute apparat sur la tendance en cours. Ce phnomne de mmoire de march est tout fait comparable celui que nous avons dcrit au chapitre prcdent pour les supports et rsistances. Ce principe est galement valable pour des tendances baissires majeures qui tendent se perptuer dans des mouvements de correction baissiers mineurs, comme nous pouvons le voir sur la courbe de BOUYGUES figure 31. Figure 31. Exemple de corrections baissires mineures suite au franchissement dun mouvement baissier majeur Le trac systmatique des parallles aux tendances majeures partir des points de retournement est donc recommand en analyse technique car cest une mthode trs utile pour prvoir les tendances court terme dun titre donn. 52 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Les Moyennes Mobiles Si le trac des tendances est gnralement assez facile effectuer, il existe des cas o celui-ci nest pas possible, soit parce que laction na pas de tendance relle, soit parce que les maxima ou minima ne sont pas suffisamment aligns. La courbe Bonduelle, figure 32 est caractristique de cet tat de fait: mme sil nest pas possible de tracer sur cette courbe de vritables lignes de tendances, on voit nettement que laction prsente des phases haussires et baissires en alternance. Pour les mettre en vidence, il est ncessaire de recourir aux moyennes mobiles. Figure 32. Lorsque les droites de tendances sont difficiles tracer, il faut recourir aux Moyennes Mobiles Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 53 Les Moyennes Mobiles linaires Une Moyenne Mobile (MM) linaire est une courbe calcule partir des moyennes des cours de laction sur une priode donne (gnralement 20, 50, 100 ou 200 points). chaque point dune Moyenne Mobile sur 100 points (MM100) reprsente la moyenne des 100 derniers cours de laction. Pour calculer lensemble des points de la courbe MM5, il suffit donc de prendre 5 points de la courbe des cours, den effectuer la moyenne et de rpter lopration en dcalant le groupe de points moyenner dune sance boursire jour aprs jour, do le nom de Moyenne Mobile donn cette courbe. Figure 33: Principe de calcul dune Moyenne Mobile linaire sur 5 sances (MM5) Cette courbe, affiche simultanment avec la courbe dvolution des cours, permet, de par la fonction de moyennage, dliminer toute variation journalire de laction qui peut tre considre comme non significative, et donc de dgager une tendance pour laction. On dit quune Moyenne Mobile lisse les variations de cours et quelle constitue une courbe de tendance pour la valeur. Les Moyennes Mobiles peuvent tre calcules sur diffrentes priodes, ce qui permet de dgager des tendances court terme (20 54 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Openmirrors sances), moyen terme (50 100 sances) et long terme (suprieures 200 sances). Quels cours choisir pour le moyennage. Pour calculer une Moyenne Mobile, il faut effectuer la moyenne dun certain nombre de cours intervalles de temps rguliers. Il est important que ces cours soient retenus des instants identiques dune sance pour que la Moyenne Mobile puisse tre reprsente comme une fonction continue du temps. Le choix qui est effectu (dans la grande majorit des cas) consiste choisir le cours de clture de la sance pour le moyennage, car ce cours rsume bien ltat des forces dachat et de vente qui se sont manifestes au cours de la sance. Notez bien que lon aurait tout aussi bien pu choisir le cours douverture de la sance pour calculer la Moyenne Mobile, mais celui-ci ne traduit pas lactivit des changes qui seffectuent pendant une journe de bourse. Tout comme les droites de tendance, les Moyennes Mobiles jouent trs souvent le rle de support ou de rsistance suivant la tendance haussire ou baissire de la courbe. Dans une tendance haussire, la croissance des cours ne seffectue pas de manire continue et constante, mais est au contraire lobjet de nombreuses corrections qui lui donnent lallure dune vague ondulante. Ces corrections qui sont causes par des prises de bnfices partielles aprs chaque progression importante contribuent faire baisser le cours de laction, et le rendre plus attractif pour ceux qui avaient manqu lachat prcdemment. Au voisinage de la Moyenne Mobile 100 jours, le cours se retrouve un niveau correspondant ce quun investisseur aurait dpens sil avait achet une action quotidiennement pendant les 100 derniers jours. Cette situation constitue une opportunit pour ces acheteurs tardifs, ce qui explique que les points de contact avec la Moyenne Mobile soient des lieux o la demande devient importante, et o les cours se remettent crotre. Un raisonnement similaire est bien sr applicable pour une tendance baissire, Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 55 dans laquelle la Moyenne Mobile constitue un lieu o loffre devient importante. Figure 34. Exemple de Moyenne Mobile jouant un rle de support La courbe de Clarins (figure 34) montre bien le rle de support jou par la Moyenne Mobile pendant la phase de croissance de laction. Pendant cette phase, les cours semblent sappuyer sur la moyenne 40 jours (MM40). Notez bien que dans la plupart des cas, la courbe des cours ne colle pas ncessairement la Moyenne Mobile, mais quelle suit ses mouvements une distance relativement courte: la Moyenne Mobile est une zone de support (ou rsistance) pour la hausse (ou la baisse) du cours de laction, plutt quune valeur exacte de support. Un exemple de rsistance jou par une Moyenne Mobile pendant une phase baissire est donn par la courbe de Carrefour (figure 35), o lon voit clairement rebondir les cours la baisse sur la courbe MM 60. 56 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 35. Exemple de Moyenne Mobile jouant un rle de rsistance Signaux dachat et de vente sur Moyenne Mobile Dans une tendance haussire, les minima de la courbe des cours sont croissants et sont situs au-dessus ou au voisinage de la Moyenne Mobile, qui constitue un support leur croissance. Tant que la Moyenne Mobile continue crotre et jouer son rle de support, la tendance haussire est intacte, et laction doit tre conserve, car il existe un consensus pour dire que celle-ci vaut toujours mieux que la moyenne de ses cours antrieurs. La mesure de la pente de la Moyenne Mobile permet de caractriser la force de la tendance. Plus la pente est forte, plus la tendance est marque, et plus laction est sujette des progressions de cours importantes. Dans une tendance baissire, les maxima des cours sont en baisse et situs au-dessous, ou au voisinage de la Moyenne Mobile, qui joue le rle dune rsistance. Tant que la Moyenne Mobile continue dcrotre et jouer son rle de rsistance, la tendance baissire est intacte, et Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 57 laction ne doit pas tre achete, car il existe un consensus pour dire que celle-ci vaut toujours moins que la moyenne de ses cours antrieurs. Lorsque la Moyenne Mobile est plate, il y a absence de tendance: nous sommes alors soit dans une phase de fondation qui succde une phase baissire soit dans une phase de consolidation qui succde une phase haussire. Au cours de ces phases, un consensus se met en place chez les investisseurs pour stabiliser le prix de laction dans une zone dlimite par un cours de support et un cours de rsistance. Les phases de fondation ou de consolidation sont donc des phases qui permettent aux investisseurs de rflchir avant de reprendre position la hausse ou la baisse. La surveillance de la pente de la Moyenne Mobile et de la position de la courbe des cours vis--vis de cette Moyenne Mobile permet donc de savoir dans quelle phase se trouve laction: phase haussire, phase de consolidation, phase baissire ou phase de fondation. Diffrents signaux dachat et de vente peuvent tre tirs de cette observation: Volumes de transactions Figure 36. Exemple de signal dachat Si la ligne des cours traverse vers le haut la Moyenne Mobile plate, et que celle-ci devient haussire, cela signifie que laction est en train de quitter une zone de fondation ou une zone de consolidation: cest un signal dACHAT. Ce signal, pour tre valid, doit tre nanmoins accompagn dune augmentation sensible des volumes de transactions (2 3 fois la moyenne constate jusqualors). 58 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Volumes de transactions Figure 37. Le pull-back confirmation du signal dachat Si, aprs franchissement de la Moyenne Mobile, une correction conduit les cours au voisinage de la Moyenne Mobile (mais en restant au-dessus de celle-ci): confirmation du signal dachat. Ce mouvement est connu sous le nom de Pull-Back (ou retour) et est la preuve quune zone de support est en train de stablir autour de la Moyenne Mobile. Ce signal est dautant plus valide quil seffectue peu de temps aprs le franchissement de la Moyenne Mobile et que les volumes de transactions sont faibles pendant la phase de correction. Figure 38. Faux signal de vente Tant que la Moyenne Mobile est croissante et quelle continue jouer son rle de support pour laction. conservez la valeur. Si les volumes de transactions relevs sur une tendance haussire (notamment lors des points de contact avec la Moyenne Mobile) sont importants, alors la tendance a de grande chance de se perptuer. renforcez vos positions. Si la Moyenne Mobile est traverse vers le bas, alors quelle continue crotre. restez investi. Le temps de vendre nest pas encore atteint, et il sagit vraisemblablement dune mauvaise adaptation passagre entre loffre et la demande. Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 59 Volumes de transactions Figure 39. Signal de vente dune partie de la position Si la Moyenne Mobile commence saplatir et que simultanment apparassent une zone de rsistance sur les sommets des cours et une diminution de lactivit (volumes): liquidez une partie de votre position. Une zone de consolidation est en train de se former et peut durer un certain temps avant de dboucher sur une phase haussire ou baissire. Pendant ce temps, investissez une partie de votre capital sur des actions mieux configures techniquement. Ne liquidez pas toute votre position, car la consolidation peut galement dboucher sur une nouvelle phase haussire. Volumes de transactions Figure 40. Exemple du signal de vente Si les cours traversent vers le bas la Moyenne Mobile relativement plate, qui commence dcrotre, cela signifie que lon est en train de quitter la phase de consolidation et que les investisseurs ont fait le choix de la baisse: cest un signal de vente. Ce signal est valide, indpendamment des volumes de transactions qui peuvent tre mdiocres. Mon 60 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors exprience ma montr que les volumes de transactions taient bien souvent assez faibles au dmarrage dune tendance baissire, et quils augmentaient statistiquement aux 23 de celle-ci. Cette forte monte des volumes, qui apparat vers la fin de la tendance baissire, sexplique par la monte dun sentiment de panique chez une partie des investisseurs (la plupart du temps, les petits porteurs) qui ralisent que leur action na plus aucune chance de remonter et qui se rsignent la vendre. Cette situation est compltement diffrente pour une tendance haussire dont le dmarrage ncessite des volumes plus importants qu lordinaire. Volumes de transactions Figure 41. Rebond sous rsistance Si, aprs franchissement de la Moyenne Mobile, une correction conduit les cours au voisinage de la Moyenne Mobile (mais en restant au dessous de celle-ci). confirmation du signal de vente. Ce signal montre que la Moyenne Mobile est en train de former une rsistance pour les cours. Ce signal est dautant plus valide que la correction seffectue sur des volumes de transactions faibles. Figure 42. Faux signal dAchat Tant que la Moyenne Mobile continue dcrotre et constituer une rsistance pour les cours: ne pas investir. Si la Moyenne Mobile est traverse vers le haut, alors quelle continue dcrotre: nachetez pas. Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 61 Le temps dacheter nest pas encore venu. Il faudra attendre que les conditions de la figure 34 se manifestent avant de le faire. Toutes ces phases peuvent tre rsumes sur la figure 43 qui reprsente un cycle thorique pour une valeur, incluant une phase de fondation (phase 1), une tendance haussire (phase 2), une phase de consolidation (phase 3) et une tendance baissire (phase 4). Toutes les valeurs ne respectent pas lintgralit de ce cycle, qui doit tre davantage considr comme un moyen mnmotechnique pour visualiser les zones dachat et de vente que comme un modle immuable et universel. Volumes de transactions Figure 43. Cycle thorique du cours dune action Rglage de la Moyenne Mobile Le rglage de la Moyenne Mobile doit en principe tre fait pour chaque action, car les actions nont pas toutes la mme volatilit. On procde gnralement de la manire suivante: on choisit pour chaque courbe plusieurs valeurs de Moyennes Mobiles et lon retient celle qui constitue la meilleure enveloppe pour la courbe, cest--dire celle qui a jou le mieux le rle de support et de rsistance dans le pass de laction. On utilise pour cela des courbes dune anne dhistorique au minimum. 62 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Il est possible que loptimum pour les supports (en tendance haussire) ne concide pas avec loptimum pour les rsistances (en tendance baissire). on a alors le choix entre retenir une valeur moyenne entre ces deux valeurs ou afficher simultanment les deux Moyennes Mobiles. Dune manire gnrale, les Moyennes Mobiles MM50 conviennent parfaitement pour la plupart des valeurs du Premier March, dans une optique investisseur . Un trader, intress par des changements frquents de positions et souhaitant saisir toutes les opportunits de hausse et de baisse, utilisera les Moyennes Mobiles MM5 et MM20. Mais attention, ces frquents aller et retour conduisent une augmentation des frais de transactions, qui peuvent annuler les profits acquis. L approche trader nest vritablement recommande que si lon opre avec de trs faibles frais de transactions. Moyennes Mobiles en reprsentations graphiques journalire et hebdomadaire Il est videmment possible de tracer les Moyennes Mobiles aussi bien en reprsentation journalire quen reprsentation hebdomadaire. Dans une reprsentation journalire, la longueur de la Moyenne Mobile fait rfrence au nombre de sances moyennes. Dans une reprsentation hebdomadaire, la longueur de la Moyenne Mobile fait rfrence au nombre de semaines moyennes. Si lon souhaite avoir une reprsentation quivalente de la Moyenne Mobile dans les deux modes de reprsentation, il sera ncessaire de diviser la longueur de la Moyenne Mobile par 5 (qui reprsente le nombre moyen de sances par semaine), pour passer dune reprsentation journalire une reprsentation hebdomadaire. Sur lexemple de la figure 44, on peut noter que la longueur de la Moyenne Mobile est de 30 (sances) en reprsentation journalire et de 6 (semaines) en reprsentation hebdomadaire. Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 63 Figure 44. Moyennes mobiles en reprsentations journalire et hebdomadaire Moyennes mobiles pondres et exponentielles Il existe dautres manires plus complexes de calculer la Moyenne Mobile dune valeur que deffectuer simplement une moyenne linaire sur ses cours. 64 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors La premire est deffectuer une pondration des cours en privilgiant les cours les plus rcents par rapport aux cours les plus anciens. Pour cela, on multiplie les cours de la valeur C(t) par des coefficients a(t), dautant moins importants que les cours sont anciens, et lon divise par la somme des coefficients de pondration. La moyenne linaire pondre se calcule de la manire suivante: Ma(t).C(t)a(t-1).C(t-1) a(1).C(1)a(t)a(t-1) a(1), avec a(t) a(t-1)a(1) La seconde, qui permet de simplifier le calcul de pondration, est base sur le concept de la Moyenne Mobile exponentielle. Le calcul de la Moyenne Mobile exponentielle seffectue de manire itrative. La Moyenne Mobile exponentielle au jour t se dduit de la Moyenne Mobile exponentielle calcule la veille (t-1) par la formule suivante: MME (t) MME (t-1) K (C (t) MME (t 1)) o MME (t) Moyenne Mobile exponentielle la date t, MME (t-1) Moyenne Mobile exponentielle la date (t 1), C (t) cours de clture la date t, K cfficient de pondration qui dpend de la longueur n de la MME: K 2n 1. En fait la formule est assez simple comprendre. Pour calculer une Moyenne Mobile exponentielle la date t, on rajoute la MME calcule la veille une quantit proportionnelle lcart entre cette moyenne et le nouveau cours de clture. La particularit de la Moyenne Mobile exponentielle par rapport la Moyenne Mobile linaire que nous avons tudie prcdemment est quelle accorde (comme la Moyenne Mobile pondre) plus dimportance aux cours rcents quaux anciens et quelle colle donc mieux la courbe des cours en cas de forte variation de celle-ci. Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 65 Openmirrors Nous pouvons facilement nous en rendre compte si nous traons simultanment sur un mme graphe une Moyenne Mobile linaire et une Moyenne Mobile exponentielle de mme longueur. Figure 45. Moyenne Mobile linaire et Moyenne Mobile exponentielle La courbe de France Telecom (figure 45) est reprsente simultanment avec une Moyenne Mobile linaire et une Moyenne Mobile exponentielle 40 sances. Comme on peut le constater, le comportement des deux Moyennes Mobiles est trs voisin, la Moyenne Mobile exponentielle collant un peu plus la courbe des cours. Dans une Moyenne Mobile linaire 50 jours tous les cours ont un poids quivalent dans le calcul de la Moyenne Mobile, que ce soit celui qui date de 50 sances ou celui qui date dhier. Dans une Moyenne Mobile exponentielle, linfluence du cours qui date de 50 sances est ngligeable par rapport celle du cours de la veille. 66 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Faut-il choisir une Moyenne Mobile linaire ou exponentielle. Le choix entre une Moyenne Mobile linaire ou exponentielle ne se pose que pour les Moyennes Mobiles courtes (dont les longueurs sont infrieures 50 sances). En effet, nous avons vu que pour les Moyennes Mobiles exponentielles, linfluence des cours anciens sur le calcul de la moyenne tait ngligeable. Par consquent, si lon veut utiliser des Moyennes Mobiles longues (suprieures 20 sances), il vaut mieux utiliser des Moyennes Mobiles linaires. Cest ce type de moyennes que nous retiendrons dans la suite de cet ouvrage (sauf si cela est explicitement mentionn), car il est bien adapt la position investisseur. Si lon sintresse aux Moyennes Mobiles courtes et que lon est donc davantage un professionnel des salles de march, on pourra retenir les Moyennes Mobiles exponentielles qui collent mieux la courbe des cours et donnent plus rapidement des signaux dachat ou de vente. Optimiser la dcision dachat Comme nous lavons vu au chapitre prcdent, il faut, pour quune rsistance ou un support soit efficace, que le cours de laction se soit suffisamment loign de cette valeur seuil pour que celle-ci puisse efficacement jouer son rle. Ce principe est bien videmment applicable aux Moyennes Mobiles qui jouent pendant les phases haussire et baissire le rle respectif de support et de rsistance. Cest pourquoi un signal dachat sur Moyenne Mobile ne sera considr effectif que si les cours dpassent la Moyenne Mobile de 3 , alors quun signal de vente sur Moyenne Mobile ne deviendra effectif que si les cours sont plus bas de 3 par rapport la Moyenne Mobile (figure 46). Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 67 Figure 46: Signal dachat et de vente sur Moyenne Mobileet 3 Cette technique seuils a linconvnient de faire perdre un peu de marge lachat ou la vente, mais prsente limmense avantage dliminer des faux signaux dus des oscillations de cours au voisinage de la Moyenne Mobile. Elle conduit globalement de meilleures performances que la mthode sans seuils. Stratgies sur Moyennes Mobiles Sur la courbe hebdomadaire de CASINO GUICHARD (Figure 47), on peut noter la mise en place dune tendance haussire caractrise par la traverse, en mai 2004, de la MM20 (20 semaines, soit 100 sances) par la courbe des cours sur de bons volumes de transactions et dun pull-back, un mois aprs (achat 62). Jusquen janvier 2004, la MM20 joue son rle de support, date partir de laquelle, la valeur rentre dans une phase de consolidation. Une rsistance stablit 85 (vente dune partie de la position avec un gain de 30 ) En juin 2004, la valeur casse son support 78 et traverse la baisse sa Moyenne Mobile: vente de la totalit de la position 75 avec un gain de 22 . 68 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 47. Exemple de stratgie base sur la Moyenne Mobile et les notions de support et rsistance Sur la courbe de SAGEM (figure 48), la stratgie est encore plus simple, car il ny a pas de phase de consolidation. Dbut janvier 98, la Moyenne Mobile MM15 (15 semaines) qui jouait jusqualors un rle de rsistance est franchie vers le haut sur de trs bons volumes de transactions: signal dachat 5. La MM15 est franchie vers le bas au mois daot et constitue partir de cette date une rsistance la progression des cours: signal de vente 7.5. Notez bien que dans ce cas, il tait ncessaire dattendre que la Moyenne Mobile commence se comporter comme une rsistance 7.5 et attendre fin aot pour vendre, car laction navait pas effectu de consolidation. Notions de tendance Moyennes Mobiles x 69 Figure 48. Exemple de stratgie base sur la Moyenne Mobile seule 70 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors CHAPITRE 4 LES FIGURES DE LANALYSE TECHNIQUE L analyse technique utilise galement le reprage de diffrentes figures ou motifs qui sont prcurseurs de hausse ou de baisse pour les valeurs. Trs prises par les dbutants en analyse technique, les figures doivent tre manies avec prcaution et ne doivent pas tre lobjet dinterprtations abusives. La dtection de figures doit pour cela toujours tre conforte par dautres analyses, dont une analyse des tendances, et une observation des volumes. Elles doivent galement tre analyses en prenant en compte la tendance gnrale du march (surtout pour les figures de doute) qui influence leur probabilit de ralisation. Il est possible de classer les figures chartistes en trois catgories: Les figures de retournement, les figures de continuation et les figures de doute. Les figures de retournement sont caractrises par le fait que la tendance la sortie de la figure est inverse par rapport ce quelle tait son entre. Dans une figure de continuation, la tendance la sortie de la figure est la mme qu son entre. Dans une figure de doute, on ne sait pas a priori quelle sera la tendance la sortie de la figure, celle-ci pouvant se comporter indiffremment comme une figure de continuation ou de retournement. La tendance ne sera effectivement connue qu la sortie de la figure lorsque les cours se seront suffisamment loigns delle. Jai choisi de vous prsenter, dans chaque catgorie, les figures les plus connues et les plus fiables de lanalyse technique. En limitant ma Les figures de lanalyse technique x 71 prsentation quelques figures, jaurai davantage loccasion dexpliquer leurs conditions de ralisation, leurs variantes et les objectifs de gain ou de perte quon peut en attendre, et donc dtre plus complet et prcis. la fin de ce chapitre, jaborderai galement les figures sur chandeliers japonais et les Gaps, qui sont des figures chance de temps plus courte que les figures prcdentes, et qui permettent daffiner les dcisions dachat et de vente. Les figures de retournement La figure en tte et paules (ETE) Grand classique de lanalyse technique, cette figure est ainsi nomme parce quelle prsente vaguement la forme dune silhouette humaine avec une tte au centre, encadre de deux paules trs arrondies. Elle est caractrise par des volumes importants sur la premire paule, des volumes plus faibles sur la tte, et des volumes trs faibles, voire insignifiants, sur la dernire paule. Cette figure est la figure type de retournement, qui conduit trs souvent une baisse sensible des cours. Elle se forme toujours la suite dune tendance haussire trs marque et sa dure typique de formation est de deux semaines un an. Volumes de transactions Figure 49. Tte et paules 72 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors La probabilit de baisse est forte partir du moment o les cours franchissent vers le bas la ligne de cou , qui se comporte comme une droite de support pendant la formation de la figure. L objectif de baisse probable sobtient en reportant vers le bas, partir du franchissement de la ligne de cou, la hauteur de la tte mesure partir de la ligne de cou. Figure 50. Exemple caractris dune figure tte et paules La figure 50 nous montre la constitution dun trs beau tte et paules sur Technip. Ici lobjectif de baisse (25 euros) a t atteint et dpass. Nous allons tenter dexpliquer ici le mcanisme de formation dune figure de ttes et paules en prenant lexemple (un peu caricatural) dun groupe dinvestisseurs disposant de moyens importants susceptibles dinfluer sur le cours dune valeur. Pour cela, prenons le cas dune valeur qui fait lobjet dun certain intrt pour un groupe dinvestisseurs avertis, alors que son cours vaut actuellement 50 euros. Parce quil est bien inform (et a les liquidits Les figures de lanalyse technique x 73 de surcrot), ce groupe dinvestisseurs souhaite se constituer massivement acqureur de cette valeur, dans lobjectif de la revendre 80 euros et dempocher une plus-value substantielle. Afin de ne pas trop faire grimper les cours pendant la phase dacquisition, ils prennent soin dacheter la valeur des moments o loffre est importante (on dit quils accumulent la valeur). Figure 51. Mcanisme de formation de la figure tte et paules Aprs quelque temps, alors que le cours de la valeur commence progresser du fait de lpuisement de loffre, des rumeurs commencent circuler sur son possible ramassage . Dautres analystes intrigus par cette situation commencent leur tour sintresser elle, et la trouver attractive. Alors que les bonnes nouvelles et les bonnes analyses commencent fleurir, la valeur approche le niveau des 80 euros, cours auquel nos investisseurs initiaux vont commencer vendre. Ils vont pouvoir le faire car la valeur jouit dune aura financire , mais vont devoir tre encore plus discrets et prudents dans cette phase de distribution quils ne lont t pendant la phase daccumulation . Leur attitude va consister adapter loffre la demande existante en fournissant sur le march des titres petit petit sans provoquer dexcs doffre, ce qui conduirait une baisse brutale des cours et nuirait leur dessein. Au bout dun certain temps, la demande pour la valeur va rgresser car des acheteurs potentiels vont sentir que loffre augmente et raliser quil est peut-tre plus judicieux de diffrer lachat des titres. Cette baisse de la demande va conduire les cours se stabiliser et mme rgresser sous leffet de prises de bnfices. La premire paule est forme. 74 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Lorsque nous approchons nouveau la zone des 80 euros, sous leffet de cette correction passagre, nos investisseurs nont pas encore liquid toute leur position, et ils vont prendre soin de stopper toute vente dans cette zone (future ligne de cou) pour soutenir la valeur ce cours et viter sa chute en de de 80 euros. Si besoin est, ils rachteront la valeur pour relancer la demande afin de pouvoir liquider compltement leur position. Ce mcanisme de soutien va engendrer la deuxime partie de la figure: la tte. la fin de la formation de la tte, la position vendeur de nos investisseurs est entirement liquide, et la valeur de 80 euros va une dernire fois jouer son rle de support pour quelques traders tardifs et peu nombreux, et donner naissance la dernire paule. Celle-ci seffectuera nanmoins dans des volumes incomparablement plus faibles que ceux observs durant la formation de la premire paule. la fin de la formation de la dernire paule, il nexiste pratiquement plus de force dachat pour soutenir la valeur, car la demande initiale gnre par nos investisseurs aviss a disparu. Si la ligne de cou (support) est franchie vers le bas, laction a donc de grandes chances de baisser significativement, ce qui survient dans 80 des cas. Cet exemple, mme sil est un peu caricatural, explique bien le mcanisme de distribution de positions en deux temps, ncessaire pour remettre sur le march un grand nombre de titres accumuls pendant une phase haussire: pour renverser une tendance haussire significative, il faut du temps et du volume. Il est peu important que ce mcanisme de distribution soit lorigine dun groupe particulier dinvestisseurs, ou de lensemble des investisseurs du march, qui agit de manire moins organise. Les conditions de validation dun tte et paules Pour tre valide, une figure en tte et paules doit comporter deux paules de tailles voisines et une tte plus haute que chacune dentre elles. La plupart du temps, les figures en tte et paules offrent donc une symtrie des cours par rapport la tte. Les figures de lanalyse technique x 75 Il nest pas obligatoire que la ligne de cou soit horizontale, mais sa pente doit rester dans des limites raisonnables ( 15 ) pour que la figure soit valide. Les volumes sur la dernire paule doivent galement tre moins importants que ceux observs sur la premire paule et sur la tte. Les volumes sont gnralement dcroissants au cours de la formation de la figure, mais il arrive quils soient dun niveau comparable (et mme suprieurs) sur la tte par rapport ceux de la premire paule. Lesprance de baisse dun tte et paules L esprance de baisse dun tte et paules, cest--dire la probabilit dobtenir une forte baisse la sortie de la figure, dpend des paramtres suivants: Le temps ncessaire pour sa formation: plus celui-ci est grand, plus la figure est susceptible de conduire des baisses significatives. Les figures de renversement ncessitent en effet du temps et du volume pour se raliser. Les figures les plus fiables sont celles qui stendent sur des priodes de 2 3 mois, les figures plus courtes tant gnralement moins fiables. La hauteur de la tte par rapport la ligne de cou: plus celleci est importante, plus lamplitude de la baisse sera importante. Les figures les plus fiables sont celles dont la hauteur de la tte est approximativement le double de celle des paules, les distances tant mesures par rapport la ligne de cou. Une grande hauteur de tte ne conduit pas a priori une meilleure fiabilit pour la figure. La rondeur des formes. des formes arrondies sur la tte, les paules et sur la ligne de cou sont des facteurs influenant favorablement la ralisation de la figure. La dcroissance des volumes au cours de la formation de la figure: si les volumes sont plus faibles sur la tte que sur la premire paule, (et bien sr plus faibles encore sur la dernire paule), la fiabilit de la figure est augmente. 76 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Le rle de la ligne de cou: aprs formation de la figure, il est possible que les cours ne seffondrent pas immdiatement aprs le franchissement de la ligne de cou mais quils restent au voisinage de celle-ci. La ligne de cou peut alors jouer le rle dune rsistance (ancien support franchi vers le bas), situation qui nentame en rien le potentiel de baisse de la figure, qui est simplement retarde. Les variantes du tte et paules Le tte et paules renvers: le tte et paules renvers est, comme son nom lindique, la figure inverse de la figure prcdente. Cest donc une figure de retournement dune tendance baissire en tendance haussire qui prsente une grande analogie avec le tte et paules classique, lexception des volumes qui ne suivent pas la mme loi dvolution. Dans un tte et paules renvers, les volumes doivent en effet tre importants sur la dernire paule pour que la figure puisse gnrer une hausse significative. En particulier, les figures les plus fiables sont celles qui prsentent des volumes importants la traverse de la ligne de cou, qui agit ici comme une rsistance. On retrouve ici la rgle selon laquelle une rsistance doit tre vaincue sur des forts volumes, pour conduire une hausse significative, tandis quun percement de support peut seffectuer sur des volumes insignifiants. Hormis lexception relative aux volumes, les conditions de ralisation sont identiques pour les deux figures. Ceci vaut galement pour lobjectif de hausse probable, qui sobtient en reportant vers le haut, la sortie de la figure, la hauteur de la tte mesure partir de la ligne de cou. Volumes de transactions Figure 52. Tte et paules renvers Les figures de lanalyse technique x 77 La figure 53 ci-dessous nous montre un bon exemple de tte et paules renvers sur gophysique. Figure 53. Exemple de tte et paules renvers Le tte et paules avec ligne de cou incline: dans cette figure, la symtrie par rapport la tte est quelque peu casse par une inclinaison de la ligne de cou. La fiabilit de cette figure nest pas pour autant entame, condition que les conditions suivantes soient respectes: Volumes de transactions Figure 54. Tte et paules avec ligne de cou incline le sommet de la deuxime paule doit rester plus bas que la tte (sinon, nous naurions pas de tte et paules). 78 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors la pente de la ligne de cou ne doit pas dpasser 15 le contact avec la ligne de cou la sortie de la tte doit intervenir sensiblement plus bas que le sommet de la premire paule (cas dune ligne de cou croissante). La rgle qui fournit lobjectif probable de baisse est applicable pour une ligne de cou incline: lobjectif se calcule toujours en reportant, partir du franchissement de la ligne de cou, la hauteur de la tte mesure partir de cette ligne de cou. Ceci montre quune ligne de cou dcroissante, souvent interprte comme une faiblesse de laction, conduit une baisse plus importante de laction depuis le haut de la figure quune ligne de cou croissante. Le double tte et paules. cette figure a la particularit de prsenter deux paules de part et dautre de la tte, au lieu dune (voir figure 55). Le reprage de cette figure est assez dlicat, et il nest pas rare de vendre trop tt en oubliant la constitution de la dernire paule. Figure 55. Double tte et paules Les lois concernant la formation de cette figure sont voisines de celles du tte et paules classique. Plus particulirement, la symtrie de la figure par rapport la tte doit tre totalement observe: les hauteurs des paules doivent correspondre deux deux, dans lordre de leur formation. Il nest par contre pas ncessaire que les lignes de cou de chaque couple dpaules concident. L exprience montre quelles sont parallles la plupart du temps. Les figures de lanalyse technique x 79 Compte tenu du temps ncessaire sa formation et des volumes de transactions mis en jeu, on pourrait sattendre ce que cette figure soit dune force suprieure au tte et paules classique. En fait, lexprience montre quil ny a pas plus attendre dun double tte et paules que dun simple, en termes de fiabilit ou dobjectifs de baisse. Statistiquement, les doubles ttes et paules possderaient mme une esprance de baisse plus faible La courbe de Danone (figure 56) est un bon exemple de double tte et paules, chelonn sur six mois. Figure 56. Exemple de double tte et paules chelonn sur six mois 80 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Les autres figures de retournement Dautres figures de retournement jouent un rle important en analyse technique, bien quelles ne prsentent pas toutes la mme puret et fiabilit que les ttes et paules. Ce sont: Les soucoupes et soucoupes renverses Ces figures de renversement se rencontrent gnralement sur des actions prsentant un cours trs bas. Leur apparence rappelle celle dun bol assez plat et arrondi ou celle dune soucoupe, dont la dure de formation stend sur plusieurs longs mois. Cette figure est la figure caractristique des renversements lents, dclenchs par des phnomnes daccumulations progressives, utiliss par quelques acheteurs aviss qui souhaitent ramasser laction bas prix. Volumes de transactions Figure 57. soucoupe Au bout dun certain temps, le phnomne de renversement sacclre, les cours commencent dcoller de la soucoupe qui leur servait de support et les volumes augmentent sensiblement. Cette situation constitue un signal dachat pour lanalyste technique. Un bon exemple de soucoupe est donn par la courbe de Renault (figure 58). Les figures de lanalyse technique x 81 Figure 58. Exemple de soucoupeLe double sommet La figure en double sommet est encore appele en W renvers et se prsente sous la forme de deux bosses, gnralement bien arrondies, avec dimportants volumes sur la premire bosse et des volumes plus faibles sur la deuxime. Les doubles sommets se dveloppent typiquement sur deux ou trois mois, ce qui les diffrencie des figures de consolidation qui prsentent des maxima beaucoup plus rapprochs. Le signal de vente est donn lorsque les cours franchissent vers le bas le creux de la figure, qui agit dans cette figure comme un support. L objectif de baisse sobtient en reportant la hauteur du W renvers partir de la ligne de support. La courbe de BNP Paribas (figure 59) ci-dessous donne un bon exemple de figure en W renvers avec un objectif minimum de baisse 5 euros. 82 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Openmirrors Figure 59. Exemple de double sommet ou W renversLa figure en W Cest la figure inverse de la prcdente. Elle doit, pour constituer un signal dachat efficace, comporter dimportants volumes sur la dernire bosse, comme le dmontre Saint-Gobain ci-dessous. L objectif de hausse sobtient en reportant la hauteur du W partir de la ligne de rsistance. Les figures de lanalyse technique x 83 Figure 60. Exemple de figure en W Le triple sommet Le triple sommet est une variante de la figure en tte et paules avec une tte et les deux paules au mme niveau. Dans cette figure, la courbe des cours vient tester trois fois intervalles rguliers et sans la traverser la zone de rsistance qui sest cre sur le premier sommet, avant de repartir la baisse, une fois la ligne de cou franchie vers le bas. L objectif de baisse minimal, mesur par rapport la ligne de cou, est gal la hauteur des sommets par rapport cette mme ligne de cou. Dans cette figure, les volumes de transactions doivent dcrotre sur chaque nouveau sommet cr pour favoriser la ralisation de cette figure. 84 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 61. Exemple de triple sommet Sur la courbe de LVMH, figure 61, on voit la constitution dune figure trois sommets sur la valeur de rsistance 45.5 euros accompagne de volumes de transactions dcroissants sur chaque nouveau sommet. La ligne de cou (support) 43 euros est franchie la baisse mi-aot. La baisse qui sensuit est suprieure 2.5 euros qui est la hauteur des sommets mesure par rapport la ligne de cou. Le triple creux Le triple creux est une variante de la figure en tte et paules invers avec une tte et les deux paules au mme niveau. Dans cette figure, la courbe des cours vient tester trois fois intervalles rguliers et sans la traverser, la zone de support qui sest cre sur le premier creux, avant de repartir la hausse une fois la ligne de cou franchie la hausse. L objectif de hausse minimal, mesur par rapport la ligne de cou, est gal la profondeur des creux mesure par rapport cette mme ligne de cou. Les figures de lanalyse technique x 85 De bons volumes de transactions sur le troisime creux ouet la traverse de la ligne de cou influencent favorablement la ralisation de cette figure. Figure 62. Exemple de triple creux Sur la courbe dAlstom, figure 62, on voit la constitution dune figure en triple creux imparfaite, car les creux de la figure ne sont pas espacs rgulirement. On note de bons volumes de transactions lors de la reprise sur le troisime creux, ce qui permet la ralisation de lobjectif de hausse (qui est denviron 3 euros). Le diamant La figure du diamant est la figure de retournement la plus difficile dceler. Elle est compose dun coin divergent (A, B, C) avec des maxima et minima sloignant rgulirement, suivi de la formation dun coin convergent (B, C, D). Les volumes sont gnralement importants pendant la constitution de la figure, surtout dans la partie divergente. la sortie du diamant, la tendance est inverse par rapport son entre, comme le montre la courbe Christian Dior, figure 63. 86 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 63. Exemple de diamant Les figures de continuation (ou de consolidation) Lorsque le cours dune action varie trop rapidement ( la hausse ou la baisse), il atteint une valeur pour laquelle les forces qui ont t lorigine de ce mouvement ont compltement disparu. L action entame alors un renversement de tendance, ou ragit un bon support, ou plus frquemment consolide sa position en entamant une figure compose de fluctuations mineures, jusqu ce quelle rcupre avant de reprendre sa tendance initiale. Cest ce dernier type de comportement qui est lorigine des figures de continuation. L une des figures de continuation les plus frquentes est incontestablement le drapeau (Flag en amricain) et sa variante, le biseau . Les drapeaux se forment la suite de mouvements de hausse importants et discontinus: aprs le front de monte des cours ( le mt du Les figures de lanalyse technique x 87 drapeau), le prix de laction corrige alors la baisse en voluant dans un canal lgrement descendant de courte dure et de faible amplitude ( loriflamme). Les volumes sont toujours dcroissants au cours de la correction et toujours plus faibles que ceux observs sur le mt du drapeau. Volumes de transactions Figure 64. Le drapeaula sortie du drapeau, la tendance haussire est conserve, et celleci redmarre gnralement brusquement, sur de forts volumes, laissant un autre drapeau lopportunit de se dvelopper La formation dun drapeau au cours dune phase haussire est donc loccasion pour un investisseur avis de conserver et mme de complter sa position dachat. Trs souvent, les lieux de sortie de la figure o la tendance haussire redmarre correspondent des zones de support reconnues, comme les Moyennes Mobiles, ainsi que le montre la courbe de Altran Technologies (figure 65). Ces lieux doivent donc tre lobjet dune attention particulire pour lanalyste technique. 88 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 65. Exemple de drapeaux Les drapeaux se rencontrent galement dans des tendances baissires, o ils ont une forme renverse. Trs souvent, dans ce cas, ils font lobjet dune variante, caractrise par un rtrcissement du canal de correction et qui est lorigine dune autre figure: le biseau. Volumes de transactions Figure 66. Le biseau Les biseaux se forment la suite de mouvements de baisse importants et discontinus: aprs une chute brusque des cours, le prix de laction corrige momentanment la hausse lintrieur dun canal ascendant, se rtrcissant progressivement. Les volumes de transactions Les figures de lanalyse technique x 89 Openmirrors observs pendant la correction sont toujours dcroissants. Cette caractristique importante est trs utile pour distinguer les biseaux des canaux ascendants, qui ncessitent, eux, une activit importante (volumes) pour continuer exister. Trs souvent, les lieux de sortie de la figure o les cours se remettent dcrotre correspondent des zones de rsistance reconnues, comme les Moyennes Mobiles, ainsi que le montre la courbe Gophysique, figure 67. Figure 67. Exemple de biseaux Les drapeaux et les biseaux sont certainement, parmi les figures de continuation, celles qui sont les plus rpandues et les plus fiables. Dautres figures de continuation jouent galement un grand rle en analyse technique, bien quelles naient pas la mme fiabilit: ce sont les triangles rectangles. 90 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Dans ces figures, les cours oscillent entre une droite horizontale et une droite incline. On distingue deux types de triangles rectangles suivant le signe de linclinaison de la pente: les triangles de rsistance et les triangles de support. Dans un Triangle support , encore appel triangle descendant (voir figure 68), les minima des cours viennent buter sur une droite horizontale de support, alors que les maxima dcroissent sur une droite de tendance baissire (rsistance). Cette figure est gnralement une figure de vente, le signal tant donn lorsque la ligne des cours vient croiser la droite de support vers le bas. Le signal sera dautant plus fiable que les cours couperont la ligne de support aux 23 de sa longueur. Dans un Triangle rsistance , encore appel triangle ascendant (voir figure 68), les maxima des cours viennent buter sur une droite horizontale de rsistance, alors que les minima croissent selon une droite de tendance haussire. Cette figure est gnralement une figure dachat, le signal tant donn lorsque la ligne des cours vient croiser la droite de rsistance vers le haut. Le signal sera dautant plus fiable que les cours couperont la ligne de rsistance aux 23 de sa longueur. Figure 68. Les triangles rectangles, rsistance et support L objectif de hausse (ou de baisse) dun triangle ascendant (descendant) sobtient en reportant lamplitude des variations de cours lentre du triangle (hauteur h) partir du point de sortie de la figure (Figure 69). Les figures de lanalyse technique x 91 Objectif dun triangle ascendant Objectif dun triangle descendant Figure 69. Objectifs dtermins partir des triangles rectangles Pour tre valide, cet objectif doit tre atteint avant que les prolongements des deux branches du triangle ne se rencontrent (point A de la figure 70). Le cours doit monter de h avant le point A Figure 70. Objectif de hausse Un bel exemple de triangle ascendant nous est donn par la courbe de Bouygues, figure 71. Sur cette courbe on voit bien la formation dun triangle rectangle avec une ligne de support haussire, qui est un prolongement de la ligne de tendance dj en place, et une ligne de rsistance vers les 70 euros. Cette dernire est franchie dbut Fvrier sur de bons volumes de transactions, ce qui permettra laction datteindre son objectif de hausse valu 86 euros. 92 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 71. Exemple de triangle ascendant Le reprage des figures de continuation est trs utile pour lanalyste technique, car il lui permet de conforter son diagnostic de tendance, effectu par exemple sur des critres de Moyenne Mobile. Il lui permet galement, en cas de diagnostic tardif, de reprendre position la fin de la figure de continuation, alors quun autre mouvement important est vraisemblablement en prparation Les figures de doute Les figures de doute traduisent lincertitude des investisseurs face un titre qui ne prsente pas une grande visibilit court terme. Ces figures se dveloppent par exemple peu de temps avant la publication des rsultats, et plus gnralement avant tout vnement susceptible davoir un impact sur les rsultats de la socit, et dont lissue nest pas connue lavance (regroupements, conflits sociaux, procs, dcisions dinvestissements) Les figures de lanalyse technique x 93 Ces figures sont caractrises par une paralysie progressive des mouvements des cours autour dune valeur moyenne de consensus, associe une rarfaction des transactions (baisse des volumes). Ce phnomne sexplique par le fait que les investisseurs prfrent diffrer leur dcision dachats ou de ventes, en attendant den savoir plus sur une situation quils jugent floue. Le triangle symtrique (voir figure 72) est cet gard la figure de doute la plus typique et la plus rpandue: lissue dun mouvement de hausse (ou de baisse) important, les cours se mettent osciller entre deux droites symtriques par rapport laxe des cours, sur une priode allant de 2 4 semaines typiquement, avec des mouvements de plus en plus faibles et rapides et des volumes dcroissants. Avant que le triangle se referme, les cours sortent brusquement de la zone de compression, ce qui a souvent valu cette figure une analogie avec un ressort qui se dtend aprs avoir t comprim. Volumes de transactions Figure 72. Le triangle symtrique Il nest gnralement pas possible de savoir lavance, dans quel sens les cours vont sortir de la figure, celle-ci pouvant se comporter indiffremment comme une figure de retournement ou une figure de continuation. Les mouvements la sortie du triangle symtrique sont par contre toujours brusques et de forte amplitude, et il est gnralement possible lanalyste technique de prendre position lachat ou la vente ds les premiers mouvements dacclration, faisant sortir les cours du triangle. 94 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Les faux signaux sont rares, et les cours continuent presque toujours leur mouvement suivant limpulsion initiale. Regardez, cet gard le trs beau triangle symtrique sur Euronext, figure 73, et sa sortie fortement haussire. Figure 73. Exemple de triangle symtrique Dans quelques cas rares, les cours, aprs leur sortie du triangle, restent au voisinage de la zone de formation de la figure, pour ensuite sinverser. Il existe alors un moyen pour lanalyste de reprer que la figure ne ralise pas son objectif: si, peu de temps aprs la sortie de la figure, les cours refluent en traversant une des lignes du triangle (prolonges), alors le signal est invalid (voir figure 74). Les figures de lanalyse technique x 95 Volumes de transactions Figure 74. Invalidation du signal en sortie de triangle symtrique Les figures sur chandeliers japonais Les figures sur chandeliers japonais se dveloppent classiquement sur un, deux ou trois (quelquefois quatre) chandeliers. Ce sont des figures plus court terme que les figures que nous avons tudies prcdemment. Il faut donc les tudier dans un deuxime temps aprs le reprage des figures long terme. Dune manire gnrale, je conseille toujours de dmarrer une analyse technique par une analyse long terme: il faut dabord dgager les caractristiques globales dune courbe (supports, rsistances, tendances, figures,) puis sintresser aux dtails. Les figures sur chandeliers doivent tre analyses au niveau du dtail et non du global. L exprience ma montr que les figures sur chandeliers japonais ont une fiabilit plus grande lchelle hebdomadaire qu lchelle journalire, et cest donc ce type de reprsentations que je privilgie dans ma mthode (voir chapitre 9). Dune manire gnrale, je ne recommande pas dutiliser ces figures comme des signaux de dclenchement dachats ou de ventes. Je conseille plutt dutiliser leur reprage comme des balises: lapparition de plusieurs chandeliers baissiers (haussiers) sera un signe quune phase baissire (haussire) est en train de se prparer. L entre en phase baissire (haussire) ne sera valide que lors du franchissement de la Moyenne Mobile ou dun support (rsistance) reconnu. 96 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Il existe une multitude de figures et configurations sur chandeliers japonais qui portent des noms potiques ou exotiques. Vous trouverez ci-dessous une slection des figures les plus connues. Le Pendu ou le Marteau: Figure dinterruption ou de renversement de tendance. Les Pendus ou les Marteaux sont des chandeliers sans ombre haute et dont le corps est petit par rapport lombre basse. Ils peuvent avoir un corps vide (sance haussire) ou plein (sance baissire), mais doivent avoir une ombre basse au moins deux fois plus longue que le corps. ou Un pendu se forme dans une tendance haussire, et sa prsence marque gnralement la fin de cette tendance haussire, celle-ci pouvant laisser la place une phase de consolidation ou une phase baissire. La validation de cette figure apparat lorsque le chandelier qui suit le pendu est un chandelier baissier ( corps plein): Un marteau se forme dans une tendance baissire et sa prsence marque gnralement la fin de cette tendance baissire, celle-ci pouvant laisser la place une phase de fondation ou une phase haussire. La validation de cette figure apparat lorsque le chandelier qui suit le marteau est un chandelier haussier ( corps vide): Les figures de lanalyse technique x 97 Un pendu ou un marteau sont dautant plus fiables que lombre basse est grande par rapport la dimension du corps. On peut observer un pendu sur la figure 75 (Socit Gnrale). Ici, le pendu interrompt la tendance haussire initie fin Septembre et cre de fait une zone de rsistance 60 euros. Figure 75. Exemple dinversion de tendance suite lapparition dun pendu On peut observer galement un marteau avec une reprsentation en chandeliers journaliers sur la figure 76 (NESTL). Sur cette figure, on voit nettement le renversement dune tendance baissire en tendance haussire suite lapparition dun marteau au mois doctobre. noter que le marteau, qui est une figure haussire, ne doit pas ncessairement tre dot dun corps vide (sance haussire) pour tre efficace, comme le dmontre cet exemple. 98 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 76. Exemple de marteau qui interrompt une tendance baissire Le Recouvrement Haussier: Figure haussire Un recouvrement haussier apparat dans une tendance baissire ou dans une phase de fondation et est compos de deux chandeliers. Le premier chandelier a un corps plein (sance baissire) et le deuxime chandelier a un corps vide (sance haussire). Le corps du deuxime chandelier recouvre entirement le corps du premier chandelier. Le recouvrement haussier indique que les acheteurs prennent le dessus sur les vendeurs. Cest une figure qui dbouche gnralement sur une tendance haussire de plus ou moins longue dure. La ralisation de cette figure est dautant plus fiable quelle est accompagne de volumes importants sur le deuxime chandelier. Les figures de lanalyse technique x 99 La figure 77 nous montre un recouvrement haussier sur Michelin le 5 fvrier 2001. Ce recouvrement, accompagn de volumes de transactions significatifs est lorigine de la mise en place dune tendance haussire. Figure 77. Exemple de recouvrement haussier Le Recouvrement Baissier: Figure baissire Un recouvrement baissier est compos dun premier chandelier vide (sance haussire) et dun second chandelier plein (sance baissire), le corps de ce dernier venant recouvrir intgralement le corps du premier. Pour tre valide, cette figure doit apparatre dans une tendance haussire tablie. Le recouvrement du corps du chandelier haussier par 100 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors celui du chandelier baissier indique que les vendeurs ont pris le dessus sur les acheteurs. La tendance haussire volue gnralement vers une tendance baissire ou vers une phase de consolidation. Cette figure est donc trs souvent lorigine dune nouvelle rsistance, mais elle peut se former lemplacement dune rsistance dj existante. Figure 78. Exemple de recouvrement baissier On peut voir un exemple de recouvrement baissier sur la figure 78 (Michelin) la fin dune phase haussire. Cette figure est lorigine du retournement de la phase haussire en phase baissire. Les figures de lanalyse technique x 101 Le Nuage Noir: Figure baissire Cette figure est un recouvrement baissier partiel, dans la mesure o le corps du chandelier haussier est recouvert plus de la moiti par le corps du chandelier baissier. Pour tre valide, cette figure doit apparatre dans une tendance haussire tablie. Elle dbouche gnralement sur une tendance baissire de plus ou moins longue dure. L ouverture du second chandelier doit seffectuer au dessus du corps du premier chandelier et doit avoir un corps suffisamment long pour recouvrir au moins 50 du corps du chandelier haussier. Plus la zone de recouvrement est importante, plus la figure est fiable. Figure 79. Exemple de Nuage Noir 102 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors La figure 79 (Ciments franais), avec une reprsentation en chandeliers japonais journaliers, nous montre la cration dun nuage noir qui est lorigine dune baisse momentane du titre. La Pntrante. Figure haussire Cette figure est un recouvrement haussier partiel, dans la mesure o le corps du chandelier baissier est recouvert plus de la moiti par le corps du chandelier haussier. Cette figure doit apparatre dans une tendance baissire tablie pour tre valide. Elle conduit alors un arrt de cette tendance et ltablissement dune phase de fondation ouet de retournement de tendance (transformation de tendance baissire en tendance haussire). L ouverture du second chandelier doit seffectuer en dessous du corps du premier chandelier et doit avoir un corps suffisamment long pour recouvrir au moins de 50 du corps du chandelier baissier. Plus la zone de recouvrement est importante, plus la figure est fiable. Figure 80. Exemple de Pntrante Les figures de lanalyse technique x 103 La figure 80 (Socit Gnrale) montre un exemple de Pntrante, lorigine de larrt de la tendance baissire et de la mise en place dune tendance haussire aprs une courte phase de fondation. L toile du matin: Figure haussire Ltoile du matin est compose de 3 chandeliers. Le premier est baissier, le second haussier ou baissier et le troisime est haussier. Le corps du second chandelier doit tre positionn au dessous du corps du premier chandelier et le corps du troisime chandelier doit recouvrir une partie significative du corps du premier chandelier. Cette figure doit apparatre dans une tendance baissire pour tre valide. Elle conduit alors un retournement de tendance (transformation de tendance baissire en tendance haussire). Il nest pas obligatoire que le troisime chandelier ouvre au dessus du corps du second chandelier, mais une telle configuration influence favorablement la ralisation de la figure. Figure 81. Exemple dtoile du matin 104 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors La figure 81 (BNP Paribas) montre une toile du matin qui inverse la tendance baissire de la courbe en tendance haussire. L toile du matin DOJI: Figure haussire Cette figure est une variante de ltoile du matin, dans la mesure o le corps du second chandelier est trs mince. Cette figure est caractristique dun mcanisme dinversion de tendance en trois temps: sur le premier chandelier haussier les acheteurs sont toujours matres des cours (ils orientent les cours la baisse) sur le deuxime chandelier, il y a rquilibrage entre acheteurs et vendeurs, le cours de clture devenant gal au cours douverture sur le troisime chandelier, les vendeurs deviennent matres des cours (ils fixent les cours la hausse). Figure 82. Exemple dtoile du matin DOJI Les figures de lanalyse technique x 105 Nous pouvons voir un trs bel exemple dtoile du matin Doji sur la courbe de TF1 (figure 82). Sur cette figure on note bien linversion de la tendance baissire en tendance haussire. L toile du soir: Figure baissire Ltoile du soir est compose de 3 chandeliers. Le premier est haussier, le second haussier ou baissier et le troisime est baissier. Le corps du second chandelier doit tre positionn au-dessus des corps des 2 autres chandeliers. Cette figure apparat en haut de tendance haussire et est une figure fiable de retournement de tendance. Elle est de ce fait lorigine de la cration dune nouvelle rsistance. Cette figure est encore plus fiable lorsque le corps du troisime chandelier est en dessous du corps du second chandelier. Figure 83. Exemple dtoile du soir 106 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Un bel exemple dtoile du soir est donn sur la courbe du NASDAQ (figure 83). Celle-ci cre une rsistance de fait 4248. L toile du Soir DOJI. Figure baissire Cette figure est une variante de ltoile du soir, dans la mesure o le corps du second chandelier est trs mince. Cette figure apparat en haut de tendance haussire. Cest une figure fiable de renversement de tendance. Cette figure est caractristique dun mcanisme dinversion de tendance en trois temps: sur le premier chandelier haussier les vendeurs sont toujours matres des cours (ils orientent les cours la hausse) sur le deuxime chandelier, il y a rquilibrage entre acheteurs et vendeurs, le cours de clture devenant gal au cours douverture sur le troisime chandelier, les acheteurs deviennent matres des cours (ils orientent les cours la baisse). Figure 84. Exemple dtoile du soir DOJI Les figures de lanalyse technique x 107 Un trs bel exemple dtoile du soir Doji nous est donn sur la courbe de Club Mditerrane (figure 84). Cette figure est lorigine du renversement de la tendance haussire en tendance baissire. Le Harami: Figure dinterruption ou de renversement de tendance Dans une figure Harami, le corps du chandelier du jour est entirement incrust dans le corps du chandelier prcdent. Cette figure peut apparatre dans une tendance haussire ou baissire et anticipe une interruption ou un renversement de cette tendance. Dans une figure Harami, les deux chandeliers ne doivent pas ncessairement tre de couleur oppose. En pratique, cette configuration est pourtant courante. Mme si le Harami peut tre considr comme une figure de renversement, elle na pas la mme fiabilit quun pendu, une figure de recouvrement ou une toile. La prsence dun Harami dans une courbe dvolution doit plutt tre interprte comme un ralentissement de la tendance prsente. Il existe une variante de la figure Harami, qui sappelle la croix Harami et pour laquelle le deuxime chandelier forme une figure doji (corps inexistant). Cette figure ne possde pas plus de fiabilit que la figure Harami simple. 108 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Openmirrors Figure 85. Exemple de Harami On peut observer une figure Harami ci-dessus (figure 85, SP500) en fin de phase de fondation. Cette figure apparat sur la deuxime paule dune figure en W (figure haussire), la premire tant accompagne de la prsence dun marteau. Les trois corbeaux noirs: Figure de continuation baissire La figure des trois corbeaux noirs est compose de trois chandeliers successifs baissiers (corps plein), dont les cours douverture sont constamment plus bas. Cest une figure de continuation baissire. Les trois corbeaux noirs est lune des rares figure de continuation en chandeliers japonais. Elle est relativement fiable et doit attirer Les figures de lanalyse technique x 109 lattention de lanalyste lorsquelle se prsente dans une tendance baissire dj tablie. Figure 86. Exemple de trois corbeaux noirs Sur la figure 86, nous pouvons voir le Dow-Jones percer son support 10800. La prsence de trois corbeaux noirs indique que la baisse, initie fin aot 2001, va se poursuivre. Les trois soldats blancs. Figure de continuation haussire La figure des trois soldats blancs est une figure compose de trois chandeliers successifs haussiers (corps vide), dont les cours douverture sont constamment plus haut. Cest une figure de continuation haussire. Les trois soldats blancs est avec les trois corbeaux noirs lune des rares figures de continuation en chandeliers japonais. Elle 110 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors est relativement fiable et doit attirer lattention de lanalyste lorsquelle se prsente dans une tendance haussire dj tablie. Fgure 87. Exemple de trois soldats blancs Sur la figure 87, nous pouvons voir EURAZEO franchir sa rsistance 57.5 euros le 12 Janvier 2005. La prsence de trois soldats blancs au moment de cette cassure nous indique que ce nouveau mouvement de hausse va se poursuivre. L toile filante: figure baissire Ltoile filante est un chandelier avec un corps trs fin par rapport lombre haute et na pas dombre basse. Elle peut avoir un corps vide ou plein. Cette figure apparat en gnral dans une zone de consolidation et anticipe ltablissement dune tendance baissire. Cette figure se rencontre souvent (mais pas uniquement) proximit de zones de rsistance dj tablies, zones que la figure vient tesLes figures de lanalyse technique x 111 ter. La prsence dune ombre haute longue indique que le march est venu tester profondment et sans succs cette zone de rsistance. Figure 88. Exemple dtoile filante Sur la figure 88 (BNP PARIBAS), nous pouvons voir la courbe tester, dbut janvier la rsistance 46.5 euros et constituer une figure en toile filante. Le test ngatif de cette rsistance conduit un repli des cours partir de cette date. Les Gaps Les Gaps (mot anglais signifiant: saut) ne sont pas proprement parler des figures mais des configurations techniques particulires. Un Gap se traduit sur la courbe de laction par une discontinuit des cours entre deux sances de bourse conscutives. Lorsquun Gap se 112 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors cre sur une courbe, cela signifie quil ny a pas eu de transactions pour les cours situs dans la zone du Gap. Figure 89. Le principe du Gap Les Gaps peuvent se former lors du franchissement dun support (ou dune rsistance) de bonne qualit ou du franchissement dune Moyenne Mobile ou encore la sortie dune figure graphique, comme celles que nous avons tudies prcdemment. La prsence dun Gap sexplique alors par le fait que les transactions ont t concentres Figure 90. Exemple de Gap de rupture Les figures de lanalyse technique x 113 autour des valeurs cls que sont les diffrents supports ou rsistances en prsence, et que ceux-ci ont cr une sorte de vide de loffre ou de la demande autour deux. Sur la courbe dAccor (figure 90), on peut voir un exemple de Gap en septembre 2004 entre 34.57 et 34 euros, lors du franchissement la baisse de la Moyenne Mobile 100 par la courbe des cours. Il existe une lgende en analyse technique qui consiste croire que la formation dun Gap est toujours suivie court terme dune remonte du cours de laction afin de combler le vide cre (on parle de recouvrement du Gap): cette lgende est fausse. Il existe en effet certains types de Gaps qui ne sont jamais combls: Les Gaps de continuation (ou runaway gap ) se produisent dans une tendance bien tablie et se font dans le sens de la tendance. Ils viennent en quelque sorte confirmer la tendance tablie et lui redonnent une deuxime force (un peu comme le franchissement dun second support ou rsistance). Ils ne sont jamais combls (sils ltaient, la confirmation de la tendance serait annihile). Les Gaps de rupture (ou breakaway gap ) se rencontrent lors de la cassure dune zone de consolidation, dune Moyenne Mobile ou dune figure graphique. La courbe dAccor (figure 90) est un exemple de ce type de Gap (bien noter le rle de rsistance jou par ce Gap, fin novembre 2004) Dautres types de Gaps sont plus couramment combls: Les Gaps communs (ou common gap ) sont les Gaps les plus frquemment rencontrs en analyse technique. Ils se produisent dans une phase de consolidation ou de fondation et sont gnralement le fait dun manque de liquidit. Ces Gaps sont rapidement combls (en moins de 10 sances, gnralement). Casino Guichard (figure 91) nous fournit un exemple de Gap combl, dans une phase de consolidation. 114 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 91. Exemple de Gap commun Les Gaps dpuisement (ou exhaustion Gap ) marquent la fin dune tendance. Ils accompagnent gnralement une figure de retournement, par exemple une figure en ttes et paules, lors du franchissement de la ligne de cou. En conclusion, il faut donc tre prudent avec les Gaps et ne pas trop attendre une correction qui ne viendra peut-tre jamais. Les figures de lanalyse technique x 115 Openmirrors Openmirrors CHAPITRE 5 LES INDICATEURS TECHNIQUES Les diffrents types dindicateurs techniques Les indicateurs techniques effectuent des calculs sur les cours et les volumes dune action ou dun indice. Comme pour les Moyennes Mobiles, le calcul est effectu pour chaque point de la courbe des cours et le rsultat est reprsent graphiquement sur une autre courbe dispose sous la courbe des cours. La courbe de lindicateur peut tre analyse comme une courbe des cours en dtectant des tendances, des supports et des rsistances et surtout y tre compare, les deux courbes tant reprsentes avec la mme chelle de temps. Il existe une multitude dindicateurs disponibles sur les logiciels danalyse technique, dont la plupart ont t invents par des analystes techniques amricains. Ils peuvent tre classs principalement en 5 catgories:les indicateurs de tendance, les oscillateurs, les indicateurs bass sur les volumes, les indicateurs statistiques, les indicateurs de comparaison avec un autre indice. Dans ce chapitre nous aborderons les quatre premiers types dindicateurs et nous retiendrons ceux qui sont le plus utiliss dans le monde Les indicateurs techniques x 117 de lanalyse technique. Les indicateurs de comparaison (lindicateur de progression relative) seront dvelopps dans le chapitre 6. Les indicateurs de tendance En analyse technique, nous avons vu limportance des Moyennes Mobiles pour dterminer la prsence ou non dune tendance sur une courbe. Une Moyenne Mobile croissante signifie ltablissement dune tendance haussire, tandis quune Moyenne Mobile dcroissante signifie ltablissement dune tendance baissire. En mesurant la pente de la Moyenne Mobile, on peut donc se faire une ide assez correcte de la tendance en cours. Cest le principe retenu pour le calcul de la vitesse. Nanmoins, cette mesure reste intimement lie au choix de la longueur de la Moyenne Mobile, qui est arbitraire. Pour viter cet inconvnient, il est ncessaire de recourir des indicateurs plus universels: les indicateurs de mouvement directionnel (DMI). Lindicateur de vitesse La vitesse est tout simplement la pente dune Moyenne Mobile longue. Une vitesse ngative signifie une tendance baissire. Une vitesse positive signifie une tendance haussire. Une vitesse nulle (ou proche de zro) signifie labsence de tendance. Mais les valeurs de la vitesse ne sont pas les seules informations susceptibles dtre analyses. Ses variations (encore appeles acclrations) donnent des informations autrement plus intressantes. En effet, une vitesse se mettant dcrotre aprs une phase de croissance signifie que la pente de la Moyenne Mobile devient moins forte et que la tendance tablie est en train de sessouffler. Ce signal doit tre interprt comme une anticipation de renversement de tendance mais pas ncessairement comme un signal de vente. L action peut 118 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors tout simplement voluer vers une phase de consolidation et il vaut mieux attendre que la tendance se soit effectivement inverse (traverse de la Moyenne Mobile par la courbe des cours) pour vendre effectivement. Figure 92. Exemple dindicateur de vitesse Sur la figure 92, on voit bien que cest au moment o la vitesse est maximale (cest--dire au moment o la pente de la Moyenne Mobile est maximale) que la Moyenne Mobile se renverse. elle se tourne vers le bas au lieu de se tourner vers le haut. Mais la Moyenne Mobile ne se met dcrotre quaprs lannulation de la vitesse. Lorsque la vitesse commence baisser, cela signifie quun flchissement de la tendance est en cours mais pas ncessairement quelle va se retourner: lorsque la vitesse baisse mais quelle est encore positive, les cours continuent grimper car nous sommes encore dans une tendance haussire (la vitesse est positive). On parle alors de diver - Les indicateurs techniques x 119 gence entre la courbe de laction et celle de son indicateur car les deux courbes voluent dans des directions opposes. Figure 93. Diffrentes phases dune action analyses avec lindicateur de vitesse La courbe dAccor (figure 93) accompagne de lindicateur de vitesse peut tre interprte de la manire suivante: Au point A, la vitesse commence crotre et la courbe des cours sloigne de sa Moyenne Mobile: nous entrons dans une phase haussire (phase 1 du cycle dvolution). Au point B la vitesse commence dcrotre et on observe simultanment un flchissement de la Moyenne Mobile. laction est en train dvoluer vers une phase de consolidation (phase 2 du cycle dvolution). Au point C la vitesse devient ngative: la Moyenne Mobile se met dcrotre et nous entrons en phase baissire (phase 3 du cycle dvolution). 120 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Par similarit, une vitesse ngative se remettant crotre signifie que la pente de la Moyenne Mobile est en train de se redresser et que la tendance baissire est en train de spuiser. laction a de fortes chances dvoluer vers une phase de fondation. Sur la courbe Wendel Investissement (figure 94) ci-dessous, on distingue nettement une tendance baissire accompagne dune vitesse ngative partir du point A. Figure 94. volution de la vitesse et phase de fondation Au point B la vitesse est minimale et la Moyenne Mobile se renverse (elle commence se tourner vers le haut): la valeur rentre en phase de fondation. NB: L indicateur de Vitesse nest pas toujours disponible dans les logiciels danalyse technique1. Voici, une formule qui vous permettra 1. L indicateur Vitesse est accessible depuis mon site web. anatech2.free. fr (rubrique Logiciel ) tous les lecteurs de mon livre, de mme que tous les autres indicateurs, systmes de trading et screeners dcrits dans ce livre. Les indicateurs techniques x 121 de construire cet indicateur, avec le logiciel ProrealTime, dcrit au chapitre 18: REM Calcul de la Vitesse MaMoyenneAverage50(Close) IF MaMoyenne10 THEN Indicateur 100(MaMoyenne - MaMoyenne1)MaMoyenne1 ELSE Indicateur0 ENDIF VitesseAverage10(Indicateur) Return Vitesse Les indicateurs de mouvement directionnel (DMI) Il existe non pas un, mais deux indicateurs DMI: le DMI qui dtecte la prsence dune tendance haussire, et le DMI , qui dtecte la prsence dune tendance baissire. Ces deux signaux sont tracs simultanment avec la mme chelle de temps. Les formules qui permettent de calculer ces deux indicateurs sont un peu fastidieuses. Pour simplifier nous dirons que le DMI mesure la capacit de la courbe de laction tablir de nouveaux plus haut . Le DMI mesure la capacit tablir de nouveaux plus bas . Lorsque les deux courbes voluent trs proches lune de lautre, cela signifie quil ny a pas de tendance tablie. Lorsque les deux courbes sloignent lune de lautre, cela signifie quune tendance est en train de stablir: haussire si le DMI devient suprieur au DMI et baissire si le DMI devient suprieur au DMI . 122 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 95. Exemple dvolution du DMI et du DMI La position relative de ces deux courbes est donc tudier avec beaucoup dattention. En particulier, un croisement net des deux courbes DMI signifie un renversement de tendance et peut tre utilis comme signal dachat ou de vente suivant le cas. La courbe dAccor (figure 95) nous montre une tendance haussire avec un DMI suprieur au DMI et une phase baissire avec un DMI suprieur au DMI . Pendant la phase de consolidation le DMI et le DMI voluent proximit lun de lautre. Lindicateur ADX (Average Directionnal Index) L indicateur ADX effectue la diffrence du DMI et du DMI . Cette diffrence est ensuite moyenne (filtre) par une Moyenne Mobile de type exponentiel, pour liminer les variations non significatives. L ADX, exprim sous forme de pourcentage, permet de mesuLes indicateurs techniques x 123 rer la force dune tendance (haussire ou baissire). Un ADX suprieur 25 et croissant valide ltablissement dune tendance. Sur la courbe dAccor (figure 95) on voit nettement les croissances dADX ltablissement de la phase haussire et ltablissement de la phase baissire: un ADX qui crot nest pas synonyme dun signal dachat mais synonyme de ltablissement dune tendance. Pour connatre le sens de la tendance il faut regarder la position de la courbe DMI par rapport celle de la courbe DMI-. Il est dailleurs intressant de constater que lADX est en avance par rapport la vitesse car le renversement de lADX se produit avant le renversement de vitesse. Ceci est d au fait que la vitesse est un indicateur driv des Moyennes Mobiles et possde donc un retard intrinsque alors que lADX est calcul directement sur les valeurs des cours de laction. Lindicateur MACD L indicateur MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) effectue la diffrence de deux Moyennes Mobiles exponentielles calcules sur les cours: une Moyenne Mobile courte (par dfaut 12 sances) et une Moyenne Mobile longue (par dfaut 26 sances). Une autre courbe, appele signal, est galement trace simultanment avec la MACD: celle-ci est la Moyenne Mobile exponentielle (par dfaut 9 sances) de la MACD. L indicateur de MACD sutilise de trois manires diffrentes: en analysant le signe de la MACD: une MACD positive signifie que la Moyenne Mobile courte est au-dessus de la Moyenne Mobile longue et que nous sommes probablement dans une tendance haussire. Une MACD ngative signifie que la Moyenne Mobile courte est au-dessous de la Moyenne Mobile longue et que nous sommes probablement dans une tendance baissire. 124 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors en analysant la position relative de la MACD par rapport au signal. Lorsque la MACD passe au-dessus du signal, elle cre un signal dachat. Lorsquelle passe en-dessous, elle cre un signal de vente. en comparant lvolution de la MACD par rapport lvolution des cours. Lorsque les volutions sont convergentes (les cours et la MACD croissent simultanment ou dcroissent simultanment), la tendance des cours est confirme. Lorsque ces volutions sont divergentes (cours croissants et MACD dcroissante, ou bien cours dcroissants et MACD croissante), la tendance risque vraisemblablement de sinverser. Figure 96. Exemple de convergence puis de divergence entre la MACD et la courbe des cours Entre les points A et B de la courbe dAccor figure 96, la MACD est bien positive et croissante et accompagne la tendance haussire de laction. Entre les points B et C, il y a une divergence entre la courbe de laction qui dmarre une phase de consolidation (tout en restant Les indicateurs techniques x 125 haussire) et celle de lindicateur qui est baissire. Ceci signifie que la tendance haussire est en train de spuiser et quun renversement de tendance risque de se produire. Au point C, la MACD rebondit sur son Signal (cest--dire sa Moyenne Mobile) qui agit comme une rsistance (signal baissier), et il y a surtout un clair signal de vente (traverse vers le bas de la Moyenne Mobile par la courbe des cours). Les oscillateurs Les oscillateurs sont des indicateurs qui fournissent des signaux court terme dachat ou de vente. Ces indicateurs sont exprims en pourcentage et oscillent entre 0 et 100 do leur nom. On distingue une zone basse en-dessous de 30 , appele zone de survente, une zone haute au-dessus de 70 appele zone de sur-achat, et une zone neutre situe entre ces deux zones. Lorsque loscillateur est en zone de sur-achat, cela signifie que le cours de laction a trop bien progress par rapport ses variations rcentes et quune correction la baisse est attendre. Un signal de vente est gnralement lanc lorsque lindicateur quitte la zone de survente et quil passe en-dessous de la barre des 70 pour rentrer en zone neutre. Lorsque loscillateur est en zone de survente, cela signifie que le cours de laction a trop baiss par rapport ses variations rcentes, et quune hausse du cours est attendre. Un signal dachat est gnralement lanc lorsque lindicateur quitte la zone de survente et quil passe au-dessus de la barre des 30 pour rentrer en zone neutre. 126 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 97. Les paliers de sur-vente et de sur-achat Ces signaux dachat et de vente peuvent tre utiliss dans des marchs tendance peu marque (zones de fondation ou consolidation ADX faible). Nanmoins ces signaux dachat et de vente sont des signaux court terme, et je ne recommande pas leur utilisation dans une position investisseur. Ils ne doivent pas non plus tre utiliss lorsquune tendance est bien tablie (vrifier la valeur de lADX) car les notions de surachat ou de survente nont pas beaucoup de sens dans une tendance bien tablie (le long terme prime sur le court terme). Une utilisation des oscillateurs pour le long terme consiste par contre analyser les convergences ou les divergences entre lvolution de laction et celle de son indicateur, comme nous allons le voir. Le RSI Le RSI (Relative Strength Index) est loscillateur le plus connu et le plus utilis. Il sobtient partir du calcul suivant: RSI 100 (100(1 HB)) o H total des hausses (valeurs), sur les n prcdentes sances. B total des baisses (valeurs) sur les n prcdentes sances. n est paramtrable et gnralement pris gal 14. Il y a plusieurs manires dutiliser le RSI. Les indicateurs techniques x 127 La premire consiste utiliser les signaux dachat et de vente lorsque le RSI quitte les zones de sur-achat ou de survente. Pour utiliser convenablement ces signaux, il faut vrifier que laction nest pas dans une tendance haussire ou baissire trop marque. On pourra sen assurer en traant la courbe de lADX, qui devra rester infrieur 0,3 pendant toute cette priode. Une telle stratgie applique sur Saint-Gobain (figure 98) de 1992 2005, conduit effectuer 25 transactions dont 20 rentables. Figure 98. Exemple danalyse de la courbe RSI La courbe du RSI peut galement sanalyser comme une courbe des cours sur laquelle on recherche la prsence de supports et de rsistances, de tendances et mme de figures boursires. Il arrive frquemment que des configurations particulires apparaissent sur la courbe du RSI et pas sur la courbe des cours. Dans ce cas, il y a tout lieu de les interprter comme il se doit, cest--dire comme des signaux dachat ou de vente que lon pourrait lire directement sur la courbe des cours. Une figure Tte et Epaules apparaissant sur un RSI doit 128 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors par exemple tre interprte comme un signal de vente sur la valeur, mme si une telle figure napparat pas sur la courbe des cours. Une autre manire dutiliser le RSI consiste reprer les convergences et les divergences de tendance entre la courbe des cours et celle de son indicateur. Pour cela, on observe les tendances respectives de la courbe des cours et celle de lindicateur. Lorsque les deux courbes ont la mme tendance (toutes deux croissantes ou toutes deux dcroissantes), alors il y a une confirmation de la tendance des cours. Lorsque les deux courbes ont des tendances diffrentes, alors un renversement de tendance est prvoir pour la courbe des cours. Figure 99. Exemple de RSI Sur la courbe de Dassault systmes (figure 99), on observe une configuration haussire pour le RSI de novembre dcembre 99, tandis que les cours franchissent une rsistance 40 et commencent Les indicateurs techniques x 129 monter: il y a une convergence entre la courbe des cours et celle du RSI (confirmation du signal dachat). partir de janvier 2000, le RSI devient baissier, alors que les cours continuent grimper: il y a divergence entre la courbe des cours et celle du RSI: la tendance haussire est en train de spuiser. Une correction seffectuera peu de temps aprs. En mars 2000, le RSI est galement baissier, alors que la valeur tablit de nouveaux plus hauts. Cette nouvelle divergence conduira la valeur dans une phase baissire partir de fin mars. Le Stochastique (S (t)) Le Stochastique ( K) est galement un oscillateur trs utilis dans les salles de march et sobtient partir du calcul suivant: K 100 (C (t) L)(H L) Avec: C (t) Cours au temps t L cours le plus bas des n sances prcdentes, H cours le plus haut des n sances prcdentes, (n est paramtrable et est fix 14 par dfaut). Le Stochastique est toujours reprsent simultanment avec sa Moyenne Mobile D dont la formule est la suivante: D(t) (23 D(t-1) 13 K) 130 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 100. Exemple de Stochastique (K) Le Stochastique sanalyse en convergence divergence, comme le RSI. Sur la courbe dAccor (figure 100) on peut par exemple distinguer deux zones de convergence: en phase haussire, de dcembre 95 avril 1996, en dbut de phase baissire, davril juin 96. Lindicateur CCI L indicateur CCI (Commodity Channel Index) a dabord t invent pour suivre les cours des matires premires (Commodities). Son utilisation sest rapidement tendue dautres marchs, notamment celui des actions. Il se calcule de la manire suivante: Y(t) 13( plus haut plus bas clture) Ym(t) Moyenne Mobile de Y(t) calcul sur 10 jours D 110 (Somme Abs((Y(t) Ym(t)). la somme tant pratique sur 10 sances Les indicateurs techniques x 131 O Abs (Y-Ym) reprsente la valeur absolue de lcart entre Y et sa Moyenne Mobile CCI ( Y(t)-Ym(t)) (0.015D) Le CCI mesure lcart journalier entre le cours moyen et sa Moyenne Mobile, par rapport 1,5 de la fluctuation moyenne de cet cart, mesur sur une priode de 10 jours. Le CCI sinterprte de deux manires: Comme un indicateur de sur-achat et de survente: le CCI varie le plus souvent entre 100 et 100. Lorsquil dpasse la valeur 100, il dclenche un signal de vente, car la valeur est en sur-achat. Lorsquil est en dessous de 100, il dclenche un signal dachat car la valeur est en sur-vente. Comme un oscillateur dont on peut observer les convergences et les divergences avec la courbe des cours: lorsque la courbe des cours produit de nouveaux plus hauts, que le CCI narr ive pas reproduire, alors il y a de grandes chances de voir les cours corriger la baisse. La courbe de Cap Gemini, figure 101, montre successivement une convergence et une divergence du CCI avec la courbe des cours. Figure 101. Exemple danalyse du CCI (Commodity Channel Index) 132 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Loscillateur sur Moyenne Mobile Malgr son nom, loscillateur sur Moyenne Mobile nest pas proprement parler un oscillateur car il ne varie pas entre les valeurs fixes 0 et 100. Nanmoins son comportement oscillant lui permet dtre utilis comme tel. L oscillateur sur Moyenne Mobile (encore appel oscillateur ) effectue la diffrence entre la Moyenne Mobile court terme et la Moyenne Mobile long terme, le choix des deux longueurs de ces Moyennes Mobiles tant fait par lutilisateur. On utilise gnralement une Moyenne Mobile court terme de 20 sances et une Moyenne Mobile long terme de 100 sances pour tracer loscillateur. Figure 102. Exemple danalyse de loscillateur sur Moyenne Mobile Les indicateurs techniques x 133 L oscillateur mesure la diffrence entre la tendance court terme et la tendance long terme. On peut donc dire quun oscillateur positif est haussier, tandis quun oscillateur ngatif est baissier. Mais on peut galement sintresser aux tendances de cet indicateur, ce qui apporte des informations encore plus intressantes: un oscillateur haussier signifie quune tendance haussire est vraisemblablement en train de stablir ou quune tendance baissire est en train de sachever. Un oscillateur baissier signifie quune tendance baissire est vraisemblablement en train de stablir ou quune tendance haussire est en train de sachever. La Courbe dAccor (figure 102) est reprsente avec deux Moyennes Mobiles de longueur 20 et 50 respectivement. L oscillateur reprsent sur cette figure effectue la diffrence entre ces deux Moyennes Mobiles. On peut noter une divergence entre la courbe des cours et cet indicateur partir de mai 1998. Le momentum Le momentum effectue simplement la diffrence entre le cours de clture dune sance et le cours de clture dune autre sance passe, lintervalle de temps entre ces deux sances tant laiss au choix de lutilisateur. Momentum (t) cours (t) cours (t n) n tant paramtrable et gnralement choisi gal 14. 134 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Figure 103. Exemple danalyse du Momentum Le momentum ne varie pas entre 0 et 100 mais il est nanmoins considr comme un vritable oscillateur et utilis comme tel par les spcialistes en analyse technique. Sur la courbe dAccor (figure 103), le Momentum est croissant de janvier fvrier 98 et accompagne le dmarrage dune tendance haussire (convergence). Il devient baissier partir de juin 1998 alors que les cours continuent monter (divergence). L analyse des tendances prsentes dans un Momentum peut savrer aussi particulirement efficace pour gnrer des signaux dachat et de vente sur la courbe des cours. Pour faire cette tude, on recherche sur la courbe du Momentum toutes les tendances haussires significatives (alignement dau moins trois sommets) et toutes les tendances baissires significatives (alignement dau moins trois plus bas ) de lindicateur. Puis on recherche les endroits o la courbe du Momentum croise les tendances prsentes. Les indicateurs techniques x 135 Sur le Momentum dAccor reprsent ci-dessous (figure 104), on a pu tracer 2 tendances baissires et 1 tendance haussire, et gnrer 2 signaux dachat (A) et un signal de vente (V). Figure 104: Momentum et signaux dachat et de vente Les indicateurs bass sur les volumes Comme nous lavons dj vu en analyse technique, ltude des volumes est dune grande importance pour valider le dmarrage dune tendance durable. On comprend bien quune cassure de rsistance sur faibles volumes de transactions, cest--dire avec peu de changements de mains, a peu de chance de conduire une hausse significative des cours de laction. De plus, une tendance haussire tablie a besoin dtre accompagne de volumes de transactions significatifs pour tre prenne. L ide est donc venue certains analystes techniques de mesurer des forces dachat et de vente en calculant des indicateurs bass sur les cours et les volumes. 136 x Guide complet de lanalyse technique Openmirrors Lindicateur OBV (On Balance Volume) L OBV est calcul de la manire suivante: le volume des transactions pour un jour donn est ajout lOBV des jours prcdents, lorsque les cours sont en hausse. Il est retranch ce mme cumul, lorsque les cours sont en baisse: OBV (t) OBV (t 1) Volume (t) si Cours (t) Cours (t 1), OBV (t) OBV (t 1) Volume (t) si Cours (t) indicator15 REM Les cours doivent tre suprieurs la Moyenne Mobile c2CloseAverage50 REM Lcart avec la MM ne doit pas tre trop important indicator2average20(close) EcartCMABS(close-indicator2)close c3EcartCMmamoyenne1) REM 2e critere dachat sur les Volumes monvolume Volume moyennevolume Average20(Volume) critere2 (monvolume moyennevolume) REM Condition dachat IF critere1 AND critere2 THEN BUY 100CAPITAL AT MARKET THISBARONCLOSE ENDIF REM Critere deVente critere3 (mamoyenne mamoyenne1). - Il dfinit ensuite le deuxime critre dachat (critere2) bas sur les volumes. Pour cela, il dfinit un indicateur (monvolume) qui est le volume de transactions de la sance en cours et sa moyenne mobile sur 20 sances (moyennevolume Average20(Volume)). Le deuxime critre dachat (critere2) est rempli lorsque le volume de transactions est suprieur sa moyenne mobile. (critere2 (monvolume moyennevolume)). Une condition dachat est passe lorsque le critre 1 et le critre 2 sont remplis simultanment. IF critere1 AND critere2 THEN BUY 100CAPITAL AT MARKET THISBARONCLOSE ENDIF Il dfinit ensuite le critre de vente (critere 3): mamoyenne doit tre baissiere. (critere3 (mamoyenne mamoyenne5) REM 2e critere dachat sur lADX indicator1ADX14 critere2indicator1indicator15 AND indicator120 REM Condition dachat IF critere1 AND critere2 THEN BUY 100 CAPITAL AT MARKET THISBARONCLOSE ENDIF REM Critere deVente critere3 (mamoyenne EntryIndex ASavalement-haussier) AND (Close